Weekly reading – 30th April 2022

What I wrote last week

Thoughts on Buy With Prime

Business

Starbucks Is Having an Identity Crisis. Can Howard Schultz Fix It? 70% of Starbuck’s orders are to-go. The popularity of their mobile app is magnificent, yet it goes against the identity that Howard Schultz envisioned when he bought the brand. He wanted Starbucks to be the 3rd place that people frequent in addition to work and home. Starbucks needs to decide on its future identity and positioning. Because if most orders are picked up at drive-through, what the hell are the stores for?

Will Ford’s new truck finally make Americans buy electric? “Surveys, both by the company and independent analysts, have found that customers for the F-150 are typically younger, richer, more urban than the truck’s traditional mainstream buyer – and in many cases have never owned a truck before. Like the rest of the industry, the company is contending with shortages of key computer processing chips, batteries and other materials that have held back production – and challenged the company’s effort to keep the starting price at about $40,000 (£31,500)”. It doesn’t sound very easy, does it?

Netflix’s Battle for Asian Subscribers Pits It Against Rich Rivals, Hundreds of Local Upstarts. The challenge for Netflix in Asia is multiple-fold. First, it has to keep the subscription prices low while needing to spend millions of dollars on local original content. Second, its competition is nothing but fierce and they are willing to keep the prices low to retain customers. Some such as Disney or Amazon are willing to splash a big sum on sports such as IPL to woo local viewers in India. Netflix hasn’t shown interest in following suit so far. The company once thought invincible at least in the streaming world doesn’t look invincible, does it?

Kard, a fintech that helps credit card issuers build custom reward programs by brands. “The company works with roughly 30 issuers today, representing 10 million consumers, Mackinnon said. It helps process about 60 million transactions per month, and has seen revenue grow 10x over the past year, according to Mackinnon, though he declined to share a specific revenue figure. He describes the business as a two-sided marketplace for rewards, with merchant partnerships on the supply side and card issuers on the demand side. For issuers, the API is powerful because it “connects them to merchants, brands, retailers that essentially are the funding vehicle for any of their rewards,”

Netflix’s Big Wake-Up Call: The Power Clash Behind the Crash. Cindy Holland seems to be the one person who wants to steer Netflix to adopt Apple TV+’s strategy. Nobody can guarantee that if Cindy hadn’t left, Netflix wouldn’t be in where they are today. She could have stayed and Netflix could have been just as bad or worse. But it’s baffling to let go the relationship-building wizard that forged a bond with the studios and not find a replacement. I have to say, though, that when Netflix was dominating the streaming market and a darling of Wall Street, you didn’t get to read these pieces. You were served with articles on how great Netflix and its culture were. As soon as the company’s fortune plummeted, critical reporting show up like mushrooms after rain.

Vietnam’s VinFast takes the EV battle to Tesla with U.S. push. The pace of development at Vinfast fits the culture of quick results and brand ambition at Vingroup. That’s how they always do things. That approach doesn’t necessarily come with the best quality of products or services. Hence, the question becomes: do they think up a thorough plan to penetrate and dominate the EV market in the US? Every car maker in the world wants to succeed in the US. It’s home to Tesla, which has an enormous scale advantage. It’s home to Ford, which is always a familiar brand in the mind of Americans. There are always Volswagen, Hyundai, Kia, Subaru, Toyota, Mazda etc…Such a list of world-famous brands indicate nothing but fierce competition. The first movers also have great scale advantage. List cars at too high a price and Vinfast won’t make enough sale. List them too low and the company wont have any profit. Whether Vinfast can weather the initial storm to reach critical mass remains a giant question mark.

Inside the first suburban Amazon Go store. I have a nagging feeling that Amazon is playing a really long game here and soon enough in the future they will become a major grocery chain

Other stuff I find interesting

Why didn’t our ancient ancestors get cavities? It is a very interesting theory that our transition to agriculture is the likely cause of our cavities

Women and girls have to pay for water with their body and dignity. The struggle people in poor countries around the world has to face makes it even more incredulous whenever folks in the US complain about trivial problems. I don’t know like having to wear a mask during Covid or taking life-saving vaccines.

Stats

According to the founder of TSMC, it costs 50% more to produce the same chips in the US than in Taiwan

80% of US consumers use BNPL to avoid credit cards, according to Experian

According to Mastercard, global first-party fraud which refers to a legitimate online purchase being disputed after the fact amounts to $50 billion

Online retail sales in India is estimated to reach $85.5 billion in 2025

Banks and credit unions pulled in more than $15 billion in overdraft and related fees in 2019 and $12 billion in late credit card fees in 2020

Google Pay has 150 million users across 40 countries, as of April 2022

Starbucks in Vietnam

I came across an interesting video by CNBC on Starbucks’ alleged struggle in Vietnam.

I agree with several points brought up in the video clip, but there isn’t much data to back up their thesis that Starbucks is struggling in Vietnam. The only corroborating data is a Starbucks store per capita. Apparently, the figure in Vietnam is much lower compared to that in our neighboring countries.

Nonetheless, there is no financial data that indicates Starbucks is struggling in our country. Moreover, Starbucks has been expanding slowly yet steadily in Vietnam.

To show that Starbucks is struggling, the video reported that the chain owns less than 3% of the market. Well, which market? If you’re talking about the market that involves every mom-and-pop shop in every province and everybody across all income brackets, then I am not surprised at the low market share. Coffee at street stalls is significantly cheaper than coffee at Starbucks and I doubt you can find the chain outside of the major cities such as Hanoi, Saigon or Danang. But Starbucks isn’t for everyone. To make the market share figure more relevant, it has to be for the upscale market. Compare Starbucks with Runam, the Workshop and stores in shopping malls, and see how the green brand fares. My experience with Starbucks in Saigon is that it never lacks traffic. It always seems popular to the citizens. The point is that the video lacks quantitative evidence to make the case.

There is one more example that I want to add regarding how Starbucks doesn’t really fit in the Vietnamese culture. We Vietnamese people like to go to coffee shops and spend hours there working or browsing the Internet. In Starbucks stores in Vietnam, you are given one Wifi code for each receipt and each code is good for two hours, I believe. Asking for one more code is possible, but if a customer forgets, it will be inconvenient for an average Vietnamese customer.

Weekly readings – 24th August 2019

Spotify’s pitch to podcasters: valuable listener data

Netherlands’ Building Ages. How cool is this? It must have taken quite some time and effort to build this map.

OuiWork? The quick case for WeWork as an actually disruptive business

Apple Targets Apple TV+ Launch in November, Weighs $9.99 Price After Free Trial

Where Top US Banks Are Betting On Fintech

Manufacturers Want to Quit China for Vietnam. They’re Finding It Impossible

Apple’s New TV Strategy Might Just Work

MoviePass database exposes 161 million records. Much as I am grateful to MoviePass, perhaps it’s time for the company to be shut down

Starbucks, monetary superpower. Let me give you a notable quote to get an idea of what this article is about

Starbucks has around $1.6 billion in stored value card liabilities outstanding. This represents the sum of all physical gift cards held in customer’s wallets as well as the digital value of electronic balances held in the Starbucks Mobile App.* It amounts to ~6% of all of the company’s liabilities. 

This is a pretty incredible number. Stored value card liabilities are the money that you, oh loyal Starbucks customer, use to buy coffee. What you might not realize is that these balances  simultaneously function as a loan to Starbucks. Starbucks doesn’t pay any interest on balances held in the Starbucks app or gift cards. You, the loyal customer, are providing the company with free debt. 

Now bigger than eBay, Shopify sets its sights on Amazon

Inside India’s Messy Electric Vehicle Revolution