Weekly reading – 14th May 2022

What I wrote last week

Uber Q1 FY2022 Results

Book Review – After Steve: How Apple Became A Trillion-Dollar Company And Lost Its Soul

Business

Newest trend in delivery apps: move from cars to e-bikes. Micromobility is great for short-distance deliveries in a busy city like San Francisco. This is how Grab Food, Shopee Food and others manage deliveries in Ho Chi Minh City. Consumers order food within 3-4 kms most of the time. Traffic jam is a feature of the city. If couriers used cars for deliveries, there wouldn’t be any food delivery business! eBikes are also environmentally friendly. I hope to see more innovation and governmental subsidies in this space

John Gruber on the European Commission’s calling Apple Pay an illegal monopoly. I like John’s takes on Apple-related things. He is experienced and more importantly nuanced and fair. “This passage, as well as much of the rest of the E.C.’s “statement of objections”, seeks to dismiss the hard work Apple has done to make Apple Pay successful. Yes, NFC is an industry standard, and Apple Pay is, in part, built on top of that. But before Apple Pay, NFC was hardly used, even though Android had supported it since 2011. When Apple Pay launched in late 2014, its support for the existing NFC infrastructure was so good, it worked with many credit card terminals that had no explicit support for “Apple Pay” specifically. Apple Pay was so easy to use people were using it at retailers who weren’t even Apple Pay partners. That’s not a credit to NFC, which had been in place for years. That’s a credit to Apple. I honestly don’t understand where the E.C. sees anticompetitive behavior with Apple Pay. What I see is market share dominance stemming from the hard work of designing better integration into iOS and iPhones and educating users about the feature. How else could the iPhone’s share of NFC payments so far exceed the iPhone’s share of mobile phone sales? I’m not saying Samsung and Google suck at this, per se, but Jennifer Bailey’s team at Apple is really good, and perhaps just as importantly, really diligent about this sort of thing.”

Congress is ‘moving too slowly’ on semiconductor supply crunch, Commerce Secretary says. The dysfunction and ineffectiveness of Congress, especially in this matter, will cost America a lot both in the short and long term.

Buy Now, Pain Later? An interesting read on BNPL and specifically Affirm

Don’t forget Microsoft. Business schools around the world should teach students about Microsoft and its revival by Satya Nadella.

Business Travel Rebounds as Execs Choose (Real) Face Time Over Zoom. I, for one, am curious about whether business travel will come back to the pre-pandemic levels and how it will come back. During the pandemic, articles were written on how business travel would never be the same. Anecdotally, my colleagues at work traveled to Omaha, Nebraska for monthly meetings and quarterly department reviews as if nothing had happened in the past two years. China remains a question mark. Because they remain persistent on the zero-Covid strategy, they are not a viable destination at the moment. And I hope that the prolonged fight with Covid does not give other variants a chance to spring up. I think we have enough of a pandemic for, let’s say, the next few decades.

Inside the Collapse of CNN+, the News Channel’s ‘Apollo Mission’. The launch of CNN+ seems rushed and more like a political move by some executives than a savvy business initiative

How Gillette Embraced the Beard to Win Over Scruffy Millennials. Gillette went from demonizing beards to embracing them. After years of fruitless resistance and declining sales, they finally realized that their bread and butter product is no longer what men want. More than half of the men in the world don beard, including two-thirds of millennial men. Sensing that the tide they were going against was too strong, Gillette launched new beard-friendly products rolled into a line named King C. Gillette. A deviation from what the company is always known for, but a good strategic shift, I think.

Other stuff I found interesting

Could solar power solve Puerto Rico’s energy nightmare? I can’t imagine living in this day and age without electricity. Especially when that happens in a U.S territory.

Moon soil used to grow plants for first time in breakthrough test. This discovery inspires a lot of questions, possibilities and dreams

Cat Litter Could Be Antidote for Climate Change. I don’t know about you, but I don’t have “cat litter could absorb methane before it goes up in the air” in my 2022 bingo card. But it’s a nice surprise and discovery.

