Weekly reading – 21st January 2023

What I wrote last week

Goldman Sachs Credit Card Portfolio – Apple Card

Business

SHORT-TERM vs LONG-TERM. Nick Sleep’s letters and insights are always valuable. Many companies claim to be all about long-term, but their actions scream the opposite. The list of characteristics by Nick (by no means are they complete) should help analysts see whether a company is about long-term growth or short-term wins. It is also a good checklist for executives whenever they want to evaluate their business.

Google Cloud Introduces Shelf Inventory AI Tool for Retailers. The premise of this technology sounds very interesting. Less human labor and more automation as well as data analytics. However, as the article indicates, it’s tricky to put this technology in practice. The first challenge is to perfect the algorithm. Given time, this should be feasible. The bigger challenge is cost. Imagine arming a Walmart Supercenter with cameras that can scan every aisle, level and product.

The Art and Science of Spending Money. As always, great writing and a lot of wisdom from Morgan Housel. This quote stood out from the rest for me: “Frugality, quite simply, is about choosing the things you love enough to spend extravagantly on—and then cutting costs mercilessly on the things you don’t love.”

Chick-fil-A franchise disclosure document. This may be a dry read, but this document shares the core details of Chick-fil-A’s standard franchise agreement. For instance, while the initial down payment is just $10,000, a franchisee will have to pay quite a lot of fees which can push the total investment to north of $2 million. Furthermore, readers can learn that Chick-fil-A earned almost $5.8 billion in revenue in 2021 and around $1.1 billion in profit. The net margin of 18% is much lower than the 32% that McDonald’s posted in 2021. That implies there is a significant difference between the two models.

Disney defended itself and Bob Iger against an activist investor Nelson Peltz. File it under a “business schools need to teach this” folder

Behind Disney’s Activist Investor Battle: A Marvel Mogul’s Revenge Play. A juicy article on the internal political struggle at Disney. As an investor, I am concerned about the turmoil at the top at Disney. Any company of the size and complexity of Disney must have steady and competent leadership to navigate treacherous macro-conditions and weather the fierce competition in the media industry. There has been anything but that at the iconic company since early 2020. Given that Bob Iger only has a two-year contract, this will not be solved any time soon.

Inside Elon Musk’s “extremely hardcore” Twitter. Musk has done tremendous damage to his reputation and image with the whole Twitter saga. And oh, it’s just merely started

Whole Foods charts a new course. There is nothing described in the article that convinces me Whole Foods will be in a stronger position 5 years from now. Enabling shoppers to return Zappos stuff in store? That’s just like Kohl’s. An apprenticeship to learn butchering? Yeah, that’s going to be tremendously popular. What about 3,000 local products in store? Well, it’s going to relate so much to shoppers who will have to pay a lot more just so they can feel more local.

Other stuff I find interesting

Mexico’s subway drivers depend on WhatsApp to keep the trains running. It’s both fascinating and horrifying that train workers in Mexico rely on their phones and particularly Whatsapp to keep the trains running

Lessons from the Streets of Tokyo. To copy the approach that Tokyo takes to build streets, a city in America needs to have a solid public infrastructure. Otherwise, narrow streets wouldn’t be able to handle thousands of people, especially in rush hour.

Kale, Brussels sprouts, cauliflower, and cabbage are all varieties of a single magical plant species. I did not know about this. Fascinating!

How Much Income Do You Need to Be Rich? “We all live our lives relative to our expectations. This is true in our relationships, in our careers, and in our finances. So, if we want to feel rich, we only have two options—earn more or expect less. The choice is yours. Because, ultimately, your income doesn’t determine how rich you are, your desires do.

Stats

Each frame of the CGI scenes in Avatar’s sequel took 47 hours to render

British people withdrew money 30.2 million times from ATMs in 2022. The average withdrawal amount was 105 pounds

Source: Cleanenergywire

What We Know About Goldman Sachs Credit Card Portfolio – Apple Card

Traditionally known as an investment bank, Goldman Sachs did not usually count consumers among its clientele. The effort to venture into consumer banking started with its proprietary platform called Marcus. Then, in August 2019, GS launched its first ever credit card, Apple Card, in collaboration with Apple. In 2021, the bank announced that it was going to acquire the General Motors credit card portfolio from Capital One. The acquisition was only completed in February 2022, but it had some effect on Goldman Sachs’ balance sheet a few quarters prior to the completion (more on this later). Along with the GM portfolio, GS also added a platform for home improvement consumer loan originations in GreenSky.

It’s interesting to study the performance of Goldman Sachs’ consumer banking arm for two reasons. First, it will help us understand more how difficult and expensive it is to build and sell consumer banking products from scratch. Second, it is also a proxy of how the Apple Card has been doing, given the notorious secrecy of the Palo-Alto-based tech giant.

Housekeeping facts

  • Between Q3 2019 and Q3 2021, we can be sure that all credit card balance on GS’ balance sheet came from Apple Card. I confirmed it to a member of the bank’s Investor Relations team (see below)
  • The GM portfolio and the acquisition of Green Sky were both closed in Q1 2022. It’s safe to say that the bank only included the additional loan balance on its books by then. Said another way, all credit card balance through Q4 2021 was from Apple Card
  • Between Q1 2021 and Q4 2021, the bank’s lending commitments included their estimate of the GM portfolio’s balance of $2 billion. The exact language is: “Credit card commitments also includes approximately $2.0 billion relating to the firm’s commitment to acquire a credit card portfolio in connection with its agreement, in January 2021, to form a co-branded credit card relationship with General Motors. This amount represents the portfolio’s outstanding credit card loan balance as of September 2021. However, the final amount will depend on the outstanding balance of credit card loans at the closing of the acquisition, which is expected to occur by the first quarter of 2022.” (Source: Goldman Sachs Q3 2021 10Q)
  • The GM portfolio’s estimated balance of $2 billion as of September 2021 was down from the $3 billion figure reported in August 2020
  • Between Q1 and Q3 2022, GS credit card lending commitments (another term of the amount of credit lines extended by the bank to credit card customers) included $15 billion in credit lines from the GM portfolio. From Goldman Sachs Q3 2022 filing: “Credit card lines issued by the firm to consumers of $60.66 billion as of September 2022 and $33.97 billion as of December 2021. These credit card lines are cancellable by the firm. The increase in credit card lending commitments from December 2021 to September 2022 reflected approximately $15.0 billion relating to the firm’s acquisition of the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio in February 2022.”
  • Because lending commitments from the GM portfolio didn’t change over the last 9 months, even after the move closed, it’s quite safe to assume that credit card balance stays stagnant at $2 billion, give or take

Apple Card

Using the figures reported by Goldman Sachs and the facts mentioned above, I estimate that as of September 2022, the Apple Card portfolio had $12 billion in balance and $46 billion in credit lines. Those figures were significantly up from $3 billion in balance and $19 billion in commitments as of September 2020. That’s tremendous growth in just 24 months. At $12 billion in outstandings, Apple Card still trails behind the Amazon Prime Card, which is rumored to have $20 billions in comparison. But if Apple and Goldman Sachs can maintain this growth rate, that gap should be closed soon.

