Tag: Apple TV+

Business

Apple Earnings – The Resilience & Effectiveness Of Apple

by MQDuong1 Comment on Apple Earnings – The Resilience & Effectiveness Of Apple

Last Thursday, Apple announced its Q4 FY2022 earnings results as follows

  • Revenue: $90.15 bn vs $88.9 bn estimated. Up 8% year over year (YoY)
  • Gross Margin: 42.3% vs 42.1% estimated. Essentially flat YoY
  • iPhone revenue: $42.63 bn vs $43.21 bn estimated. Up 9.7% YoY
  • Mac revenue: $11.51 bn vs $9.36 bn estimated . Up 25.4% YoY
  • iPad revenue: $7.17 bn vs $7.94 bn estimated. Down 13.6% YoY
  • Other Products revenue: $9.65 bn vs $9.17 bn estimated. Up 9.9% YoY
  • Services revenue: $19.19 bn vs $20.1 bn estimated. Up 5% YoY
  • EPS: $1.29 vs. $1.27 estimated

On the surface, it looks like a routinely great quarter for Apple, but there are a few points worth calling out.

Apple's revenue growth
Figure 1 – Apple’s revenue growth

First, Apple got hit with a 600 basis point of unfavorable foreign exchange impact due to the strength of the dollar. Had the currency exchange stayed constant, Apple’s revenue growth would likely have been two-digits and could have gone up to as much as 14%. Despite significant foreign exchange headwinds, product margin was 35%, flat compared to Q3 FY2022, and 100 basis point up year over year. This indicates Apple managed to gain efficiency and sell more expensive products. To investors who care about how a company is run, this is a good sign.

Second, the stickiness of iPhone. Since Q4 FY2020, iPhone revenue has increased year over year every quarter. In FY2022, iPhone revenue grew by 7%, on top of the monstrous 39% growth achieved in FY2021. As a billion business worth more than $200 billion, that’s no mean feat. More impressively, the numbers could have been even rosier. According to Tim Cook, the company has been facing and still faces supply chain constraints for the popular iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Had Apple had enough parts to meet the demand, they could have added a couple of more billions to their top line. In the time of unprecedented inflation and uncertain macro-economic conditions, this shows how much consumers love their iPhone and considers it more of a necessity than a luxury.

Apple business segments' revenue growth
Figure 2 – Apple business segments’ revenue growth

Next, Services grew 5% YoY and slightly missed analysts’ expectation. Adding the estimated foreign exchange impact of 600 basis points, Services would have grown by 11%, beating the consensus. Since 2018, Services has grown by double digits every year, reaching $78.1 billion in annual revenue in FY2022, up from almost $40 billion in 2018. Compared to previous year, FY2022 posed a lower annual growth, but there are levers that Apple can pull:

  • Apple recently announced price hikes on Apple Music, Apple TV+ & Apple One. The company explained that the price increase for Apple Music is due to more payouts to artists while that for Apple TV+ is fair considering the amount of content that Apple has added since the launch of the streaming service. As the flagship overarching subscription, of course, Apple One will also be more expensive. I think the justification makes sense because if Apple REALLY wanted to increase Services revenue and abuse its power, the company would raise iCloud’s prices. There are alternatives to Apple Music and TV+, but there is nothing to replace iCloud and no Apple user I know doesn’t buy additional storage. In short, this is not a move out of desperation.
  • Apple is loading more ads on the App Store. In their 2022 annual report, the company already cited advertising as one of the main drivers behind Services’ growth. Ads revenue is great and all, but too many ads will harm the user experience. Plus, there is already backlash from developers who saw online gaming ads placed next to their apps. Hence, Apple needs to be careful and considerate about pushing their advertising division
  • Apple Business Essentials. There has been no disclosure from Apple regarding this service, but I suspect it will come to the fold more in the next couple of years

Last but not least, I am really pleased with how Apple manages its costs. The gross margin profile of Products, Services and the whole company have been very stable in the last four years, despite Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, the withdrawal from Russia, the supply chain challenges and other macro-economic events. Operating expenses, including R&D and SG&A, as % of total revenue never exceeded 8% in the last four years. Based on the commentary from the executives, that should be the case for the next twelve months:

When we look at our capex, as you correctly said, I mean, we’ve been fairly stable, and I think our capital intensity is really very good. We have three major buckets in capex for the company. We have certain dedicated tools for the manufacturing facilities. We had some spend around data centers, and we have spent around our office facilities around the world. We obviously monitor all of them. There is nothing unusual that we see for the next 12 months.

