What I learn from Pinterest IPO Filing

Pinterest, that photo bookmarking tool, filed this Friday to go public. Here is what I learned from reading their S-1:

Their main users are women

Pinterest reaches more than 250 million monthly active users, two thirds of whom are female. In the United States, our total audience includes 43% of internet users, according to an independent study by Comscore based on total unique visitors to our service. This includes eight out of 10 moms, who are often the primary decision-makers when it comes to buying products and services for their household, as well as more than half of all U.S. millennials. We expect to continue to grow our user base over time, especially in international markets

Pinterest S-1

The majority of their Monthly Active Users is outside the US, but most of their revenue comes from the US

They did make money on two quarters and their business seems to have some seasonality

Their non-cancelable long-term contractual commitments

In addition, as of December 31, 2018, we had approximately $731.1 million of long-term contractual commitments that are not cancelable. In March 2019 we also entered into a lease for office space to be constructed near our current headquarters campus for which we will be subject to total non-cancelable minimum lease payments of approximately $420.0 million beginning in 2022 if certain contingencies are met.

Some particularly concerning risks

• We may not be able to develop effective products and tools, including measurement tools, for advertisers
• We may not succeed in further expanding and monetizing our platform internationally.
• We have incurred operating losses in the past, anticipate increasing our operating expenses, expect to incur operating losses in the future and may never achieve or maintain profitability.

Reliance on Facebook and Google Single Sign On

A significant number of Pinners use their Facebook or Google login credentials to access their accounts on our service. If security on those platforms is compromised, if Pinners are locked out from their accounts on those platforms or if those platforms experience an outage, Pinners may be unable to access our service. As a result, user growth and engagement on our service could be adversely affected, even if for a temporary period. For example, in the second quarter of 2018, Facebook changed its login authentication systems, which negatively impacted our user growth and engagement in that period. Additionally, if Facebook or Google discontinue single sign-on or experience an outage, then we may lose and be unable to recover users previously using this function, and our user growth or engagement could decline.

Personal Thoughts

Personally, I am not very bullish on Pinterest’s prospect. The good news is that it managed to make more money from its US base more in 2018 than it did in 2017. The bad news is that it has failed to monetize its majority of its MAUs which are outside of the US. To really grow and consistently be profitable in the future, I think Pinterest needs to rectify the situation overseas soon.

It acknowledged the filing that it may not be able to achieve profitability in the future. While it may not be uncommon to have a startup acknowledge that, it is unsettling to have it from an advertising company. Facebook might be in the same boat for a while after its IPO, but back then, Facebook didn’t have the same competition as Pinterest does now. In addition to Facebook and Google, there is a little problem called Amazon, which has grown to be a force to be reckoned with in the advertising world with its superior ability to connect advertising dollars with actual sale.

So far, I haven’t come across any report on privacy violations or scandals related to fake news, propaganda or human rights abuse, the likes of which took place on Twitter and Facebook. It remains to be seen how Pinterest would handle such issues in the future once and if it grows bigger.