Apple Card Loan Balance & Commitments
Apple Card Loan Balance & Commitments

Apple and Goldman Sachs give me a $6,000 line on my Apple Card. Assuming that is the average credit line for every Apple Card holder, it would indicate that there are approximately 7.7 million customers in the portfolio ($46 billion divided by $6,000). The figure passed a sniff test to me when news outlets reported the GM book had 3 million customers and there were almost 500 million credit cards in the US. Furthermore, given the popularity of Apple devices in the US, where there are 330 million people in population, the Apple Card portfolio has a lot of room for growth in the future.

In addition, because credit cards are unsecured loans, I’ll be remiss if I don’t talk about delinquency rates of the Apple Card. In Q1 2022, when Goldman Sachs first reported past due loan amount, the 30+ day delinquency rate of the Apple Card was 3.5%. As the issuer tightened its credit policy, coupled with loan deferral programs as well as three rounds of stimulus checks, the delinquency rate dropped to as low as 1.63% before rising back up to 1.9% in Q4 2021. Compared to the 30+ day delinquency rate of Bank of America or Chase, Apple Card’s rate was about 70 or 100 basis points higher as of Q4 2021. While the risk exposure is not as good as it can or should be for GS, remember that the bank has relatively little experience in the credit card industry that has been around for 70-80 years.

Then, the GM portfolio came. The 30+ day delinquency rate of Goldman Sachs’ credit card business shot up to 2.3% in Q1, 2.73% in Q2 and 3.08% in Q3 2022. Keep in mind that this portfolio was previously managed by Capital One. Capital One is more willing to book consumers with FICO less than 670 than its peers. As a consequence, Capital One credit card books tend to have higher delinquency rates. Case in point, the 30+ day delinquency rate of its domestic card was 2.97% as of September 2022. While I don’t doubt that the introduction of GM increased Goldman Sachs’ risk exposure, the tough environment in 2022 might have also caused more Apple Card customers to miss payments.

As a result, I believe that the Apple Card portfolio has higher delinquency rates that what some other issuers reported, and the acquisition of a portfolio from Capital One apparently didn’t help.

New changes at Goldman Sachs

On 1/12/2023, Goldman Sachs announced that they made changes to their business segments and how they would report results to investors. Specifically, the bank will combine Consumer Banking, which includes its credit card division, and Transaction Banking to form what they call Platform Solutions. In the same filing to the SEC, Goldman Sachs disclosed pre-tax earnings/losses of the new segments in the last three years. The Platform Solutions segment lost almost $800 million in 2020, a tad over a billion in $2021 and over $1.2 billion in the first 9 months of 2022. Some news outlets and folks on Twitter were quick to attribute these losses to the Apple Card. So let’s take a look

Source: Goldman Sachs

While we can safely distribute much of the provision to the Apple Card, given the size of the portfolio, Operating Expenses made up most of the losses. This fact and the lack of detailed disclosures make it impossible to know whether the Apple Card really drove such expenses. Remember that Platform Solutions now includes the bank’s digital platform Marcus, Green Sky, the GM portfolio and Transaction Banking. Any of these can have an outsized impact on expenses, especially when the bank invested in infrastructure for future growth. Working at a bank that has retail banking and credit card products, I can tell you that normal consumers don’t know how complex and intensive it is to run and sell these products. Here are a few teams I remember on top of my mind:

  • Finance to control the purse
  • Compliance to make sure everything is legal
  • Credit Risk to help set the underwriting policy
  • Operations to make sure everything runs smoothly (and Operations is an umbrella term for several teams like Marketing Engineering, Credit Ops, Rewards, Embossing, Customer Care)
  • Customer Management to handle campaigns post-acquisition
  • Client Management to take care of projects and communication with our partners
  • Acquisition team to run campaigns to book customers
  • Data Analytics to help the business leverage data to make decisions
  • IT
  • Cybersecurity

It’s a giant endeavor to run a Consumer Banking arm. So it’s not really surprising to me that Goldman Sachs is racking up losses at the moment. What I am not convinced of is that the Apple Card is highly unprofitable. Because we don’t have the data to back that up. At least, not yet.

What goes into Operating Expenses
What goes into Operating Expenses. Source: Goldman Sachs

Weekly reading – 14th January 2023

What I wrote last week

Nike & Netflix partner

Business

The British are coming: Fleet Street’s ‘digital landgrab’ on US news sector. A fascinating piece on UK news outlets finding opportunity in the US. It’s all about finding more eyeballs and the huge ads market that the US has to offer. According to the article, UK newspapers either choose to be tabloidy or position themselves as a place where readers can get news neutrally. It’ll be interesting to watch the competition between the likes of TMZ and the tabloids from the UK pan out. In terms of being neutral news outlets, I have serious doubts over how one can stay neutral for a long time. Then, what’s the differentiation? What can British newspapers have to compete with the American incumbents?

The rise and fall of 15-minute delivery startups, an oral history. These 15-minute delivery startups never had a chance to succeed in my opinion. The unit economics is unfeasible. The cost of completing last-mile delivery is always high. So is the cost of subsidizing user activities or delivery drivers in the beginning. Throw competition, an unfavorable environment and low level of stickiness in the mix and you have a perfect recipe for a business that is destined to fail.

David Zaslav’s Rocky Ride as Hollywood’s Newest Czar. As CEO of a media giant like Warner Bros Discovery, David Zaslav is always going to get negative pieces like this one. And let’s face it: he may very well fail to overcome the current challenges. Investors put a premium on profitability AND growth. One is no longer enough. But to achieve both requires a lot of time, investments and execution; a luxury that the CEO doesn’t have because of the mountain of debt on the books. The combined entity is so big and complex that even to get two different organizations and cultures to gel is a monumental task. The changes that Zaslav made may not come to fruition, but being decisive is probably the only way any executive can succeed in this case.