Stats

NYC subway ridership as of March 2022 is 60% of the pre-pandemic levels

Germany has 9% of all bitcoin nodes

“In 2021, U.S. podcast advertising revenues rose to $1.4 billion”

Only 50% of the time when a PayPayer user goes to a site that has PayPal does that user use PayPal

Weekly reading – 29th January 2022

What I wrote last week

Book review: A shot to save the world

Microsoft through charts

Business

MPC Letter Highlights Amazon Action on Visa Credit Cards in UK. The market power of Visa is evidenced by a number of big name retailers unable to ditch them completely. In the U.S, you can use Visa at Costco stores, but you can’t Mastercard. “Walmart, for example, announced in 2016 that it would no longer accept Visa credit cards at its stores in Canada, but began taking them again seven months later. In 2018, Kroger stopped accepting Visa credit cards at about 20 of its Food Co. locations in California and later expanded the ban to 142 supermarkets and 108 gas stations in its Smith’s Good and Drug Store chain across seven states but resumed accepting the cards the following year.”

How France’s Largest Semiconductor Company Got Stolen in Plain Sight. A great example of a power grab from a Board against its own CEO.

Casualties of Your Own Success. “The second is size is associated with success, success is associated with hubris, and hubris is the beginning of the end of success. Some of the most enduring animals aren’t apex predators, but they’re very good at evasion, camouflage, and armor. They’re paranoid. I always come back to the time Charlie Rose asked Michael Moritz how Sequoia Capital has thrived for three decades, and he said, “We’ve always been afraid of going out of business.” Paranoia in the face of success is extremely hard but in hindsight it’s the closest thing to a secret weapon that exists.

Amazon’s Banned China Sellers Turn to Walmart’s Marketplace. Adding merchants is cool, but Walmart should be very careful about losing customer trust because of goods or services of questionable quality.

Battery Swapping for EVs Is Big in China. Here’s How It Works. I do think that battery swapping can have the potential to take EVs to another level, but there are some key questions that need answering. The high cost to build swapping stations, how many batteries should be at a station, how many stations, how we can make sure that drivers can only retrieve fully charged batteries…

Utah’s ‘Steve Jobs of the Skies’ is ready to do it again. An inspiring story of a legend in the airline industry

Interchange is going toward 0.. So what? A thought-provoking post by Tom on the prospect that interchange fees will drop significantly in the US and the risks that issuers have to face. I don’t know when the interchange fees will drop in the US, to be honest. If we had just Democrats in Congress, it would happen in the next 4-5 years. But because we have GOP lawmakers who are easily persuaded by lobbyists, I can’t imagine the change would happen soon. Issuers love the card business because it’s profitable. Users only use credit cards because of the rewards and what pays for those rewards? Part of it is interchange. Nonetheless, Tom’s blog post is very interesting.

Stuff I found interesting

US unveils changes to attract foreign science, tech students. The Biden administration and its successors would be wise to continue this talent-friendly policy and take it further. The competitiveness of a country is forever based on the human capital that it has and is even more so today. Immigrants like to come to the US, but for the past few years, opted for other countries because of the anti-immigrant rhetoric from Trump. Now, it’s Biden’s responsibility to clean up the image and make America the destination for talented immigrants again.

A Journey Along Afghanistan’s Main Highway Leads Through a Country in Transition. I had mixed feelings reading this piece. First of all, I was reminded how lucky I was to live a normal and healthy life in America. Folks in some areas of the world like Afghanistan live in fear and poverty. The image of a mother holding two children and being scared of losing her three-year-old daughter is haunting. Second, it’s tragic how a group of people want to impose their extreme view of a religion on others and inflict immeasurable pain in the process. Third, what did the last 20 years and billions of dollars gain the U.S and the people of Afghanistan? While they may be suppressed under Taliban, some are relieved that the war is temporarily over. That says a lot about what the US and its allies did. Lastly, are the continued sanctions in the best interest of the Afghan people? Yes, the Taliban needs coercing to a negotiation table, but what about hurting the innocent people as collateral damage?