When a company reaches a trillion dollar mark in valuation and generates billions of dollars in cash flow every 90 days, there is understandably a risk of being negligent on cost control. Think about yourself. Do you allow yourself more luxuries and impulsive purchases now than you did as a student and when you had lower income? From this perspective, Apple has been a disciplined and prudent steward of shareholder capital. To some extent, I don’t think you can make the same point about other big techs, such as Amazon or Facebook.

Apple's gross margin
Figure 3 – Apple’s gross margin

In short, this quarter’s results were not the most impressive that Apple has ever put out. They were just routinely and boringly good from my perspective and for the reasons I listed above. Even though there is no headline-grabbing debate-fueling stuff such as the investment in Reality Labs by Facebook, I prefer a stable and effective management that keeps their feet on the ground and produces results for shareholders.

Weekly readings

Weekly reading – 10th September 2022

by MQDuongLeave a Comment on Weekly reading – 10th September 2022

What I wrote last week

Apple is gaining share in advertising; Disney is contemplating an Amazon Prime like subscription

Business

The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero. A great post on fraud as an unavoidable risk of doing business

How Capital One Became A Leading Digital Bank. Some folks say that Capital One’s rise as one of the premier credit card issuers results from its robust data analytics. That may be true, but it’s still just a surface-level observation. What really drives Capital One’s growth is their investment in infrastructure & talent, as well as smart design of process to utilize such resources. In this article, you’ll see their CIO discuss this topic at length. As someone who works in the credit card industry, I admire what they have done and can really see why they are successful.

($) Amazon Is Still Trying to Digest Whole Foods. Integrating any multi-billion acquisition is always a challenge, but the task is even more daunting when the acquirer has to divert focus and resources to its own grocery effort. To that end, it’s impossible for outsiders to judge whether this move has been a success so far since Amazon doesn’t break out Whole Foods’ individual performance. Asking Amazon’s executives for their evaluation is similar to asking a barber if you need a haircut. It’s always going to be biased opinions.

The Facebook button is disappearing from websites as consumers demand better privacy. In the past, Facebook log-in button was all over the Internet. It was convenient and people weren’t aware of how Facebook did surveillance tracking over them. Now, the public knows and they don’t trust Facebook. The lack of trust leads to low usage as well as causes websites to be concerned about being collateral damage. As a consequence, websites don’t want anything to do with the then popular blue button. This is a prime example of how Facebook’s bad reputation is biting them in the behind and unfortunately for them it will not be the last as long as their business model is advertising based on surveillance tracking. “According to his company’s data, out of a sample of 10,000 sign-ins, 42.7% of users signed in with Google, 26.5% used Apple, 20.1% signed in via email and just 10.7% used Facebook.”

What’s SAP?

The Long Tail: The Internet and the Business of Niche

Other stuff I find interesting

Less is more agile. I agree with a lot of points that this article brought up. The traditional Waterfall method of delivering software had downsides which were especially exposed when software became increasingly complex. Only when technology got sufficiently sophisticated did we come up with a new methodology that is more efficient and allows us to incorporate changes faster. That’s Agile. But at the end of the day, Agile is just a tool and how useful it is depends a lot on who is using it and for what purposes. It’s NOT helpful to blindly follow what the coaches that have no knowledge of your organization’s culture or business say. It’s NOT helpful either to keep preaching the benefits of Agile while ignoring its downsides and what it demands from practitioners. What works for some won’t work for others. Just be mindful of what you sign up to.

I Worked at Capital One for Five Years. This Is How We Justified Piling Debt on Poor Customers. Consumer loan issuers do address real consumer needs. Health emergencies, family tragedy, desire to investment, etc. Sudden need for capital infusion. However, these issuers make most money from interest income, meaning that they WANT you to pay interest and not to default. That’s clearly not in line with the best interest of borrowers. Capital One, in this case, is just an example.

Bones: Why Utah’s desert is a paleontologist’s playground. “Only a very tiny percentage of species that ever existed on Earth have been fossilized,” according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Of those that have, only a fraction have been discovered. That’s in part due to accessibility; many fossils are likely buried so deeply that they’re unreachable. But it’s also because paleontology, as a science, remains fairly new. This particular site, now known as T2, is the confirmed resting place of a tyrannosaur, which may be the first complete adult specimen of an incredibly rare species. And the fact that it lies under 10 feet of ancient sandstone conglomerate in the Utah desert is no coincidence. Utah has been known as a paleontological treasure chest since the late 19th century. In fact, the Utah History Encyclopedia says the state boasts a “prolific fossil record that spans the entire ‘Age of Dinosaurs.’”