OK, 2022 was a disaster for Tesla. What next?Now, some of you may have views about the sustainability of Tesla’s regulatory export credits, the value of their energy business, the prospects for an insurance business, the likelihood of reaching Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomous driving technology (and before anyone else does), or even the Teslabot. Some of these may be worth something, or all of them may be worth nothing. This certainly adds a wild card to the valuation of Tesla. But the main driver will probably remain the automotive business.”

How much Netflix can the world absorb? A long profile on Bela Bajaria, Netflix’s Global Head of Television. I wonder if this piece is supposed to support the executive in a time when the “be everything at everywhere” strategy at Netflix seems to run into trouble.

Other stuff I find interesting

Robberies at bank branches and ATMs in Denmark in 2022 dropped to zero due to the move to a cashless society.

India is learning to love electric vehicles — but they’re not cars. A quick look at EV vehicles in India. Similar to the US, India needs to overhaul the infrastructure, subsidizes EV purchases and needs to find a way to lower the manufacturing costs. The difference between the two countries? US favors electric cards while India is all about electric two-wheelers

Here’s how many EV chargers the US has – and how many it needs. The US currently has about 163,000 charging ports. To meet the demand of EV vehicles expected to be on the road by 2030, there must be A LOT more charging ports installed across the country.

Stats

Cash made up 59% of POS transactions and 42% of POS volume in EU in 2022

New York City welcomed more than 56 million visitors in 2022

The number of Mastodon active users dropped to 1.8 million in early January 2023, down from 2.5 million in early December 2022

Black founders raised just 1% of all VC funds in 2022

Dutch people are the most physically active in the world. They spend on average almost 13 hours a week exercising

Consumers spent $167 billion on mobile apps in 2022

Developers earned $60 billion from the App Store in 2022. Apple Fitness+ now has more than 3,500 workout and meditation sessions

Nike & Netflix Partner To Bring You “Netflix & Sweat”

A few weeks ago, Nike and Netflix announced a new partnership that saw the streamer bring onboard several Nike Training Club classes. Per Techcrunch:

The streaming service will release a total of 30 hours of exercise sessions in two separate batches. The programs, which include workouts for all fitness levels, will be available in multiple languages on all Netflix plans.

The first batch of fitness classes will launch on December 30, with the second batch releasing in 2023. A total of 45 episodes will be part of the first batch, which will include the following classes: Kickstart Fitness with the Basics, Two Weeks to a Stronger Core, Fall in Love with Vinyasa Yoga, HIIT & Strength with Tara, and Feel-Good Fitness. Once the classes are released, Netflix users will be able to search “Nike” to access them

Leverage what already exists

There are several things already in play that support the launch of this new fitness program. First, as a global household name, Netflix doesn’t need to spend a lot of money to advertise the brand and bring the new service to consumers. Everybody knows the iconic black & red logo. Second, with the existing infrastructure that enables streaming from millions of users, Netflix has more than enough experience and capacity to add the new fitness content to the mix. Their engineers will just need to append a few lines of code to their code base. Third, even though the concept of online fitness classes is not new, the pandemic, Peloton and Apple Fitness+ made it popular again. More and more people are receptive to the idea of working out at home and not having to drive to a gym, especially in unfriendly weather. Netflix’s fitness content fits right into that trend. Last but not least, to have a nice viewing experience at home, many Netflix subscribers invest in a great TV. Hence, all Netflix subscribers need to work out at home are motivation, some space and probably a mat.

A clever way to retain subscribers?

Streamers constantly need new content. Subscribers will churn if they don’t see new shows or movies that they like. To Netflix, it’s even more important to keep churn low than to other streamers. The likes of Warner Bros Discovery or Disney bring their movies to theater and generate millions, if not dozens of millions, of dollars in revenue before putting those IPs online. Despite launching ads, Netflix gets most of their revenue from subscription fees. As a result, they continuously crave for new content to keep subscribers staying and Netflix executives obviously hope that fitness classes are an inexpensive way to grow the library.

While the logic behind this collaboration between the two great brands is sound, I remain doubtful of the impact on Netflix’s churn and financials. Non-subscribers are unlikely to become members just for the fitness content. To those that already subscribe to the streamer, Nike Training Classes will not sway them one way or another. There are certainly a few on the fence that may stick around because they find more utility from Netflix, but that group should constitute only a small percentage of their subscriber base.

A weak proposition – A disconnect with the brand positioning

What makes Apple Fitness+ a success is that it fits right into Apple’s overarching brand positioning. Apple believes in leaving the world a better place than they found it. They do so by using hardware and software to make consumers’ personal lives better. And they happen to make a great fitness program paired with iPhone and Apple Watch. You see, it’s a compelling story that people can relate to.

It’s not the same with Netflix. When folks think of Netflix, they think of entertainment and binge-watching. Netflix and Chill is a real cultural thing. Fitness just doesn’t gel with that image. There is no obvious connection between the two concepts. And don’t take my word for it. Here is what Netflix said in the announcement:

It’s not always easy to motivate yourself to exercise, but the option to feel the burn and then directly transition into one of your favorite shows does have a certain appeal

The proposition is weak and unconvincing. Netflix isn’t selling the why. They are selling a feature and consumers are not appealed by features. Be honest, when you read that line from Netflix’s marketing team, are you inspired? The small number of classes indicates this is primarily a test from Netflix to gauge consumer interest. But even if the test yields positive results, the company needs to rethink its brand positioning. What is the why or the identity behind all the entertainment, games, fitness and other content? That question is not easy to answer and right now, it’s not answered.

Weekly reading – 7th January 2023

What I wrote last week

Book Review: A.P. Giannini: The Man With The Midas Touch

Legacy Systems Can Cost Businesses Dearly

Business

How digital helps businesses serve ice cream and smiles 24/7. “Smart freezer cabinets are currently being piloted. These can capture products that are out of stock in the cabinet and send a push message to the store that suggests a quantity that can be ordered and sent automatically, drastically reducing the chance of their running out of stock. The pilot saw 1,200 trade customers offered the opportunity to make orders through a virtual sales rep via WhatsApp at any time of the day. Once the order was placed, a team at the distribution hub got it prepared in an average of 60 minutes. It was then delivered in backpacks with special cooling zones in less than four hours – a system that guaranteed product stability.”