The Nanotechnology Revolution Is Here—We Just Haven’t Noticed Yet. “For decades, computer scientists and physicists speculated that, any minute now, nanotechnology was going to completely reshape our lives, unleashing a wave of humanity-saving inventions. Things haven’t unfolded as they predicted but, quietly, the nanotech revolution is under way. Among the routine items that have benefited from nanotechnology: air bags, cellphones, radar, inkjet printers, home projectors, and 5G and other fast wireless technology. Just around the bend, nanotechnology could enable ultra-tiny cameras, as well as a dizzying array of other kinds of sensors, able to detect everything from air pollution and black ice to hacking attempts and skin cancer. Unlocking your phone with your face is just the beginning, says Metalenz CEO Robert Devlin. Metalenses also have abilities that can be difficult to reproduce with conventional lenses. For example, because they facilitate the detection of polarized light, they can “see” things conventional lenses can’t. That could include detecting levels of light pollution, allowing the cameras on automobile safety and self-driving systems to detect black ice, and giving our phone cameras the ability to detect skin cancer.

Here’s how Ohio won a bid by Intel to build the world’s largest chip factory. I am intrigued to see how this long-term plan will fare in the next few years. From the US perspective, it is important to have a domestic fab that can rival TSMC. Whether Intel can make it work as it is so far behind the Taiwanese firm is another matter. But like they always say, you miss all the shots you don’t take. At least Intel is taking its shot here.

Google Topics API – The new Privacy Sandbox proposal from Google. At first glance, it looks like an improvement over FLoC to me, but we’ll see how the technology really works in real life and what the feedback from the community will be.

Don’t shine the turd. “If something is shit, don’t hide it. Because eventually, I’ll smell it.” It’s actually truly great advice.

Stats

YouTube Shorts has 5 trillion all-time views. That’s 5 trillion and it’s not a typo

Online channels only made up 10% of U.S grocery sales in 2021. Among all stats related to digital grocery, this seems right to me the most

45 million Americans used BNPL in 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Microsoft through charts

On Tuesday, Microsoft was the first big tech giant to report financial performance and they didn’t disappoint. They surpassed the market estimates on both top and bottom lines, as well as provided strong guidance. You can read an overview of the earnings call here. In this post, I’ll look at Microsoft the business through some charts that I hope will be helpful and informative to you.

Microsoft’s annualized revenue is now $185 billion at 20% growth!

Microsoft revenue

It’s highly profitable at 43% operating margin. Its annualized operating income stands at $80 billion

Microsoft's operating income and margin

All three primary business segments have 2-digit YoY revenue growth

Microsoft's main businesses growth

Azure and Cloud attract a lot of attention, but it’s Office and other productivity products that top operating margin

Microsoft's main businesses margin

Cloud is on fire. LinkedIn & Search surpassed the $10 billion mark in annualized revenue. Gaming, the 4th largest business, now has a $20 billion run rate

Microsoft's business lines revenue

Microsoft 365 has 57 million active users though growth is slowing due to the law of big numbers

Microsoft 365 subscriber

Azure’s growth is declining due to its size

Azure YoY revenue growth

LinkedIn quietly increases its active user base every quarter. Enterprise Mobility, Microsoft’s security package, also sees consistent growth

LinkedIn active users and Enterprise Mobility seats

Microsoft Teams sees an increasing adoption among corporations

Microsoft Teams sees an increasing adoption among corporations

Disclaimer: I own Microsoft stocks in my personal portfolio

Weekly reading – 6th February 2021

What I wrote last week

My summary of Microsoft’s latest earnings, a giant with growth momentum

My estimate on Azure revenue

Bezos is stepping down (not really a shock), but Amazon is in a great shape

Business

I don’t always agree with all Ben’s takes, but his presentation here is pretty well-done

The NYTimes looked at the current infrastructure for electric vehicles which are becoming a force in the near future

It seems that Amazon’s struggles with its Game Studio come from the top

Apple in 2020: The Six Colors report card

A profile on Kaishou

The Facebook Oversight Board’s First Decisions: Ambitious, and Perhaps Impractical. A pretty good writeup on the first 5 decisions by the FOB. I think it’s great that the FOB came out swinging to prove at least up to now it’s not for show and it’s for business. It’s also great that it doesn’t put too much weight on the operationability of its decisions. That way, the decisions seem more dialogic and as a guide instead of being contaminated by expenses and profits.

Forbes’ writeup on Chegg, a subscription company that lets you solve your homework with the help of an army of experts from India. Every business needs to make money. That I can understand. But if somebody comes out and says that it encourages cheating, they also have a point.