European cities look to phase out cars in ‘transportation revolution’. “Across the continent, urban centers are restricting cars from entering certain parts of cities as well as imposing new fees. In Paris, which holds car-free Sundays, only newer, less-polluting diesel and gasoline-powered cars can travel into “low-emission zones” across the city; by 2030, only electric or hydrogen will be able to enter the French capital at all. In Norway, where 78% of new vehicles are electric, Oslo eliminated most on-street parking spots in the city’s core. The medieval Belgian city of Ghent limits vehicles in the city center by offering free shuttles from low-priced car parks on its periphery. Drivers heading into London during business hours must pay congestion fees of $17 a day and further entry fees of $15 simply to enter “ultra-low-emission zones”; in some parts of the city, cars will soon be forbidden altogether.”

History of Labor Day

Vietnam’s Mu Cang Chai in ripe rice season a feast for the eyes. Beautiful as it is, this part of Vietnam is quite dangerous to get to. Some folks already lost their life because of treacherous roads and conditions. One of my friends nearly lost hers a few months ago. Definitely not for conservative and risk-adverse folks like myself, but I would love for the world to see my country and what we have to offer.

Stats

“Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” series drew more than 25 million viewers worldwide on its first day

China Accounts for 36% of Global Peanut Output

Apple TV+ allegedly surpasses 6% of the global market share

Source: Recurrentauto
Business

Apple and Major League Soccer

by MQDuong1 Comment on Apple and Major League Soccer

Yesterday, Apple and Major League Soccer (MLS) announced a deal that would make the Apple TV app the home of all MLS games globally in the next 10 years, starting in 2023. Fans will be able to stream all MLS games, with no blackout dates, through a subscription service only available on the Apple TV App. The League has not yet announced the details of said subscription, but are expected to do so in the coming months. Apple said the subscription would also feature highlights, replays, analyses and other original programming. Furthermore, the partnership will also seek to enhance coverage of MLS teams in Apple News and fans can watch highlights right from the News App.

Subscribers of Apple TV+, which is Apple’s own streaming service, can watch a few games at no additional cost. A limited number of games will be available for free, even to non-subscribers of Apple TV+. MLS season ticket holders will automatically receive a complimentary subscription to the MLS streaming service as an additional perk.

The two parties didn’t disclose the value of this deal, but folks familiar with the matter said that it’s worth at least $2.5 billion in its entirety, approximately $250 million a year. The current deal with ESPN+ is worth $90 million and will expire after this year. It was reported that MLS was hoping to make $300 million in annual revenue due to increasing viewership and popularity. Apart from this deal with Apple, MLS is also talking to a few cable companies over the rights to broadcast some games on linear TV.

Below is what each party had to say about this partnership:

For the first time in the history of sports, fans will be able to access everything from a major professional sports league in one place. It’s a dream come true for MLS fans, soccer fans, and anyone who loves sports. No fragmentation, no frustration — just the flexibility to sign up for one convenient service that gives you everything MLS, anywhere and anytime you want to watch. We can’t wait to make it easy for even more people to fall in love with MLS and root for their favorite club.”

Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Services

Apple is the perfect partner to further accelerate the growth of MLS and deepen the connection between our clubs and their fans. Given Apple’s ability to create a best-in-class user experience and to reach fans everywhere, it’ll be incredibly easy to enjoy MLS matches anywhere, whether you’re a super fan or casual viewer.”

Don Garber, MLS’s commissioner

Why MLS picked Apple?

In my opinion, it’s about reach and accessibility. A unique part of this deal is that Apple secured the streaming rights globally, not just within the US; which is very different from the usual practice of rights being given over select geographical areas. Apple is one of, if not, the most global and recognizable brands in the world. Its Apple TV app is available on many types of devices, not just those that run on Apple operating systems. By working with Apple, MLS has a partner that can bring the game to the global audience instantly. There is no need for MLS to set up its streaming service. It’s not an easy task, especially for a global audience. With this deal, MLS is responsible for generating content and Apple will take care of the distribution. Moreover, the Apple TV app is native on Apple devices and doesn’t require any more installation. Fans can just head to the app and subscribe to the MLS service; which the Commissioner already alluded to in his remark.

The second reason is reach. Everything Apple does is widely covered and followed. This blog entry is one example. Apple can use its massive following and Marketing expertise to increase the awareness of MLS and help the League become more global. I have no doubt that we’ll see more ads from Apple about this deal, more mentions during events & earning calls, as well as more articles from news outlets, fans and bloggers. From the League perspective, instead of running Marketing campaigns in each part of the world, either by itself or partnering with an agency, I imagine that leveraging Apple is easier and more effective.

Why Apple partnered with MLS?