‘They’ve gone too far’: How Spotify dug a giant hole — and how it can dig itself out. The piece pains a pessimistic outlook on Spotify’s future and it does have some valid points. The company generates almost $10 billion in annual revenue, but it hasn’t turned profitable so far. The competition is getting fiercer and fiercer every year. Spotify may have some bargaining power as a major industry player, but the label companies still have a lot of sway. It makes sense in theory to create a library of podcast content and sell podcast ads. But it’s the execution that counts and right now, some analysts and investors are not buying Spotify’s ability to execute. If they couldn’t turn a profit when the tide was high, how would they do so when the tide is retreating out?

($) Facebook Wanted Out of Politics. It Was Messier Than Anyone Expected. Facebook did try to limit the virality of some content, even more than anybody thought. I never thought that the company put that much effort into suppressing toxic yet viral content. However, Facebook was a little too late. The damage was already done. They never got rid of the image of being politically toxic. Their work on the newsfeed still didn’t address what happened within Facebook Groups. More importantly, any attempt to moderate content contradicts Facebook’s business model which hinges on engagement and ads revenue. “Views of civic content in newsfeed fell by nearly a third, internal data showed. With the company no longer amplifying posts it predicted were most likely to draw lots of replies, comments on civic posts dropped by two-thirds. Anger reactions fell by more than half on civic content, and nearly a quarter platform-wide. Bullying, inaccurate information and graphic violence fell, too.”

Apple Fitness+ unveils new offerings for the new year. My wife and I pay $84 a year for access to Apple Fitness+ and I can tell you that it’s one of the best investments we make. We exercise almost every day and there is a variety of workouts that keep us interested. With Kickboxing and a new meditation theme, consumers will have more workout options and Fitness+ content library keeps growing. I can’t think of another company that has a fitness IP this size and a popular fitness gadget like Apple Watch. This, of course, doesn’t happen overnight. It takes patience and vision. Software drives hardware sales and hardware is the tool that makes consumer lives better.

Other stuff I found interesting

Micromobility in Limbo: Takeaways from Paris and LA. Scooters are good and should be used for short trips. Cities that want to reduce car traffic must revamp their public transportation systems to accommodate longer trips. Any scooter startup that banks on and advertises the prospect of their services replacing cars deserves a rude awakening and no support from city governments.

(S) Tourism and Manufacturing Fight for the Future of Power in Europe. I get that renewables play an important role in our fight against climate change. It’s even more important for Europe to reduce its reliance on energy from Russia after it invaded Ukraine. But I do think that wind turbines don’t need to be built around historical landmarks or areas that source most of their revenue from tourism. And it is particularly baffling when local officials admit that turbines could be built in areas far away from the lands where there is protest.

How a vanished Ice Age lake shaped the past and present of Missoula, Montana. It is mind-blowing how much the climate changed over the last hundreds of years and how much our life today was shaped by it.

Meet the most powerful Uber driver in India. Salauddin has a computer science degree, drove for Uber and nowadays spends his time as a union leader for gig workers in India. What an interesting arc!

How New Lines Magazine built a home for long-form international reporting. I hadn’t heard about this magazine before, but now I have and the first couple of long articles that I read did not disappoint

Stats

Total holiday spend grew nearly 7% in 2022

150 million users are using Google TV and Android TV

Amazon Prime Video averaged 9.6 million viewers for its first season as exclusive rights holder to the NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” package.

Online holiday shopping topped $211 billion between 11/1/2022 and 12/31/2022

Source: CDC

Legacy systems can cost businesses dearly. Southwest’s screw-up is just the latest example

Southwest, the IRS and Royal Bank of Scotland, what do they have in common? Well, they all serve as reminders to companies that failure to modernize internal systems can cost them dearly. Here is how:

Southwest

As 2022 was inching to a close, the airline that used to be known for customer services had the biggest meltdown in the industry’s recent history. Southwest cancelled more than 15,000 flights in the past few days, making up 80%, 86% and 94% of the country’s total cancelled flights on 27th, 28th and 29th of December respectively. This catastrophe left hundreds of passengers stranded, not knowing where to go or where to pick up their luggage. All of this could have been avoided, if it were not for Southwest’s inexplicable reliance on outdated tools and baffling refusal to modernize them.

Southwest uses an in-house system called Sky Solver to assign crews. Southwest flight attendants and pilots have been calling for an overhaul of this system for years to accommodate the growing complexity of the airline’s operations. Yet, the calls fell to deaf ears. Brutal winter storms and heightened demand unfortunately exposed Sky Solver’s shortcomings to the fullest. Phone lines jammed up. Crew members didn’t know which planes they should go to. Pilots booked their own hotels while flight attendants spent the nights at crew lounges. The airline couldn’t locate even their own employees. Although planes were ready to take off, Southwest had no choice but to cancel flights because there were no crew members to operate those planes.

By no means is this an isolated incident. In 2021, cancelled flights over 4 days in Q3 cost Southwest $75 million. Because what happened this week is bigger in scale, it is going to cost Southwest a lot more than what they paid out last year. Moreover, it is part of a trend that has been coming. In the last 10 years, Southwest consistently had more cancellations than its peers as its cancellation rate jumped from 0.8% in 2013 to 2.4% in 2022. As cancelled flights piled up, only 7 out of 10 Southwest flights have arrived on time.

The story of Herb Kelleher heroically fighting the status quo at the time to found Southwest is widely cited and studied in business schools. The airline prides itself in customer services. Yet, recent management teams have prioritized familiarity and bottom lines over making tough yet necessary investments. And now, they are paying the price. Not just in terms of the financial impacts, but also regulatory scrutiny and damaged trust from passengers.

