Weekly reading – 11th June 2022

What I wrote last week

Apple Pay Later

Business

Macy’s, Gap and Other Clothing Stores Are Stuck With the Wrong Items. An interesting report on how retailers got forecasting and inventory badly wrong. Macy’s, Walmart, Gap, Kohl’s, just to name a few, have a lot of inventory that they can’t sell at the moment or at least can’t sell fast enough. Remember that the executives at such companies are experienced and paid handsomely to nail down forecast. The fact that their calculations are so far off shows how unpredictable consumer behavior changes in this environment

Grocery’s Greatest Stories. Progressive Grocer has an interesting multi-part series on the history of grocers in the U.S, ranging from the start of Albersons or Walmart to the acquisition of Whole Foods by Amazon.

Axon Ditches Plans for Weaponized Taser Drones as Majority of Ethics Board Resigns. It’s a dangerous, revenue-driven and badly-conceived idea to develop drones to address mass-shootings. What are they trying to achieve with this kind of products? Who would fly these drones and could those drones even navigate through schools’ hallways? If a shooter knows about the drones, comes to a school, shoots people and leaves quickly before anyone could even fire up those expensive toys, what good would it be? More importantly, what if these drones fell into the wrong hands? I am happy that folks on Axon’s Ethics Board stood up for what they believed in and resigned in protest. As a shareholder of Axon, I am disappointed.

Charlie Munger: Full Transcript of Daily Journal’s 2022 Annual Meeting. It’s mind-blowing that Charlie Munger can be this clear in his thinking at 98. I am such a strong admirer of him.

Ferrari boss Mattia Binotto explains five-year journey back to top end of F1. It’s down to the people and the “no blame” culture, not the machinery. This issue is about the painful recovery of Ferrari. As the most famous and successful team in F1, Ferrari has disappointingly failed to win a title since 2008. 2020 was the worst year on record. The car was as slow as a tractor. However, Ferrari has bounced back amid the largest rule changes in the last few years. The Prancing Horse won the most poles this year, bagged two wins and are the two top teams of the paddock along with Red Bull.

How Two Africans Overcame Bias To Build A Startup Worth Billions. A sneak peek into the fintech startup scene in Africa. Much as I admire the two men on the cover, I was abhorred by the fact that a VC firm wanted a discount because Chipper Cash is from Africa.

Engineer Who Fled Charges of Stealing Chip Technology in US Now Thrives in China. Semiconductor is so important that whatever country “owns” it will have outsized influence in the world. China wants global domination and definitely doesn’t want to be beholden to any country for chips. Yet, semiconductor is the one area that it still lags behind other advanced nations. Hence, it resorts to theft of intellectual property to close the gap. It deserves every condemnation there is.

Behind Apple’s Megadeal for Brad Pitt Formula One Racing Film From Joseph Kosinski. “The key to the deal is a theatrical distribution component. But instead of a token release in a small number of theaters or a day-and-date opening, the movie would have an exclusive — and global — run of at least 30 days (one source says it could even go as high as 60 days) before heading to the Apple TV+ platform. In another first, insiders say the theatrical component is structured in a way that would see Apple and the filmmakers split the take from the big-screen release 50-50. The unique deal, in essence, pays the creative team three ways: their upfront fees, their hefty buyout fees and the theatrical backend.”

Other stuff I find interesting

Cao Bang – a green pearl in northeastern mountains. Imposing, magnificent and beautiful Cao Bang in Vietnam

How to buy a chicken sandwich in Shenzhen. Fascinating read on the livestream e-commerce space in China. Total Addressable Market is estimated at $100 billion. In 2021, there were 461 million people who shopped on livestream in China.

The New LaGuardia Is Haunted by the Mistakes of its Past. An interesting read on the redesign of LaGuardia airport. I was there a few months ago and I had to say that I was surprised to see the modernity of the airport. I still held onto this notion that LaGuardia was this old place in a decaying condition. Landing in the new Terminal B from Omaha was an eye-opener. Hence, it’s great to read the context on why the airport went through such a transformation

Adult Children of Work-Visa Recipients Forced to Return to Parents’ Countries. It’s just terribly sad to read that children of Dreamers have to voluntarily leave the US because they cannot get a valid status. It is NOT their fault at all. The only thing that is wrong for them is to spend most of their lives in a country with a broken immigration system. Look at the biggest companies in the US and in the world. From which country are their CEOs? India! Then, how come do we need to make them wait for years and years to get a Green Card? It’s insanely infuriating.