I find this comment from Don Garber, the Commissioner of MLS, very interesting

This is a minimum guarantee. It’s not a rights fee,” Garber said of the non-traditional deal. “…So if we exceed the minimum guarantee, then we share in the upside in that guarantee. If we’re able to sell our linear rights for what we hope and expect to sell them for, then we would even exceed our expectations.

Source: Tennessean

The new MLS subscription service is only available through the Apple TV app. Hence, Apple will be the one collecting the subscription dollars upfront and grow its Services revenue, at least on the surface. Based on the comment from the Commissioner, I figure no matter how much revenue the MLS streaming service brings in, Apple will pay the League at least $250 million a year. Past that figure, the tech giant will be able to take a share of the upside. It’s clear that this arrangement will do two things: 1/ Apple has something exclusive to sell to its customers; 2/ MLS will have a partner incentivized to promote the League globally as much as possible. With a lot of cash and 73% in Services’ gross margin, I think Apple can afford the $250 million figure promised to MLS.

If an MLS subscription costs $100/year or less than $10/month, Apple will need at least 2.5 million subscribers around the world for it to actually make any money from selling the service itself. Given the current awareness of MLS, especially to countries outside the US, is 2.5 million subscribers an attainable threshold? Unlikely in my opinion, but over a long term, who knows? The financial success of this partnership for Apple hinges on the future popularity of MLS. There are a couple of factors that may come in handy:

The first is that the World Cup 2026 will be hosted by Canada, the US and Mexico. As the world’s biggest soccer event, the World Cup will undoubtedly raise the awareness of soccer as a sport and of MLS. Currently having 28 teams, the League will add one more next year and plan to eventually feature 32 teams in the near future. The more local teams there are, the more interest such teams will generate among communities.

The second factor is the arrival of superstars who make their names in Europe and have massive global following. We already saw household names join the MLS in the past, including David Beckham, Thierry Henry, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Wayne Rooney, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and David Villa. Recently, Giorgio Chiellini, a popular Italian veteran, signed a deal with LAFC. But MLS would rise to a whole new level if it could acquire superstars such as Messi or Suarez. These players did it all in Europe and are already rumored to play in the US soon due to the media & business landscape as well as the Latino fanbase in the country. The arrival of legends such as Messi would be an instant boost to the MLS and its streaming service.

Apple wants to keep existing customers loyal and appeal to new ones. Sports are a great way to consumers’ heart and Apple seems to agree. Before the partnership with MLS, it struck a deal with Major League Baseball to broadcast games on Friday nights. There were reports that claimed Apple already secured rights to NFL games on Sunday nights. All this sports content will enrich the Apple digital ecosystem and help the company make more money. Two possibilities that I can think of:

  • Apple TV+ is natively available on Apple devices through the Apple TV app. Android users can also access the streaming service, but only through browsers. That’s inconvenient. Great sports content on Apple TV+ can give a nudge to on-the-fence Android users to switch to Apple devices. Whatever money the company lost on this front can be made up by higher margin services (Apple Care, Ads, iCloud, payments, etc..) and slightly more expensive devices
  • At $4.99/month, Apple TV+ is one of the cheapest options on the market. With more games in the library now, Apple can make a case to raise the subscription price. Even a $1 increase could lead to millions more in revenue

From my perspective, this is a good partnership for both parties, more so for MLS than Apple, given its current level of popularity globally. But Apple is known for its patience and long-term planning. The company must have a plan in mind and I am curious to learn more about it.

Weekly readings

Weekly reading – 31st July 2021

by MQDuongLeave a Comment on Weekly reading – 31st July 2021

What I wrote last week

I wrote down a few thoughts on Netflix

Business

A great Business Breakdown episode on Petco. If you are not too familiar with the company or the pet supply industry, it’ll be worth your one hour.

Singapore Airlines Doubles Down on the E-Commerce Trend by Carriers. “In November, Singapore Airlines [SIA] CEO Choon Phong Goh described Pelago during an investor call as “a brand new business that’s been set up within SIA” with a goal of “extending the SIA experience from the skies to the ground. While airlines have upsold passengers on extras for years, what’s new is the hands-on approach to sourcing and marketing the content instead of using affiliate deals.”

Beijing orders Tencent to end exclusive music licensing deals in a first for the country. I am very reluctant to invest in Chinese companies precisely because of this.

Finance Chiefs Are Still Trying to Replace Excel With New Tools. Excel is a very powerful tool and we are not completely working without it at least in the next two decades. However, the over-reliance on Excel is damaging in a sense that it prevents companies from upgrading internal tools that can provide better collaboration and data interoperability. I am speaking from experience because that’s one of my personal frustrations at work.