Southwest's cancellations
Source: CNN

Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

As the agency that handles taxes of millions of Americans every year, you’d think that the IRS uses state-of-the-art systems. The reality is anything but. The IRS is the poster boy of how failing to modernize systems can cause significant damages:

  • In 1985, computer issues at the IRS delayed 1.5 million individual returns. Those who filed on time were eligible for interest on delayed payments, but that also meant millions of dollars in additional expense to the government
  • In 2007, the IRS handed out $318 million in fraudulent refunds
  • In 2018, a computer glitch on the deadline day caused widespread confusion and prevented more than 5 million Americans from filing tax returns electronically
  • The government literally spent tens of thousands of dollars over the years, trying to modernize the tools that the IRS used, with nothing to show for it
Source: Bloomberg Tax

The IRS built a system called Individual Master File (IMF) in the 1960s that holds tax payer data. More than 60 years later, the same software is still what processes our tax returns. As arguably the oldest system used in the US government, IMF runs on a legacy code that few people know. As the number of developers that can handle such an archaic code dwindles every year, the software is increasingly expensive to maintain. For good measure, the IRS has to tweak the legacy code every year to reflect changes imposed by Congress, adding complexity in the process. There has been no lack of effort to modernize IMF over the years. The latest attempt is called Customer Account Data Engine 2 or CADE 2. Announced in 2013, the project has suffered multiple setbacks and is now slated to be completed by 2030. But don’t be surprised if there are further postponements.

IMF is just the core system and one of the hundreds that the agency has developed over the years to meet its needs. Unfortunately, these systems don’t necessarily talk to one another. Per National Taxpayer Advocate:

Example: When a custodial parent wishes to amend her 2019 tax return to allow the non-custodial parent to claim a child as a dependent and to claim various credits, she can file an amended return electronically, but must mail the Form 8332, Release/Revocation of Release of Claim to Exemption for Child by Custodial Parent, along with Form 1040-X, Amended U.S. Individual Income Tax Return. The return-processing arm of the IRS does not have the capability to accept the Form 8332 electronically, so it must scan and upload the data from a paper form received. The delay resulting from mailing and processing of a paper Form 8332 could cause complications for the taxpayer or the non-custodial parent if the audit arm of the IRS acts on the amended return based on outdated return information of either parent.

To be fair, the IRS’s budget has decreased over the years while their job is not any simpler. Regardless, it’s very hard to fathom that one of the richest countries on Earth, if not the richest, and the birthplace of many tech companies cannot solve this issue. Everybody’s life will be dramatically improved if the IRS can overhaul its aging systems and make filing taxes easier. It seems far-fetched, but in the spirit of a new year, let’s just wish that would happen soon.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)

Despite their pivotal roles in our societies, banks are notorious for tardiness in modernizing legacy internal systems. Such a failure to invest in IT infrastructure properly can result in serious business and financial consequences; one example of which is Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).

In June 2012, a computer glitch wrecked RBS operations and exposed its systems’ weaknesses. About 12 million consumers had their accounts frozen and couldn’t complete transactions or withdraw cash from ATMs. Some said they couldn’t even see their account details. The meltdown cost the bank 56 million pounds in fine and another 175 million to compensate affected customers. It also put a regulatory spotlight on the bank and damaged the trust among customers.

At the time, RBS’ mainframes were using codes that dated back in the 1970s. The codes were so complicated that even insiders at RBS couldn’t understand. To make matters worse, the bank dismissed experienced employees that had the technical abilities to maintain the system and outsourced those jobs to low-paying staff in India. All in the name of cost savings. Guess what? The disaster in 2012 stemmed from one of those outsourced technicians making a major error on the job. Whether outsourcing was the root cause of RBS outages remains unclear, but perhaps given what was covered after the incident, an experienced operative would have helped avoid it.

Book Review: A.P. Giannini: The Man With The Midas Touch

My first completed book in 2023. “A.P. Giannini: The Man With The Midas Touch” offers a quick look into the life of A.P. Giannini, the legendary immigrant founder of Bank of America and an all-time great businessman. His work ethic, entrepreneurship and unyielding focus on customers are a great example of founders and companies alike. Below are some of my takeaways:

Short bio

Amadeo Pietro Giannini or A.P. Giannini was born in San Jose in 1870 to Italian immigrants. His father Luigi migrated from Italy to the US, wishing, as many, to find gold and change his life. He returned to Italy to marry Virginia DeMartini, whose brothers worked alongside Luigi in gold mines, and brought her over to the US. The Gianninis bought a farmland in California and started to grow vegetables and fruits for sale. Then, a life-altering tragedy struck. Luigi was killed by an employee over a pay dispute, leaving a 22-year-old Virginia as the lone caretaker of two boys while being pregnant of a third. Virginia married Lorenzo Scatena and relocated to San Francisco. Here, Lorenzo quit his job and launched his own product company named L. Scatena & Company, which would give young A.P. the first opportunity into the business world.

Business Acumen

A.P had an amazing business acumen, strong customer orientation and a nose for opportunity. Even at a young age of 16, he already prioritized strong relationships with farmers over short-term sales. He remembered their names individually, asked questions about their business, delivered timely payments in cash and helped the farmers out if they needed it. During the summer of 1887, believing that there would be a supply crunch for pears, A.P. made arrangements with farmers to buy their crops before everybody else. When the price of pears shot up due to supply shortage, L. Scatena & Company benefited handsomely from A.P’s hunch. A.P became so valuable to his step father’s company that he became a partner at the age of 19.

He promised farmers payment in cash and on time. Pop honored those promises, and the farmers learned that they could expect honesty and integrity from L. Scatena & Company. They also could expect accuracy and attentive customer service. A. P. always remembered the farmers’ names. In fact, he remembered the names of their wives and children. He also remembered dates and prices and quantities. This impressive memory won the confidence of potential customers and convinced many of them to do business with Pop’s firm.

After disagreements with other Board of Directors members at a bank, A.P quit, decided to launch a bank of his own and called it Bank of Italy. A.P wanted his bank to cater to poor immigrants, instead of just the rich, because he believed that if Bank of Italy helped them in difficult times, the good will would make them customers for life. Long-term wins over short-term gains, indeed. One of his first hires was a cashier named Armando Pedrini. Armando learned his cashier craft in Italy, South America and the US, spoke multiple languages and more importantly, treated poor immigrants as he would the people in suits.

Two years after A.P opened his bank, a devastating earthquake hit San Francisco and leveled the city. Knowing that his customers needed money for food, home and their future, he made his bank and money available for loans while other banks stayed closed. A.P. set up a temporary desk at the site of fire near the waterfront. He wanted the people to see him, his gold and the Bank of Italy sign when they came for food and supplies. Word of mouth traveled far and fast as people lined up to get loans from A.P’s bank.