A story on the implosion of Ample Hills, which was once Brooklyn’s hottest ice cream brand

The latest investment letter from RGA

What I found interesting

A professional photographer took incredible photos of the glaciers in Alaska, using iPhone 12 Pro Max

Have a look at an interesting mushroom farm in Vietnam

The ridiculous lack of understanding on Section 320 from lawmakers doesn’t seem limited to Republicans because Democrats have it too

An interesting piece on Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX

Interesting stats

Another horrifying story about the US healthcare. I can’t believe what I read. A new parent had to deal with their newly born child being sick and the insurance company relied on red tape and the flaws of the system to exploit their customers. Imagine the horror of receiving a $270,000 bill.

US Distilleries made $31 billion in revenue in 2020, due to Covid-19. Premium liquor rose in popularity among consumers

In 2020, nearly 1 million Gen-Zers opened a trading account at Apex Clearing, most likely through a broker, with the average age of 19.

App downloads in January 2021 from Bank of America

Someone compiled data on customers for Fintech firms

Zelle processed more than $300 billion in 2020

My estimate of Azure revenue. Its run-rate is not $28 or 29 billion yet!

Among the three biggest public cloud vendors, only Amazon provides revenue and operating income for AWS while Microsoft and Google (Alphabet) have refrained from doing the same. Alphabet (Google) will pull the curtain a little bit on the state of GCP in their imminent earnings call, but Microsoft hasn’t, even in the latest call last week. While it’s highly challenging to put a precise figure on the revenue from Azure without official disclosures, I think that by digging into their financial documents, we can have a pretty good idea of what it may be and as importantly, what it canNOT be.

If you read Microsoft’s financial filings, it can give you a headache trying to work out what all the buckets and segments mean and what goes into where. First, you can look at the business from a 4000-foot perspective into Products and Services. On a deeper level, there are three big segments: 1/ Productivity and Business Processes, 2/ Intelligent Cloud and 3/ More Personal Computing. Under each segment, there are different metrics which combine different products and services whose financial figures aren’t reported. According to Microsoft’s disclosures, Azure revenue falls into the bucket called “Server Products and Cloud Services”, as you can see in the screenshot below. Since Microsoft refuses to offer specific numbers on Azure, what we can do is to estimate it through Server Products and Cloud Services, whose numbers Microsoft does reveal.

Definition of Microsoft's metrics, including Azure
Figure 1 – The definition of Microsoft’s metrics. Source: Microsoft

Here is what Microsoft did say on Server Products and Cloud Services (SPCS) on their latest 10Q:

Server products and cloud services revenue increased $2.6 billion or 26%, driven by Azure. Azure revenue grew 50%, due to growth in our consumption-based services. Server products revenue increased 4%, driven by hybrid and premium solutions, offset in part by continued transactional weakness, on a strong prior year comparable that benefited from demand related to Windows Server 2008 end of support.

Source: Microsoft

Based on the disclosure and the composition of SPCS, we can be sure that Azure’s YoY revenue growth in the last quarter cannot be bigger than $2.6 billion. This insight can help us put a maximum limit on what Azure cannot exceed. Let’s assume that all the growth in SPCS is down to Azure and all the other products and services didn’t grow at all, meaning that Azure grew by $2.6 billion in Q2 FY2021. Because Microsoft said that Azure grew by 50%, that means its revenue in Q2 FY 2020 would have been $5.2 billion. As a result, Q2 FY2021 revenue would be $7.8 billion. Using the same logic, let’s go back to a few quarters and see what it would look like.

 1Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q2021
SPCS YoY Revenue Increase $           1,562  $           1,492  $           1,710  $           1,729  $           2,134  $           2,328  $           2,437  $           1,858  $           2,003  $           2,610 
Azure Revenue Growth (100% of SPCS growth) $           1,562  $           1,492  $           1,710  $           1,729  $           2,134  $           2,328  $           2,437  $           1,858  $           2,003  $           2,610 
Azure Revenue YoY  Growth76%76%73%64%59%62%59%47%48%50%
Revenue Base $           3,617  $           3,755  $           4,131  $           3,953  $           4,173  $           5,220     
Quarterly Revenue $           3,617  $           3,755  $           4,131  $           3,953  $           4,173  $           5,220  $           6,568  $           5,811  $           6,176  $           7,830 
4-quarter revenue (annual run rate)    $        15,455  $        16,011  $        17,477  $        19,914  $        21,772  $        23,775  $        26,385 
Figure 2 – The scenario in which Azure was responsible for all Server Products and Cloud Services’ revenue growth