The epic story behind the Ferrari and Lamborghini rivalry. A great story and reminder that you should not piss off your customers

Stats

Average Order Value at the top-performing quartile grocers is 46% higher than that of the other stores

Walmart is building 4 next-generation fulfillment centers in the next 3 years that can provide next-or-two-day shipping to 75% of the US population

Nearly 20 million people watched the Jan 6. hearing

Pokemon Go surpassed $6 billion in lifetime player spending

Food-at-home prices in May up 11.9% from a year ago

Future looks bleak for Sebastian Vettel

Sebastian Vettel is a 4-time Formula 1 champion. He is the first ballot hall of fame in the future with his trophy cabinet and the record of the youngest pole sitter ever. He has been the lead driver in Ferrari since 2015, and up to, possibly, today. In the Italian Grand Prix today, Vettel started fourth behind the Mercedes drivers and his much younger and less experienced teammate Charles Leclerc. Instead of fighting in the top, he spun, came back to the track dangerously, hit Lance Stroll and received a 10-second stop and go penalty, the most severe punishment behind only disqualification. His race was over at the point. Luckily for Ferrari and all the Tifosis, Charles Leclerc withstood the assaults from the Silver Arrows to win the race, first for Ferrari since 2010. As a result, Leclerc has now beaten Vettel in qualifying 7 races in a row, leapfrogged the German in the driver standing and been responsible for Ferrari’s two wins this season. The changing of the guards seems completed.

What went wrong for the 4-time champion? Every problem and mistake he has made for the past months looks to stem from his disastrous race in Germany last year. He was cruising to the win, but crashed out of the race on his own. Since then, he hasn’t been himself. Mistake after mistake and after each one, the pressure kept piling on. There is an argument that Vettel can’t cope with hungrier and younger teammates. At Red Bull, he was thoroughly beaten y Ricciardo. Now, Charles Leclerc has gotten the better of him. The pressure to win at Ferrari is incredible. His failure to win a world title with the Reds isn’t completely his fault. The team failed to give him a competitive car all year long. But his mistakes recently have been nobody’s but his and his alone.

Ferrari repeatedly said he would still race for the Red team next year and I am confident that is the case. Nonetheless, what if next year will be even worse since Leclerc will likely be more settled at Ferrari. He won’t secure a drive at Mercedes. Nor will he at Red Bull now that Max is the team leader and Red Bull is known for promoting drivers internally. Where would he go? Rumors of retirement have been circulating around the paddock and I would hate to see him retire at 33. He has still much to offer. But I think Ferrari should take him off the grid for the remainder of 2019 and install a young driver next to Charles. Doing so will give Vettel time to collect himself and get ready for next year as well as test a potential option in case the German walks after 2020. If a break can’t get him back to his formidable old self, I doubt leaving him on track for the rest of the season will do him any better.

Nonetheless, I wish for his sake and the team’s (I have been a Ferrari fan since 2005 and the last 10 years has been rough) that Vettel would find his way back to the top of the echelon of F1 soon.

Fernando Alonso

The final race of the 2018 Formula 1 season will be this Sunday at Abu Dhabi. It’s also the final race, possibly ever, of one of the greatest drivers who ever drove a Formula 1 car: Fernando Alonso. Tributes of the man by news outlets have already begun. Though there are still a few days away, I already have goosebumps and feel a bit sad. 

Alonso is a two-time world champion from Spain. Even though his race wins or pole laps never fully reflect the talent of the man, he is well-regarded on the paddock and more than 10 years of watching the sport, I have never heard or read even once that his talent is ever doubted. All I have read is one of the greatest drivers in the history whose career is littered with driving the wheels off his cars, taking a car’s capacity beyond its limits, ill-informed decisions and utterly bad luck. 

I was super elated when he decided to drive for Ferrari, my favorite team. He won in the first ever race with the team! The first 3 years, especially 2010 and 2012, were remarkable and bittersweet. He and the team lost two championships on the final race twice and through bad luck despite having an uncompetitive car. Per BBC in their 5-part story on the man

In the fourth-fastest car, Alonso led the championship for much of the season, taking three outstanding victories along the way in Malaysia, Valencia and Germany. He was overtaken by Vettel in a burst of four consecutive wins by the German in a run of races in Asia in the closing stages of the season. But Alonso lost the title only because of two instances of bad luck.


He was taken out at the start of both the Belgian and Japanese Grands Prix: in Spa by Romain Grosjean’s flying Lotus after the Frenchman tangled with Lewis Hamilton’s McLaren; at Suzuka when the front wing of Kimi Raikkonen’s Lotus punctured his left rear tyre.


Had only one of those incidents not happened, Alonso would have been champion.

The two championships lost in 2010 and 2012 sadden me to this day. I cannot re-watch the final races of those two years again ever. It’s just too difficult to take. 

Though in the middle of two Capstones, I cannot wait to watch, for one last time, one of the greats. Hopefully his McClaren will give him and all the fans, myself included, two hours of Fernando Alonso. 

This is his favorite race win and mine. A spectacular win from 11th position