A.P took his wife on vacation to New York. The trip was the first vacation the couple had, but it was also an opportunity for A.P. to learn about the banking world in New York. What he learned was alarming. Talking to people in the industry, A.P. learned that banks in New York had dangerously low levels of gold and would not have enough for mass withdrawals. Customer fear is often contagious. If customers on the East Coast fear that banks don’t have their gold ready to be withdrawn, such anxiety will soon spread to the West Coast. A.P. cut short his trip and promptly worked to boost his own gold reserves. His foresight paid off. In 1907, prices on the New York Stock Exchange dropped, causing worried consumers to lean on gold and try to withdraw it from their banks. Riot broke out when banks did not have enough gold to meet customer demand. Not Bank of Italy, though. A.P. spread the word that his bank had enough gold in hand and even publicly displayed it to assuage customers. Bank of Italy came out of the crisis intact and gained trust from customers.

The book is littered with other stories and anecdotes on A.P’s knack for business. Here are a few:

On November 18, 1909, A. P. opened the doors to his first bank outside of San Francisco. He gained the good will of local customers by rehiring the tellers from Commercial and Savings instead of bringing in outsiders. He appointed local business, community, and ethnic leaders to an advisory board to help guide the bank and bring in new customers. He charged lower interest rates than his competitors. He kept the bank open in the evenings and on Saturdays so it would be convenient for working people to use.

A. P. began by focusing on the banking needs of immigrants as he had done in San Francisco. He wanted working-class people to feel comfortable in his bank. Most banks had marble pillars and fancy ceilings to impress rich customers and scare off any poor ones. Tellers hid behind barred windows to prevent someone from reaching in and stealing the money, and the managers worked in private, locked offices. At Bank of Italy, employees worked in the open where it was easy for customers to see and approach them. The decoration and furnishings were designed to blend in with the neighborhood. Especially in poorer communities, A. P. believed a bank should be simple, sturdy, and orderly.

As usual, Bank of Italy conducted business outside the constraints of conventional wisdom. Times were changing, and A. P. knew it. He believed that women who could vote also would demand greater choice and independence in managing their own money. He saw a great untapped base of customers in this half of the population, and he wanted Bank of Italy to be the first to welcome them at the only bank in the nation run entirely by and for women.

A. P. envisioned attracting women customers on an entirely different scale. With his usual dramatic flair, he selected a prominent and symbolic place to begin. He dedicated an entire upper floor of the bank’s new headquarters in downtown San Francisco as a Women’s Bank. Its sole purpose was to promote the economic independence of women. A. P. set out to create an inviting atmosphere for the customers he wanted. The bank was attractively decorated and filled with flowers. More important, he made sure that the women customers in front of the counter were welcomed by women employees behind it. A. P. appointed a woman to manage the bank.

A. P. had no private office. He had no personal secretary and answered his own phone. He sat at a desk on the open floor, ready to meet with any customer who wanted to see him. With 200,000 depositors, A. P. had built the largest bank west of Chicago, but he did not want his success to alienate the fishermen and dock workers who were his long-time clients.

At a time when most bankers were desperately calling in loans, A. P. was determined to be patient. Many borrowers, both individuals and businesses, were slow to repay their loans during the Great Depression because they did not have the cash. A. P. chose to wait for eventual repayment rather than force borrowers into possible bankruptcy. He believed the economy would improve sooner if people were not forced into desperate actions. He knew, also, that they would feel loyalty to a bank that trusted them. As always, he cultivated long-term customers rather than short-term profits.

For instance, A. P. recognized the great potential of the automobile industry. Automobiles had existed since the 1906 earthquake, when the few available cars had been seized by troops to provide emergency services. After World War II, many people moved to the suburbs where cars were essential for transportation. As cars became more affordable, more people wanted to buy them. A. P. was a pioneer in helping people to pay for expensive purchases. Bank of America offered installment plans that allowed customers to buy cars and other goods—stoves, refrigerators, washing machines, vacuum cleaners—by paying a little each month over time. With low rates and efficient service, the bank attracted many customers. In just a few years, only General Motors would finance more car loans than A. P.’s bank.

As founder of the world’s largest bank, A. P. became one of the most powerful people in the world. However, he had no interest in becoming one of the richest. He studiously avoided personal wealth. “I don’t want to be rich,” he said. “No man actually owns a fortune; it owns him.” A. P. believed that “a lot of people working together can create a lot of wealth for a lot of people. But one man who works selfishly for his own wealth at the expense of others creates nothing worth having. He generates poverty. There’s poverty in his mind, in his heart, and in time it will show up in his pocket.”

Personal tragedy

Having legendary successes in his professional life, A.P. unfortunately endured overwhelming personal losses. As a young child, he saw his own father shot to death. As a man, only three of his eight children lived to adulthood. Both his two surviving sons, Virgil and Mario, had chronic health conditions and died at the age of 38 and 57 respectively. A.P. outlived his wife and all but two of his own children. His daughter Claire died childless, marking the end of the Giannini family.

After reading about A.P.’s success as a founder, many may tempt to envy him. However, would you still want his professional success, knowing what he suffered personally? Granted, in the case of A.P., his personal tragedies didn’t seem to be linked with professional conquers. But that’s not how it works. If you envy, envy the whole deal. That’s probably one of the more effective ways that I know can help quell the thirst of envy.

Weekly reading – 31st December 2022

This is the last post of 2022. If you come across this little blog of mine or have been following, thanks and I wish you and your loved ones a great holiday.

What I wrote last week

My 2022

Business

Direct-to-clinician—How product-led growth is changing healthcare and life sciences. A really nice write-up on how the Direct-to-Clinician model is changing the healthcare landscape and powering startups that specialize in the field

The ABCs of health tech: key metrics to know and grow your business. These metrics and formulas are also used in other industries, not just healthcare. Hence, it’s helpful to have a list like this

Podcasting could be in for a rocky 2023. An interesting data point in the article: an ad agency executive claimed that only 5% of its client base submitted an advertising budget for 2023. The figure does seem unusually low, but given the uncertainty of the economy, I get where they are coming from. With that being said, I think this will be positive news to incumbent ads platforms like Google, Facebook or Amazon, just to name a few. They provide a sense of security that brands will get something for their bucks. Podcasting ads have potential, but at the moment, I don’t think they are there yet.