The first row is the revenue growth in absolute numbers every quarter of SPCS that Microsoft revealed. In this line of logic, we assume that is also the growth of Azure. Microsoft also revealed the YoY growth rate of Azure on the 3rd row. Based on the absolute numbers that we assume and the YoY growth rate, we can calculate the revenue base. For instance, the revenue base in Q2 FY2020 of $5.2 billion would be equal to $2.6 billion divided by 50% and the revenue base in Q1 FY2020 would be equal to $2 billion divided by 48%. To arrive at the estimated quarterly revenue of the last four quarter, we add the revenue base and the increase that we assumed accordingly. For instance, the $6.6 billion in Q32020 would be the sum of $4.1 billion in Q3 FY2019 and the $2.4 billion increase. Based on that logic, the absolute maximum revenue Azure could achieve in Q2 FY2021 would be $7.8 billion. If we do a quick calculation of 4-quarter revenue or what they call run-rate, the absolute maximum Azure could generate in 4 quarters would be $26.4 billion.

But since this scenario is impossible as the other components under SPCS do generate revenue growth every quarter, Azure’s run rate as of Q2 FY2021 has to be less than $26.4 billion. What would it look like if Azure’s growth was responsible for 95% of SPCS’ growth every quarter?

 1Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q2021
SPCS YoY Revenue Increase $           1,562  $           1,492  $           1,710  $           1,729  $           2,134  $           2,328  $           2,437  $           1,858  $           2,003  $           2,610 
Azure Revenue Growth (if 95% of SPCS growth) $           1,484  $           1,417  $           1,625  $           1,643  $           2,027  $           2,212  $           2,315  $           1,765  $           1,903  $           2,480 
Azure Revenue YoY  Growth76%76%73%64%59%62%59%47%48%50%
Revenue Base $           3,436  $           3,567  $           3,924  $           3,756  $           3,964  $           4,959     
Quarterly Revenue $           3,436  $           3,567  $           3,924  $           3,756  $           3,964  $           4,959  $           6,239  $           5,521  $           5,867  $           7,439 
4-quarter revenue (annual run rate)    $        14,683  $        15,211  $        16,603  $        18,918  $        20,683  $        22,586  $        25,065 
Figure 3 – The scenario in which Azure was responsible for 95% of Server Products and Cloud Services’ revenue growth

Based on this assumption, the annual run-rate of Azure as of Q2 FY2021 would be $25 billion and the growth of SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related CALs; and GitHub combined would be around $130 million. Lacking visibility into these products and services, I cannot say if that increase in revenue for a quarter is reasonable. What about if Azure was responsible for 90% of SPCS’ revenue growth every quarter?

 1Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q2021
SPCS YoY Revenue Increase $           1,562  $           1,492  $           1,710  $           1,729  $           2,134  $           2,328  $           2,437  $           1,858  $           2,003  $           2,610 
Azure Revenue Growth (if 90% of SPCS growth) $           1,406  $           1,343  $           1,539  $           1,556  $           1,921  $           2,095  $           2,193  $           1,672  $           1,803  $           2,349 
Azure Revenue YoY  Growth76%76%73%64%59%62%59%47%48%50%
Revenue Base $           3,255  $           3,379  $           3,717  $           3,558  $           3,756  $           4,698     
Quarterly Revenue $           3,255  $           3,379  $           3,717  $           3,558  $           3,756  $           4,698  $           5,911  $           5,230  $           5,558  $           7,047 
4-quarter revenue (annual run rate)    $        13,910  $        14,410  $        15,729  $        17,922  $        19,594  $        21,397  $        23,746 
Figure 4 – The scenario in which Azure was responsible for 90% Server Products and Cloud Services’ revenue growth

Under this scenario, Azure’s run rate would be $23.7 billion and all the other products under SPCS would contribute around $260 million in revenue growth in the last quarter. For the same reason stated above, I am unable to say if the latter figure is correct, but you can use the same rationale and play around with assumptions to get an estimate of how big Azure can be.

