Weekly reading – 1st April 2023

What I wrote last week

Travel to DC

Business

($) Social Media Platforms Are Asking Users for Money. They Probably Don’t Mean You. Charging power users makes sense. It’s impossible in my mind that social media can charge ordinary users while they can only make money when their platforms are accessible to many. The problem is that the current benefits don’t justify a subscription. Even if the benefits are good enough to warrant a recurring payment, the platform operators need to thread the needle carefully. Content creators are sought after. Platforms incentivize creators to generate exclusive content. If charged too high, what would stop creators from uprooting their content and bringing it to another?

JPMorgan Chase buys data platform for startups in push to serve venture capital investors. JPMorgan Chase is showing that it’s serious about becoming a key player in the venture capital game. There is already a matchmaking platform in place for investors and entrepreneurs. The acquisition of aumni brings in a data analytics platform for venture firms. In addition, there is also Global Shares, a startup specialized in managing employee stock grants. The behemoth bank is ready to open its wallet to bring in critical capabilities from the outside. The end game? My GUESS is that JPMorgan Chase wants to be the commercial bank for these startups, to nurture the relationship till they become public names and to house the enormous sum of deposits that can fuel the lending side.

How to hire a CFO and build a finance team. “Seasoned chief financial officers (CFOs) help a business ramp toward IPO, optimize treasury management, and even navigate major external crises, as we’ve seen with recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. But it’s not always clear when and how to find the right finance leader. 

($) Uber Eats to Take Down Thousands of Virtual Brands to Declutter the App. As a shareholder, I am happy to see Uber take this action. It’s not cheap for the company to acquire and retain customers. Hence, it’s imperative to make the user experience on the app as smooth and great as possible. Removing bogus listings that erode the consumer trust is a low hanging fruit and a good start.

Other stuff I find interesting

There’s a ‘Subterranean Galapagos’ Deep Inside the Earth. “There is a vast biosphere deep underground that is nearly twice as big as Earth’s oceans and contains some 23 billion tons of organisms.”

What happens when you subsidize EVs but not charging stations. The adoption of EVs hinges on how fast the installation of the charing network takes place. And I have a nagging feeling that Chinese companies, not their peers from the Western world, will take advantage of the situation

Charlie Munger in Conversation with Todd Combs. “I think the people who tend to get the best results are these fanatics who just keep searching for the great businesses. And the best of them don’t expect to find 10 or 20 or 30. They find one or two. And that’s the right way to do it — but all you need are one or two.”

M-Pesa has been huge for Kenya’s economy — and for scammers. The rule of thumb when looking at news reports on fintech startups is that you should inquire about losses, delinquency and fraud, in addition to the shiny objects like revenue or growth

Stats

99% of Warren Buffett’s net worth came after he turned 50

Private jet pollution in Europe has skyrocketed 855% since the pandemic. For a region that always sounds committed to the fight against climate change, this is hypocritical.

The value of venture deals on e-Commerce startups was $8.8 billion in 2022, a marked drop from $12.6 billion in 2021

Source: Twitter

Weekly reading – 5th November 2022

What I wrote last week

Apple Earnings

Small but important things

Business

How Google’s Ad Business Funds Disinformation Around the World. A large scale investigation into how Google’s Ads benefit sites that distribute misinformation in non-English speaking countries. I understand that this problem is not easy, but Google is known for engineering prowess and this is an engineering problem. If ads still shows up on sites flagged as misinformers, it’s because someone decides to turn a blind eye on them. “ProPublica also scanned close to 10,000 active articles that fact checkers in the three Balkan countries flagged for false claims since 2019. Just over 60% were earning money with Google. The articles included a range of falsehoods about national politics, the pandemic, vaccines, the war in Ukraine and other topics. Dejan Petar Zlatanovic operates Srbin.info, a Serbian website that publishes pro-Kremlin propaganda copied from Russian state media, election conspiracies about the U.S. and anti-LGBTQ content. Its homepage features a prominent hyperlink directly to the official Kremlin website. Google ads abound there and on article pages. Zlatanovic said in an email that Srbin.info earns between $5,000 and $7,000 per month, with Google ads providing a key portion of the revenue.