Are discount grocers outpacing traditional operators? I am a frequent shopper at Aldi in Omaha. I can attest that there have been more shoppers lately than in the past. The appeal of discount grocers is very simple: fewer items yet prices are hard to beat. In the time of inflation when everything is still more expensive, shoppers look for bargains. That’s exactly what these discount brands offer. They also benefit from a growing acceptance of private labels from shoppers. Private labels used to be stigmatized with low quality. That’s no longer the case. Even high-income households shop private labels nowadays which make up the majority of hard discounters’ inventory. Will these discount brands replace big box retailers? I don’t think so. But the likes of Walmart or Target will have to sell to shoppers in a different way and face pressures on margin.

The fintech reckoning is upon us. Here’s what to expect next year. Despite all the hype, rarely do I see a neobank or a fintech startup with meaningful market share, profitability and a sustainable growth trajectory. In the meantime, incumbent banks keep generating more profits and invest in their own capabilities to ensure feature parity with smaller competitors. Interest rates will persist at the current level for a few more months. Funding is more expensive to come by. The market will likely remain pessimistic next year. Investors put a premium on profitability, not growth. I expect that a lot of fintech startups will be acquired in the near future, mainly for talents and Intellectual Property. Their revenue and market share will be too small to mean anything.

($) How Southwest Airlines Melted Down. “Airline executives and labor leaders point to inadequate technology systems, in particular SkySolver, as one reason why a brutal winter storm turned into a debacle. SkySolver was overwhelmed by the scale of the task of sorting out which pilots and flight attendants could work which flights, Southwest executives said. Crew schedulers instead had to comb through records by hand. Upgrading Southwest’s technology has been a yearslong endeavor. Before it grew from a small player to a national and then international airline, Southwest didn’t need the same kinds of commercial platforms that rivals used, and developed many of its own systems instead. As Southwest grew and took on more complicated operations, such as flying outside the U.S., that has changed. SkySolver, an off-the-shelf piece of software that Southwest has customized and updated, was nearing the end of its life, the airline said.” The airline’s pilots and flight attendants have said outdated technology is part of the reason Southwest has struggled to rebound after upsets. Last year, a severe storm and an air-traffic control slowdown in Florida set off a chain reaction that rippled through Southwest’s network for several days. The airline canceled flights in a disruption that ended up costing $75 million.” There is another Reddit thread on the same issue. In the digital world we live in, companies live and die by IT infrastructure. Regarding Southwest, it’s remarkable that they let it come to this point even though the antiquated systems have been called out for a while.

Other stuff I find interesting

How cellphones transformed life at a women’s prison in Argentina. Most of our daily activities are online; which makes the lack of cellphones crippling to inmates. Although they are in prison for a reason, it doesn’t mean that they don’t deserve the right to access life essentials like we all do. I am happy for those inmates to have a little life brought back to them

Online shopping in the middle of the ocean. A practical look into how difficult online shipping is in remote areas such as Haiti or French Polynesia and how local companies are filling the gap left by giants like Amazon

($) Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers. What the article describes is concerning. Putin has unquestioned power in Russia, yet he is surrounded by hard liners that don’t have the courage to give him true facts and intelligence. Worse, some factions in the Russian government are willing to tap into Putin’s desire to restore Russia to what it once was, in order to advance their career regardless of consequences. The war in Ukraine is an example. And from what goes on in the article, it may not be the last example.

Stats

Salesforce predicts that holiday shopping returns this year will increase by 57% year over year

Gartner forecasts that global IT spending will reach $4.7 trillion in 2023

3 out of 4 developers surveyed by StackOverflow use Visual Studio as the preferred Integrated Development Environment

Vietnam GDP grows 8.02% in 2022; fastest expansion in 25 years

My 2022

Here is what happened to me in 2022

Books

I read 16 books in 2022 and reviewed some of them:

Blog

I published 112 entries this year, the lowest since 2019, and gained about 50 more followers, despite virtually no advertising. Next year, I’ll resolve to write more.

Fitness

In terms of fitness, I’ll give myself an F grade in 2022. Here are some data points according to my Fitness and Health app:

  • I set my daily goals of 11 stand hours, 600 calorie move goal and 50 mins of exercise for 2022. I closed all three rings only one every two days so far this year
  • 681 active calorie on average
  • 41 minutes of exercise
  • 14 hours of standing
  • 6,032 steps every day
  • 1,000 Apple Fitness+ workouts, including 250+ Yoga and 100+ HIIT

Another F grade in 12 months is NOT an option.

Diet

I spent half a year on a Mediterranean diet and the other half consuming more carbs than I should. Plus, I am a snack lover. My friends and wife never waste a chance to remind me that I snack too much. The goal next year is to limit the amount of carbs & to snack more healthily.

Immigration

I went back to Vietnam for my wedding. As a result, I had to get an H1B visa from the Consulate. Back to the US, I had to extend my H1B status while continuing my Permanent Residence process.

My wife got a tourist visa to visit my back in February. Then, she had to get an H4 visa to relocate to the US. As my spouse, she is also participating in the PR process while trying to secure an H4-based work permit.

All of those paperworks are time-consuming, expensive and frustrating. But we know we are lucky enough to even have an opportunity. I just hope that it will be over next year and we can share our experience with whoever needs it.

Self-improvement

Mentoring

I love mentoring people at work. Apart from the good feeling of know that I helped others, I benefit from being a mentor myself in multiple ways. First of all, I must make sure I don’t embarrass myself and I don’t give bad advice. As a result, I am motivated to validate what I know and deepen my knowledge at work even further. Second, I improve as a communicator as well. No matter how technically good you are, none of that matters if you can’t communicate. It’s a challenge to break down complex and technical issues in layman’s terms. I still have a long way to go, but I am better at it than I was in 2021. Last but not least, I learn what I am terrible at. Patience and occasionally control of my emotions. One of my interns candidly told me that he knew I was demanding and I didn’t do it on purpose, but I was harsh to him a couple of times. I took that feedback to heart and am working on it.

I have worked with 4 interns and a colleague this year. There are successes, but there are also failures. Personally, I learned a great deal from mentoring folks and am thankful for that.