In the Q1 FY2021 earnings call, an analyst commented that Azure revenue made up 17% of Microsoft’s total revenue; which the Executives didn’t comment on:

Figure 5 – A comment from an analyst on Azure from the Q1 FY2021 Earnings Call. Source: Fool.com

If that estimate is true, this will be Azure’s quarterly revenue

 1Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q2021
Total Revenue $        29,084  $        32,471  $        30,571  $        33,717  $        33,055  $        36,906  $        35,021  $        38,033  $        37,153  $        43,076 
Azure Revenue (17% of total revenue) $           4,653  $           5,195  $           4,891  $           5,395  $           5,289  $           5,905  $           5,603  $           6,085  $           5,944  $           6,892 
Figure 6 – What 17% of Microsoft’s total revenue looks like

The number in Q1 FY2021 ($5.9 billion) isn’t so far off what we had in the 95% scenario above. While nobody, except the people at Microsoft, can say for sure what Azure revenue is, I think it’s fairly likely that its run rate is about $25 billion as of Q2 FY2021.

Disclaimer: I own Microsoft stocks in my portfolio.

Amazon’s bully tactics and my thoughts on antitrust issues

WSJ ran a piece analyzing Amazon’s tactics in defeating businesses that were first partners, but became rivals standing in the way of Amazon’s private labels. It got me to think about when behavior from big and established companies became unlawful and unacceptable and when the behavior just stemmed from the drive to be more competitive. To me, there are three different aspects to this issue: the launch of competitive products or services against smaller businesses, the price undercut and the downright bullying. Let’s look at them one by one

Big techs’ launch of services and products against smaller businesses

Critics of big techs often accuse them of antitrust behavior when the companies launch a feature similar to what other smaller businesses offer. As these big tech firms usually own the customer relationship and hence important distribution, they have a clear advantage in promoting and selling the feature than smaller competitors do with their main products. To be clear, I am NOT against giants taking advantage of the data generated from their popular platforms for several reasons:

  • If a company wants to launch something new that is a response to a market threat and can potentially benefit the end users, why should it not be allowed to?
  • Yes, platforms like Amazon or Apple have a huge advantage at their disposal: data on consumer behavior. But how is that different from getting marketing intelligence from somewhere else? The difference here is that these platforms own the data, but first they have to WORK to build these platforms and maintain them
  • Retailers have their own private labels all the time. It’s hardly a surprise that they observe brands that rent spaces on their premises and subsequently launch their own labels
  • Copying others is what almost every business does to some degree

For these reasons, I don’t think the launch of services like Apple Music itself is an antitrust behavior by Apple. Clearly, the advantages over Spotify are 1/ the app is pre-loaded and 2/ Apple owns the operating systems and customer relationship. Plus, it’s not like consumers can’t download Spotify on Apple’s devices. There is a bit more friction involved compared to the effortless experience with Apple Music, but that’s the price you have to pay for when relying on others. I wrote about Slack’s lawsuit against Microsoft before. In that piece, I argued that Microsoft, in all their Microsoft365 offerings, has at least one option that doesn’t bundle Teams. Moreover, as in the case of Apple against Spotify, companies are free to add Slack to their stack besides Office365. Surely, Slack has a lot more convincing to do as it has to persuade companies that the additional expense each month is worth the extra utility from Slack compared to Teams. Nonetheless, that’s the nature of the competition and I do think Microsoft is within its rights to bundle Teams the way it does.

In this sense, if Amazon wants to introduce a private label in a certain category, based on their data, they are within their rights. Plus, consumers have one more option at their disposal. I personally don’t see a problem with that. If I were Jeff Bezos, I would do the same and you would be hard-pressed to say you’d do it differently.

Zappos, the online shoe marketplace, and its late CEO Tony Hsieh, successfully outmaneuvered Amazon and beat them into submission in the form of an acquisition that allowed Tony and his company a degree of autonomy from the parent company. In the book “The Innovation Stack“, the founder of Square talked about the pressure from Amazon in Square’s early days. Although much smaller than the Seattle-based company, Square managed to beat Amazon with their superior products and services. Why am I mentioning these examples? They serve as a reminder that small businesses can defeat much bigger resource-rich competitors.

Predatory Pricing

From the WSJ piece:

In a June 2010 email chain that included Mr. Bezos, a senior executive laid out tactics, saying “We have already initiated a more aggressive ‘plan to win’ against diapers.com in the diaper/baby space,” a plan that included doubling Amazon’s discounts on diapers and baby wipes to 30% off, and a free Prime program for new moms.