The Hype Cycles of Venture Capital. Our society praises monumental wins of venture capitalists passionately and holds those men and women in high regard. But I don’t see the same vigor in criticisms when they fumble millions of capital on new, exciting and…useless ideas. Anyone remember Clubhouse? Or Bird?

Inflation – Stealing From Savers. The headline is that inflation is not going away any time soon and investors will have a hard time to earn sizable returns

After leading $20 billion Figma deal, Adobe’s David Wadhwani is in prime spot to be next CEO. As an Adobe shareholder, I feel good reading this article. Who’s better to succeed the current CEO than the guy championing the subscription business model and having the credentials of leading AppDynamics to be acquired by Cisco.

($) Big Tech’s Dirty Supply Chains Undercut Climate Promises From HQ. “Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. have pledged to run their own operations on 100% clean power. But their suppliers — the lesser known companies that make the key components of hit products like the Kindle, the Xbox or Pixel mobiles — remain deeply reliant on fossil fuels. Twelve of the 14 top suppliers get on average 5.4% of their energy from renewable sources or don’t disclose, data from a Greenpeace report released Friday showed. Taiwan’s TSMC is sucking up as much electricity as Sri Lanka’s 21-million population and is expected to use up 12.5% of the island’s annual power consumption by 2025. More than half of Taiwan’s energy is generated from coal and fossil fuels. In South Korea, home to another critical chip-supplier, SK Hynix, the story is similar. The company’s chip factories consume power equivalent to 1.6 million South Korean households and more than 60% of the country’s power comes from burning coal and natural gas.”

JPMorgan Chase wants to disrupt the rent check with its payments platform for landlords and tenants. This is an exciting new product from JP Morgan. It’s so frustrating that tenants have to pay by checks every month because landlords refuse to upgrade their infrastructure. I myself was asked to provide a check as collateral the last two times I tried to book a facility in my apartment building. I abandoned the booking simply because I refused to go to a branch just for a check. For JPMorgan Chase, this can be a strategically great move. At $500 billion in rent payment volume annually, even 0.2% of interchange and/or processing fee can bring in an extra $1 billion in revenue. Landlords that park their rent payments in a Chase account can help the bank get more deposits to fund their more lucrative loan-originating business. Last but not least, even if JPMorgan Chase doesn’t require landlords or tenants to be a customer of the bank, this new platform can serve as a tool to scout new prospects. Think about it this way. If the bank knows the address and rent-paying behavior of a prospect, it can leverage that data to craft a profile and run a marketing campaign toward that profile accordingly. That information is first party, reliably accurate and NOT easy to have.

This is how much more Apple Music pays artists than Spotify [Video]. I wonder what non-disclosure agreements these streaming services have with artists. But this is damning to Spotify. If a few more artists come out to back up this revelation, they will be under pressure to increase payout and that would mean higher expenses and less margin. Investors will not like that

Apple CFO talked about the small scale of his Finance team and how efficient they are

Other stuff I find interesting

How the New York City steam system works. The story of steam actually begins in Ancient Rome, where enterprising Romans were already building steam pipe systems for heating buildings and baths. The technology spread to the rest of Europe, but it was in the United States during the late 19th century. Inventors and businessmen turned it into a commercially viable heating option for towns and cities. New York was the first major city in the U.S. to have a steam system and still has the largest one to this day. In fact, if you add up the next five largest steam systems in America, it’s still smaller than New York City’s.

In Greece’s largest port of Piraeus, China is the boss. Europe must be mindful of these investments in key infrastructure by China. If there is opposition to China getting semiconductor technologies from the US, why shouldn’t there be caution when it comes to key infrastructure?

Why Switzerland built a 2-kilometer-long train. I am marveled by the fact that there is a 2km-long train out there. I wouldn’t get on board if the train was operated in many countries, including Vietnam. But since this is the Swiss we are talking about, I’d give it a shot.