How Gap’s new loyalty program ties together its multiple brands. I visited both Gap and Banana Republic recently. I couldn’t recall a nice experience in terms of finding out information about the rewards program. I suspect it is due to the staggered roll-out of the new rewards program and Omaha, Nebraska isn’t high on the priority list. Nonetheless, consolidating multiple rewards programs, making it simple for customer to understand and offering real values sound like music to my ear. Their offerings are still not best in class. For their sake, I hope they continue to upgrade the rewards benefits.

Reebok got the better of Nike 30 years ago but fell into oblivion. This is the story of how Rebook’s fall from grace happened. The article put a lot of emphasis on Adidas’ mismanagement of Reebook. That happens all the time. Executives promise the sun and moon in M&A, but failures are more common than many care to admit. I don’t know whether without Adidas, Reebok would have still been able to compete with Nike. That’s far from certain. Anyway, another business case study that many can draw lessons from.

Apple makes its M1 Mac case to enterprises. One of my bull cases for Apple is its potential in the enterprise market. Apple’s hardware is well-positioned to really attack this. Up to now, I don’t see a whole lot reported on its market share or Apple’s concrete strategy to go into this space. There is a lot of TAM to tap into here.

A nice profile piece on Bessemer Venture Partners. I like them because they seem very grounded, thoughtful and prudent with other people’s money. There are some firms that, in my opinion, tend to be too optimistic, to the point of being delusional in some deals. Plus, Bessemer publishes their investment memos that I like to read a lot. You can still be wildly successful while being different from the majority.

What I found interesting

Finland ends homelessness and provides shelter for all in need. Some food for thoughts for folks in America: is having the richest companies and individuals along side with grave inequality represented by a lot of homeless people better than a bit less wealth yet greater equality? As a reminder, Finland’s GDP Per Capita is higher than America’s

World’s cheapest energy storage will be an iron-air battery. The startup claimed that their revolutionary battery would cost only 1/10 as much as lithium batteries do. If that’s true, it will be huge.

Beneath Istanbul, Archaeologists Explore An Ancient City’s Byzantine Basements

What growing avocados in Sicily tells us about climate change and the future of food. Simply both fascinating and scary at the same time, if you ask me

Stats that may interest you

In 2020, craft brewers in the U.S produced around 23.1 million barrels, the lowest quantity in the last five years

Apple TV+ has 3% market share

Entertainment, life

The year the Earth changed

by MQDuong1 Comment on The year the Earth changed

If you haven’t watched the documentary “The year the Earth changed” on Apple TV+, do yourself a favor: Subscribe and watch it! I guarantee it’s worth $5 you’ll pay, which still is less expensive than a lot of drinks at Starbucks.

The pandemic forced many of us to go into lockdowns, especially around March and April last year. The unusual pause in human activities led to a once-in-a-lifetime drop in human disturbance in the natural world. That is what this documentary is all about. The crew went to different parts of the world to record what happened to the Earth when humans paused for a change. They pieced together a beautiful story of how much the natural ecosystems benefited from our short-term retreat; which, by extension, is a condemnation of how detrimental our existence is to other species.

One example that I remember very well is how tourists to Africa endanger the lives of cheetah cubs. Cheetahs are the fastest sprinters in the world. They run fast because of their slender build. But it is exactly that build and the tendency to live individually that put them at disadvantage against other hunters such as lions or hyenas. Mother cheetahs are responsible for keeping their cubs safe and feeding them at least once every two or three days. The hunts are not always easy. Mother cheetahs may have to run very far away from their cubs to be able to catch and kill preys. Once a kill is completed, there begins a dilemma. Dragging a prey back to the cubs is a laborious task that may invite unwanted guests in hyenas and lions, against which the lonesome cheetahs stand little chance. Going back to fetch the cubs can protect the weak younglings, but mothers and children may find themselves with empty stomachs because the food will likely be stolen. Hence, mother cheetahs naturally use discreet and distinct voice to call the cubs over. They cannot make too big or too frequently a sound because danger always lurks around and the position of their powerless cubs may be compromised. Naturally, cheetahs adapt to the surrounding conditions to develop their ability to communicate with each other safely. Until humans. As tourists with all the noisy jeeps and talk make it exceedingly challenging for the cubs to listen to the call of their mothers. In the documentary, experts said that the pause in tourists to where cheetahs live increased the livelihood of cheetah cubs.

Listening to the engaging narration of David Attenborough and watching how other species’ lives amazingly became so much better without us is simply jaw-dropping. I couldn’t believe how much a disturbance we humans are. This pandemic is a blessing in disguise. No more theories. No more what-ifs. What happened in nature when we took a break was real. There is now recorded evidence that there is so much that we can and must do to protect our environment and other species.

