Business

How to think about risks with Howard Marks. Thought-provocative.

Paul Graham and the Cult of the Founder. I do think that PG and Y Combinator offer some values to startups. Their existence and longevity are proof of it. It is fair, though, to ask a question as to what such startups would do WITHOUT the known incubator. The founder cult that PG, Y Combinator, a16z and others display is indeed annoying and to some extent, dangerous.

Amazon Tells Workers to Return to Office Five Days a Week. A stricter back-to-office mandate is usually followed by layoffs. An even stronger indicator that Amazon will redeploy some folks is the call for a leaner organization with more contributors and fewer managers. Some people at Amazon may have sleepless nights from now on. I believe that the more companies follow the footsteps of Apple, Amazon or Chase, the more others will feel bolder to drag employees back to work. Nobody wants to be the first and lose talent. However, if back-to-office is the norm, why not?

Tech Jobs Have Dried Up—and Aren’t Coming Back Soon. A nightmare scenario for white-collar workers. Good jobs are in short supply and companies continue to lay off people. It’s a vicious cycle. The more people are laid off, the more competition for whatever jobs are out there and the more difficult it is to land a job. This has cascading effects on other aspects of the economy. As people lose their livelihood, they have more difficulty in buying a house or paying off mortgage. If demand for houses softens, it means higher demand for renting. Rent should go up soon. Housing expenses are already elevated. If they continue to rise, we will have inflation again. Then, why did we have half a point rate cut?

Sherwin-Williams: Brushstrokes of Success. If you are not familiar with Sherwin-Williams, dive into this Business Breakdowns episode.

Walmart Teams With Fiserv on Instant Bank Payments. Walmart will let customers pay with their checking/savings accounts on walmart.com in 2025, thanks to the new partnership with Fiserv. The capability is already available, but this roll-out will be an improvement as it will let Walmart access funds and post transactions on customers’ accounts right away. For Walmart, it will improve the retailer’s cash flow and perhaps raise customer satisfaction. Not everyone is qualified for a credit card. The question will be on the adoption. American customers are accustomed to credit card rewards. Will many give up rewards? I doubt that. Nonetheless, the fact that Walmart rolls this out shows that pay-by-bank may be close to the tipping point.

Other Stuff I Find Interesting

Europe Has a Painful Choice: War vs. Welfare. Germany and other European countries now have a budget problem. Should they maintain the social welfare that is the hallmark of Western Europe? Or should they bulk up the security and military? Everything would be easier if they could improve the top line: the country’s income. However, Europe has been lagging far behind the US in terms of innovation and business growth. They have the labor from the influx of immigrants, but they must find a way to get out of the slump and be ruthless about innovation and growth.

How a Tourist Paradise Became a Drug-Trafficking Magnet. It is a shame that Costa Rica is slowing becoming a dangerous country because the people that I knew visited the country had nothing, but great things to say about it.

Too hot for humpbacks: The race to protect Pacific whales. Scientists are concerned that rising temperatures across the globe pose a threat to humpback whales. Not only are their breeding grounds too hot, but these whales also may have their primary source of food (krills) in jeopardy.

The Problem With Building Good Habits. I am glad to see that somebody is brave enough to go against the conventional wisdom on habits.

Stats

94% of new cars sold in Norway in August 2024 were EVs

The US had 653,000 homeless people in 2023

More than half of merchant ships built in 2023 were from Chinese yards