The enduring sexism of India’s tech industry. With 1.3 billion people in population and a big portion of that as women, India would be even more competitive if they could foster a culture more liberating and friendly towards women

Vietnam is luring tech giants out of China with flashy infrastructure projects. If our country just provides lands and labor, there will be little transfer of technological, commercial or scientific knowledge. Don’t get me wrong. It’s good to increase the GDP and all that for Vietnam, but I’d prefer us taking a page out of Singapore’s playbook.

($) The Metals for Your EV Are Stuck in a 30-Mile Traffic Jam. This is an eye-opening account on how copper is transferred from mines to ports in Africa. My gosh, what a tough gig it is. The whole continent is hungry for infrastructure investments that will make thousands of lives easier and improve commerce. Rich countries wishing to establish influence should pay attention and act before China does, if they haven’t already

Stats

Meta’s Reality Labs is projected to cost as much as the Apollo Program, the very one that landed humans on the Moon

37% of small business owners in the U.S. were unable to pay their rent in full and on time in October

Weekly reading – 17th September 2022

What I wrote last week

Relocation from Vietnam to the US with a cat

Business

JPMorgan Chase acquires payments fintech Renovite to help it battle Stripe and Block. Incumbent financial institutions are sparing no coins to invest in their technology stacks. Capital One has always touted itself as a technology company. JPMorgan Chase has plowed so much money into fintech that the long-time CEO Jamie Dimon is under pressure to justify the investments. But that’s the name of the game. Any company that wants to compete in finance in the future will need to put money where its mouth is

Goldman’s Apple Card business has a surprising subprime problem. Given the lack of disclosure from either Goldman Sachs and Apple on earnings calls, it’s helpful to finally to see some performance metrics of the Apple Card portfolio. The headlines are that more than 25% of the overall outstandings is from folks with FICO lower than 660 and the loss rates are among the highest in the industry. The article did well to note that Apple Card is a young business; therefore, its loss rates may not be fully comparable to other fully established ones. I’d also love to learn about the share of balance from Apple purchases. My theory is that since a lot of people use the Apple Card to break their payment into installments, the lower FICO crowd is responsible for the bulk of such payment plans’ balance. Is that necessarily a good thing? I don’t know. But if these “bad apples” are barred from holding an Apple Card ever again, whoever is left will be good loyal customers.

Apple’s Next Big Thing: A Business Model Change. Apple’s executive team doesn’t get enough credit for their long-term vision, the ability to pivot & execute and their relentless patience.

($) How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; ‘There Were a Lot of Doubters’. Vicki Hollub sounds quite a businesswoman, an operator and an executive!

How to blow $85 million in 11 months: The inside story of Airlift’s crash. Another one on a long list of examples of how companies collapse due to the “move fast and break things” mantra.

($) Instagram Stumbles in Push to Mimic TikTok, Internal Documents Show. If I were Meta investors, I would be worried. The company commits huge investments, HUGEEEEEEE, to the Metaverse, a concept championed by the CEO which, in my opinion, is very very far from reality and of course, monetization. Its business model built upon surveillance tracking is under pressure from Apple’s privacy-centric, though controversial, policies. Meanwhile, Reels, which is one of the highest priorities, is no match against TikTok. According to the Chief Operating Officer of Instagram, Reel’s differentiation comes from the ease of sharing content. I mean, that’s a very weak point. “Instagram users cumulatively are spending 17.6 million hours a day watching Reels, less than one-tenth of the 197.8 million hours TikTok users spend each day on that platform, according to a document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal that summarizes internal Meta research. The internal document showed that nearly one-third of Reels videos are created on another platform, usually TikTok, and include a watermark or border identifying them as such. Meta said it “downranks” these videos, meaning it shows them to smaller audiences to reduce the incentives for those that post them, but they continue to proliferate. For Reels users, the result is that often they are shown videos recycled from another, more popular platform. The portion of Instagram users who think the company “cares about” them fell from nearly 70% in 2019 to roughly 20% earlier this summer. On the question of whether the product was “good for the world,” the score fell from more than 60% in 2019 to slightly over 45%.”