An excellent documentary. Really thankful to those that put it together.

Weekly readings

Weekly reading – 24th April 2021

by MQDuongLeave a Comment on Weekly reading – 24th April 2021

What I wrote last week

On Apple’s new product: AirTag

Apple TV+, Netflix and the battle between Walmart and Amazon

Business

Google used ‘double-Irish’ to shift $75.4bn in profits out of Ireland. It’s good to know that 2020 was the last year that the “double Irish” loophole could still be exploited. I am curious to see the impact that the phase-out has on US corporations.

WSJ’s short profile of Korea’s “King of Ramen”

AirTag location trackers are smart, capable and very Apple

The Future of Apple Podcasts

Etsy SEO: How to Optimize Your Shop & Listings for Search

How Netflix and social media helped F1 buck a global sports sponsorship slump. F1 is an extraordinary sport and deserves to be the pinnacle of motorsports around the world. If you look below this entry, you’ll see a graphic showing how F1 cars can go into corners at a speed that we travel on a highway. On the straights, F1 cars can hit 360kmh. The technology that goes into building these cars and the skills that go into driving them are the best in the world. Yet, I still feel that F1 isn’t as popular as it should be. “Drive to Survive” and the resilience shown during 2020 really helped the sport become better known

What I find interesting

Typography at U7 station in Berlin

You can pay at Whole Foods Market with your palm now. While it is incredibly cool and convenient, I don’t think I will jump at the chance to use it soon. Amazon isn’t really known for their privacy practices. I am not too willing to give away my biometrics to them yet.

F1 cars can slow down by 144kmh in 1 or 2 seconds and carry over 150kmh into corners. Just think about that for a second. These cars drive into cars at the speed that is often the top you can reach on the highway

Source: F1

Stats that may interest you

Morning Brew has 3 million subscribers. It’s amazing what you can do with great writing skills and consistency

iPhone 12 models accounted for 61% of US iPhone sales in fiscal Q2 2021

Business

Apple TV+ has the highest ratings among streamers. Walmart vs Amazon. Netflix recorded slower growth but saw 2x growth in FCF

by MQDuong1 Comment on Apple TV+ has the highest ratings among streamers. Walmart vs Amazon. Netflix recorded slower growth but saw 2x growth in FCF

Apple TV+ has the highest IMDB ratings for content

According to a new study, content on Apple TV+, Apple’s exclusive streaming service, receives the highest average ratings on IMDB. There are a couple of caveats here: 1/ this is on average. One size cannot fit all in this streaming area. The study reveals that Apple TV+’s content ranks pretty low in some genres. Hence, if you are a connoisseur of Crime or Fantasy content, the streamer may not be your cup of tea. 2/ Apple TV+ has a significantly smaller library than other streams. As a result, the smaller sample may favor Apple’s streamer.

Focusing on content quality is a smart move from Apple. The likes of Disney+ or Netflix already have a lot of titles to offer viewers. It would take Apple either a long time or plenty off money to acquire the rights to stream titles from other producers. Even then, they still likely wouldn’t come out on top because the other heavyweights aren’t standing still to lose their market share. Plus, I don’t imagine Apple TV+ is a profit center for Apple. At $5/month and restricted to Apple devices or Roku, I don’t think Apple TV+ reaches the scale that enables them to raise prices yet. It is an auxiliary service that makes their bundle Apple One or their devices more attractive and sticky to consumers. Services like Apple Care or iCloud, and their hardware are the drivers of margin and profit. It doesn’t make sense for Apple to try to compete with Netflix on the number of titles while diluting investments on quality. The prospect of Apple TV+, with its much smaller subscriber base, beating Netflix on their own game doesn’t seem likely. Plus, focusing more on quality resonates more with the Apple brand.

Walmart vs Amazon

The battle of these two retail titans is exciting to watch. While Walmart has been trying to improve its 3rd party marketplace & ads platform and grow its fintech segment, Amazon has also had some developments on its own:

Walmart has the advantage of low-cost grocery, a category that is near and dear to every shopper, and a network of stores scattered around the country that can act as their fulfillment centers in addition to the actual dedicated ones. On the other hand, Amazon has a more mature online presence, 3rd party marketplace and ads business. It also has 200 million loyal and, in my opinion, profitable customers in their Prime program. For the past months, each company has tried to close the gap to the other. Walmart launched a Walmart+ service, their answer to Prime, while ramping up their marketplace, including the partnership with Shopify, and ads business. Meanwhile, Amazonzz has invested heavily in last-mile delivery and cashierless stores. Even though it’s tough to match the scale of Walmart in groceries, having smaller stores and no headcount expenses will definitely help Amazon drive down the prices.