“Just start”

High intensity interval training (HIIT) is a staple of my exercise routine. HIIT helps burn a lot of calorie in a short amount of time. Very useful to people that want to stay healthy yet are short on time. At the end of each HIIT session, I am satisfied and proud of myself after enduring physical challenge for about 10-30 mins. But it’s not mentally easy to press the “Start” button. No matter how much I practice HIIT, I still feel deterred and intimidated when I think of tired quads and short breaths half way through a session. Overcoming that fear personally is more difficult than the physical strain I put on my body. But once I get going, my body responds to the challenge and adapts accordingly. The key is to just get started and see how it goes.

I have struggled to blog as much this year as I did in the past. Much as I like to use work and taking care of my family as excuses, the main reason is that I was lazy. I am not a native speaker nor am I a great writer. But I often find it easier to complete a blog entry when I sit down and just get cracking. There will often be silly words, awkward sentences and raw ideas at first before major editing, but once words flow, it gets much easier to continue and finish. All I need to do is to sit down and type.

Gratitude

My wife and I have been in the process of getting permanent residence in the US for almost two years. There has been a lot of paperwork and even a greater deal of frustration. You’d think that someone with two STEM Master’s degrees that is a law-abiding citizen with not so much of a parking ticket should be rewarded with a more permanent status. But life is anything but fair. On a few occasions, I regretted the decision to move to the US. Had I gone to Canada to study and work, I would have got PR by now. Thankfully, talking to my Indian coworkers, I was reminded that they would have to wait for years to get a Green Card. In fact, a teammate of mine only received her status a few months ago and she applied for it back in 2012. Who am I to complain?

Last week saw some of the coldest days I have ever had in Omaha since I came here in 2016. The temperature dropped to -25 Celsius degrees and wind chills were as low as -39. As tough as it was for me, such a harsh condition was even tougher for my wife who is so used to the hot climate in Vietnam and just has her first ever winter this year. But on more than one occasion, we just looked at each other and were thankful that we got a roof on our head, hot soup to warm ourselves and warm clothes to wear. Not so many people even have that luxury.

Weekly reading – 24th December 2022

Business

Fortnite Video Game Maker Epic Games to Pay More Than Half a Billion Dollars over FTC Allegations of Privacy Violations and Unwanted Charges. This announcement is devastating to Epic Games. Two record-breaking settlements in the history of the FTC that amount to more than half a billion dollars unquestionably hurts. Not only financially but also legally and reputationally. Epic Games has been involved in legal battles against Apple, claiming to fight for developers. Instead, they were caught red-handed. This case shows that Apple has a point in centralizing payments in order to protect consumers, especially minors. I am not saying Apple is perfect. Far from it. But in this case, Epic Games is the worst company on the market that brings an antitrust lawsuit against Apple. Apple lawyers cannot have a better start of the week.

($) Supply Chains Upended by Covid Are Back to Normal. “Goods are moving around the world again and reaching companies and consumers, despite some production snarls and Covid outbreaks inside China. Gone are the weekslong backlogs of cargo ships at large ports. Ocean shipping rates have plunged below prepandemic levels. “It’s obvious that freight rates peaked and began to normalize, driven by falling demand and an easing supply-chain congestion,” said Soren Skou, chief executive of Maersk. In November, the shipping company lowered its 2023 forecast for container demand—a proxy for global trade. It now expects a decline from 2% to 4%, from a maximum decline of 1% previously.

How Mastodon is scaling amid the Twitter exodus. It is fascinating that Mastodon has 2.5 million monthly active users yet is maintained as a non-profit organization by one person only

The Blackstone of Innovation. A quick overview of the Venture Capital business. I’d recommend the Venture Deals book if you were interested in the VC world and key terms that are often mentioned on the news.

Why YouTube spent the money on NFL Sunday Ticket. YouTube wants content creators to spend more time creating content for Shorts. The more content, the more eyeballs and hence the more advertising revenue. Platforms are fighting one another fiercely to keep creators and generate quality content. Even though this deal is not cheap, it does seem to serve YouTube in more than just one way

Invisible asymptotes. At a certain point, every company will have a ceiling that caps its growth curve if there is no change in strategy. Such a ceiling is called invisible asymptote. Eugene Wei wrote a great post on invisible asymptotes of some of the biggest tech names out there.

A fascinating Twitter thread on perfume ads

Other stuff I find interesting

#WorldCup on Twitter: The G.O.A.T.

($) Many Hospitals Get Big Drug Discounts. That Doesn’t Mean Markdowns for Patients.Under the program, hospitals buy drugs at reduced prices and sell them to patients and their insurers for much more, often at facilities in affluent communities. One participant is the Cleveland Clinic’s flagship hospital, which reported $1.35 billion in net income last year. The hospital doesn’t admit enough Medicaid and low-income Medicare patients to qualify for low-cost drugs under the program’s original requirements. But a quirk in federal law allowed the hospital to qualify as a “rural referral center,” despite its location near the center of Cleveland. Despite the benefits, the program hasn’t resulted in new drug discounts for low-income Cleveland Clinic patients, nor has it caused the hospital to increase the financial assistance it offers to those who can’t afford care. The charity care the main hospital writes off represents less than 2% of its patient revenue, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of hospital Medicare filings.” How much patients would benefit if the government could look into loopholes like this and close them?

TikTok Spied On Forbes Journalists. This is very devastating to TikTok and concerning for everybody else. I deleted my TikTok app a long time ago and never regret it even for one second. Stories that surfaced recently show that TikTok gathers a lot of data on user and engages in surveillance tracking. The US government already bans TikTok on government devices. But why stops there? Why not outlawing the service throughout the US? In that case, it would badly decimate TikTok’s ads business and could probably bankrupt the company. That’s not to mention the EU that is even less forgiving on this kind of surveillance than the US. Honestly, I don’t see a way back for TikTok.

The Secret To Better Habits in 2023. A great timely read

Unpacking India’s growth, geopolitics, technology and superpower potential. “I asked him to make the strongest case he could against the growth story. He set the stage by saying India is a vast and diverse country. There is no other democracy of this size and heterogeneity in both a social as well as geographical sense. Rajeev has held a view that the Western countries want India to do well enough to be an attractive market for their own companies but that they may not actually want India to keep building economic capabilities because, with economic size and capacity, India could become more competitive in the foreign policy realm in particular.

Stats

The EU will grant €1.13bn to tech startups in 2023. Still it doesn’t seem enough in the grand scheme of things

World Cup Final Draws Record 16.8 Million Viewers for Fox

Amazon Fresh is currently operating 44 stores

Servers cost Twitter $1.5 billion a year