Other stuff I find interesting

Good enough. On Twitter and business websites, you see all kinds of people trying to predict the performance of a stock or a business. Some do it with a breath-taking degree of condescension and over-confidence. At work, the phrase “data-driven” which refers to the practice of using historical data to back up a course of action is just overused and bores me to death. Instead, I like what Morgan proposed. Make all the predicting and forecasting good enough and then spend the unused bandwidth on something else. I don’t know, like understanding the industry, the customers or what is holding the company back and fixing it.

Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World. A great perspective by Morgan Housel

Shanghai emerges as China’s semiconductor highland. “In total, the market size of Shanghai’s semiconductor industry reached 250 billion yuan (US$36.95 billion) in 2021, or about a quarter of China’s total, according to Wu. The city has attracted over one thousand key industry players and over 40 per cent of the country’s chip talent, Wu added. Shanghai’s relative success in cultivating a big local semiconductor industry has been partly helped by the city’s preferential policies. To attract semiconductor businesses, talent and investors to the city, the Shanghai authority has rolled out a series of preferential measures, from government subsidies to tax breaks. Even during the city’s draconian lockdown in April and May, the local authority gave priority to semiconductor businesses to resume their production and operations as soon as possible.”

The Oldest Restaurant in Kabul: Where Tradition Trumps Rockets. “During the four decades of war that Afghanistan has been through, the Broot family never left the country. They kept their restaurant open and continued serving chainakito the hungry people of Kabul as rockets rained on their neighborhood, bombs exploded, and regimes changed.

Discipline is Destiny: 25 Habits That Will Guarantee You Success

Stats

Indonesia, Brazil, Ghana and Suriname accounted for 80% of tropical forest loss due to industrial mining between 2000 and 2019

Top-Ranked US Colleges All Cost More Than $55,000 a Year. BEFORE room and board.

U.S. mortgage interest rates top 6% for first time since 2008

Source: Twitter

Weekly reading – 30th January 2021

What I wrote last week

What I like about Apple Fitness+

Business

An excellent write-up on the state of news outlets or local journalism in America. It’s astounding that half of the local news outlets are now owned by private equity, hedge funds or other investment firms

SoftBank’s plan to sell Arm to NVIDIA is hitting antitrust wall around the world

Brexit has major implications. Whether the net benefits are positive or not remains to be seen, but this new development doesn’t seem to benefit consumers: Mastercard is hiking fees

AirBnb conducted a new survey that said: One in five want their destination to be within driving distance of home. Not a very good sign for airlines

N26 got 7 million customers

Apple published a document that outlines its imminent privacy policies

Some notable data from a letter from YouTube CEO

Over the last three years, we’ve paid more than $30 billion to creators, artists, and media companies.

YouTube Gaming had 100 billion hours of content in 2020

Our Music and Premium Subscriptions have been growing quickly, reaching more than 30 million paid Members in the third quarter of last year.

Source: YouTube

Technology

A glimpse into JPMorgan Chase’s $12 billion annual tech budget. There are quite some interesting features that the interviewee shared

CB Insights has a write-up on 40 companies that are working on autonomous vehicles

A long but great list of big ideas from ARK

What I found interesting

How homogeneous is Japan

What does the night sky look like on Mars?

A French-Vietnamese woman is fighting for justice for victims of war crimes. It’s crazy that US and Korean veterans received compensations from chemical companies because their products which were used in the Vietnam War had life-altering effects. Yet, Vietnamese victims have not received any.

What I find is that it is often these kinds of multiple small mispriced insights that overtime compound to form a business which is very defensible and very difficult to replicate. The discovery of those multiple small insights really requires a bottom-up organic idiosyncratic investment process.

Source: Interview with Mark Walker from Tollymore Investment Partners