Which retailer will come out on top remains to be seen. It’s exhilarating, though, to see each iconic firm expand its capabilities and go out of its comfort zone to stay competitive. If I were a business or strategy professor, this would be one of the cases I bring to classes.

Netflix recorded slower growth but saw 2x growth in FCF

The results of Netflix’s first quarter FY2021 were out today. Revenue stood at $7.2 billion, a 18% YoY growth, while operating income was almost $1.9 billion, up 44% YoY. The quarter closed with almost 208 million paid subscriptions, including 4 million in net additions compared to almost 16 million subscribers in net add a year ago. The company attributed the slow growth in subscribers to the pandemic and a weak slate of titles. While Netflix is still confident in the 2nd half of the fiscal year, it does forecast a relatively flat weekly global net adds till the end of the 2nd quarter.

Netflix's flat forecast in net subscriber adds till Q2 FY2021
Source: Netflix

While a slower subscriber growth isn’t good news to Netflix investors, it doesn’t tell the whole story. First of all, they may actually be right that the pandemic and having no hits this quarter had adverse effects. Second of all, Netflix raised their subscription prices a few months ago; which may also be another contributing factor, especially given the intense competition from other streaming services. HBO premiered two blockbusters: Godzilla vs Kong and The Snyder Cut. Disney Plus had their exclusive Wanda Vision and The Falcon & The Winter Soldier, among other titles.

Additionally and very importantly, Netflix increased its free cash flow by 200%, despite a stunted subscriber growth. The company’s free cash flow in Q1 2021 was $692 million, up from $162 from the same quarter a year ago. In the shareholder letter, Netflix was confident that they would be FCF neutral for FY2021 and that they had no plan to raise debt in the near future. More excitingly, they are beginning to buy back shares this quarter. For the Netflix bulls out there, it’s great news. The company spends $20 billion a year on content, yet it is on track to become FCF positive; which almost no other streamer can replicate. That’s the beauty of operating at the scale that Netflix does. Their content investment is a fixed cost. The more paid subscribers there are, the lower the unit cost for each subscriber will be and the higher margin Netflix can extract. However, for other streamers, they have to invest a lot in content to grow their subscriber base. Since their current pool isn’t big enough, they are likely operating in the red with negative cash flow like Netflix used to. The question then becomes: how long can those streamers sustain that loss while trying to match those billions that Netflix pours in content annually?

Yes, seeing their growth stunted this quarter isn’t great, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. The FCF piece that Netflix announced today is, in my opinion, equally important. One quick look at notable news outlets that covered Netflix earnings showed one common theme: Netflix’s growth. I mean, it’s not wrong, but I don’t think their headlines tell the whole story

Coverage of Netflix's Q1 FY2021 earnings without mentioning the cash flow story

Weekly readings

Weekly reading – 23rd January 2021

by MQDuongLeave a Comment on Weekly reading – 23rd January 2021

What I wrote last week

A few simple tips to save money that I have from personal experience

I wrote about the debate on whether social media should censor Trump

Business

Internal deliberations at Twitter over whether they should ban Trump

Checkout.com vs Adyen

If you aren’t too familiar with Fintech, this article is a good place to start

A piece on a16z and its media-savvy founder

Apple TV+ is said to have only 3% of the market in which Netflix still remains the leader

21% of Chime’s revenue per user as of June 2020 came from ATM fees for out-of-network withdrawals

Nintendo – capitalizing on nostalgia

A survey shows that Apple may have a problem with Apple TV+ churn on its hands

A profile of the CEO of Edwards Lifesciences

The Story of a Cap Table: Affirm

Technology

The Myth of The Infrastructure Phase. Such an interesting read on the development of applications and infrastructure

The insider story of PDFs

What I found interesting

A beautiful beautiful letter on living a life worth living

Nikkei Asia has a nice piece on Covid-19 as an opportunity for Vietnam, given how the country has masterfully managed the crisis so far

Why cats love catnips

Axios has an 8-part (till now) series of great reporting on Trump and his post-election madness

Entertainment

Review of The Banker and Defending Jacob

by MQDuongLeave a Comment on Review of The Banker and Defending Jacob

It has been a while since I took time on a weekend to watch some movies and series. I saw The Banker and Defending Jacob today on Apple TV+ and wanted to share a few thoughts

The Banker

The movie is about two black men who wanted to take down the racism and segregation in the real estate and banking industries in America several decades ago. By their entrepreneurship, determination and talent, they managed to own a sizable fortune from their real estate business in California. After the success, Bernard Garrett set his sight on helping black people in his hometown Texas access capital which could, in turn, change their life. To do so, Bernard and his partner Joe Morris and Matt Steiner bought a bank in Texas. Since having colored folks as owners of a bank threatened its existence, Bernard and Joe did their work behind the scene with Matt as the front man. They started to make loans to the black community, true to their mission. The entire operation was put in jeopardy by a jealous and racist minor owner who was the son of the previous owner. The trio were put in a congressional hearing chaired by a Senator with a racist agenda. They were offered immunity deals to say what they were asked to say or they could speak their mind and go to prison. Truth was spoken, immunity deal was granted and a revolutionary law was passed to make banking fairer.

Working at a bank, I have come across laws that require equal access to capital a few times. Everything we do from issuing credit cards to lending out money has to be legal. Even if we want to use an attribute provided by our partner to make targeting more efficient, the attribute has to be investigated by our Compliance to make sure that there is no discrimination. It’s tedious and bureaucratic, but it’s necessary. Watching this movie brought me a new level of appreciation for some of the banking laws.

I enjoyed the movie and the story it told.

Defending Jacob

This is a new series from Apple starring Chris Evans. It’s about a Deputy Attorney District in a county in Massachusetts named Andrew Barber. One day, a high school student who went to the same school as his son was found dead in a park two blocks from their home. The tight-knit community was on edge. Andrew was charged with leading the investigation. The dead student was stabbed to death. Later, the investigation uncovered that his son bought a knife two weeks prior to the murder and was seen bullied by the victim. Andrew was taken off the case and his family’s world was turned upside down.

Only three episodes of the series have been aired so far, but they have been pretty nice. The drama is getting more exciting by each episode. The plot was set up to reveal more explosive twists later. I enjoyed watching the actors playing the Barbers bring out the struggle that their family had to go through. I think Chris did a good job. It’s refreshing to see him outside of his iconic role as Captain America. I suspect his son was dead, but don’t mind waiting for a few episode to find out.

Disclaimer: I own Apple stocks in my portfolio

Business

Apple’s multi-sided game

by MQDuongLeave a Comment on Apple’s multi-sided game

There were quite some surprises unveiled at Apple Event today:

  • Apple Arcade: $4.99/month for a whole family
  • Apple TV+: $4.99/month for a whole family and free if you buy a new iPhone, iPad, Apple TV or Mac
  • Price cuts for devices such as iPhone and Apple Watch Series 3

For a company notorious for ripping off consumers, a notoriety that they earn to a large extent, undercutting competitors and lowering prices for their high-end products are unusual. However, it may make sense in the game that Apple is playing.

Formerly relying on hardware, especially iPhones, for their revenue, Apple has been transitioning to be more of a service company. They have been pushing hard on the service part, including but not limited to Apple Pay, iCloud, Apple Card, Apple News+, Apple Arcade, Apple Care. However, to sell these services, they first need to find a way to put hardware into humans’ hands.

In return, hardware would be just boring pieces of metal without great user experience that comes from the operating system and ecosystem, including apps and services. There is no shortage of alternatives to expensive products that Apple offers. To really convince a consumer to dole out a significant amount, they need to present compelling reasons. Hence, the gradual updates to operating systems and a slew of services.

But Apple can’t do everything alone. They need partners. They need content partners such as publishers, game companies and producers as well as strategic partners like Goldman Sachs. These partners, I guess, are interested in the reach that Apple has through its installed base. By working with Apple, they hope to leverage the media coverage that Apple enjoys and get to many customers as quickly as possible.

By lowering entry prices for Arcade and offering TV+ on a very attractive term, I suspect that Apple wants to expand the subscriber base quickly from the existing user pool. The bigger the subscriber base, the more leverage Apple will have with content and strategic partners, whose future creations in turn will increase the appeal of Apple’s services.

By lowering hardware’s prices, there may as well be other reasons and I am so speculating here, Apple wants to lure non-Apple users and expand its user pool. It’s a two-pronged approach to grow the ecosystem.

It’s truly remarkable to me how a company this size can keep adapting to the changing landscape of the business environments to be competitive in a highly competitive industry. Some folks say Apple isn’t taking risks. But any strategic mistake by omission or commission may result in at least two years behind competitors and billions in market valuation. Others complain that the Cupertino-based company is no longer innovating. It’s tricky to tell if it’s completely true or false. But it’s worth remembering that Wearables & Accessories, including Watch and Airpods, generated $5.5 billion in revenue in 90 days last quarter while the main products still remain sticky to consumers.

As a student of business, I admire the company. No company is flawless, but it’s amazing what Apple has been able to do to navigate through competition and constantly changing business environments.

Disclaimer: I do own Apple stocks in my humbly small portfolio.