When Amazon cut diaper prices by 30%, Quidsi executives were shocked and ran an analysis that determined Amazon was losing $7 for every box of diapers, former Quidsi board members said. Senior Quidsi executives were even more surprised when, the day of the price cuts, Jeff Blackburn, a top lieutenant to Mr. Bezos, approached a Quidsi board member saying the company should sell itself to Amazon, said a person familiar with the matter. At that point, Quidsi wasn’t for sale and had big growth plans.

Quidsi started to unravel after Amazon’s price cuts, said Leonard Lodish, a Quidsi board member at the time, missing its internal monthly projections for the first time since 2005. The company felt it had no choice but to sell itself because it couldn’t compete with what Amazon was doing and survive. Amazon bought Quidsi in 2010 for about $500 million. It shut down Diapers.com in 2017, saying it was unprofitable.

“What Amazon did was against the law. They were selling diapers for below cost,” said Mr. Lodish. “But what were we going to do? Sue Amazon for antitrust? It would take years and tens of millions of dollars and we’d be bankrupt by then.”

Source: WSJ

When it comes to predatory pricing, it’s a bit more complicated. First of all, to many consumers, a giant like Amazon bullying a smaller rival like Diapers.com looks very distasteful, but to the FTC, it may not necessarily be illegal. Here is what the FTC currently says about predatory pricing

Source: FTC

Pricing below your competitors isn’t unique. What could get Amazon into legal trouble is whether it is establishing a monopoly in, as in this case, the diapers market and harming the consumers by raising the prices after eliminating competitors. Apparently, that hasn’t been the case. Last time I checked, there are more than one diaper brand on Amazon’s website and on the market in general. Plus, pricing is just one part of the value propositions a company can offer to consumers. Most car companies in the world will have a lower price than Ferrari, but the Italian company is still one of the most luxurious brands in the world and its customers still crave for its cars every year. It’s true that in some categories, prices are the dominant feature, but it’s NOT the only reason why consumers make the purchase decision.

Furthermore, one can argue that Apple Music, because it is owned by Apple, isn’t subject to the 15%/30% commission that 3rd-party app like Spotify is. Said another way, Spotify has to raise its prices to maintain its margin and as a result, make itself less competitive than Apple Music. That may be true, but once again, because there are alternatives to Apple Music on Apple devices such as YouTube, Amazon, SoundCloud and Spotify itself and because Apple Music isn’t the cheapest of all, in the eyes of the FTC, it is not illegal.

Where it gets unacceptable

Again, from the WSJ article:

At its height about a decade ago, Pirate Trading LLC was selling more than $3.5 million a year of its Ravelli-brand camera tripods—one of its bestselling products—on Amazon, said owner Dalen Thomas.

In 2011, Amazon began launching its own versions of six of Pirate Trading’s top-selling tripods under its AmazonBasics label, he said. Mr. Thomas ordered one of the Amazon tripods and found it had the same components and shared Pirate Trading’s design. For its AmazonBasics products, Amazon used the same manufacturer that Pirate Trading had used.

Amazon priced one of its clone tripods below what Mr. Thomas paid his manufacturer to have Pirate Trading’s version made, he said. He determined it would be cheaper to buy Amazon’s versions, repackage and resell them than to buy and sell them on the terms he had been getting; he decided not to do that.

Amazon suspended Pirate Trading camera tripod models that competed with the AmazonBasics versions repeatedly, Mr. Thomas said, alleging his tripods had authenticity issues. Amazon rarely suspended the tripod models that didn’t compete with AmazonBasics versions, he said. In 2015, Amazon fully suspended all Ravelli products, he said, and his company’s tripod business is now a fraction of the size it was. Mr. Thomas said he found being a seller on Amazon too risky and has largely pivoted to real-estate investing.

Several Amazon sellers said they have received notifications from Amazon, which has been battling fraud and fake goods on its platform, that say their products are used or counterfeit. Amazon suspends their selling accounts until they can prove that the products are legitimate, which can cause big sellers to lose tens of thousands of dollars each day, they said.

To turn their accounts back on, Amazon often requests that the sellers provide details on who manufactures their product along with invoices from the manufacturer so that Amazon can verify authenticity. Several sellers told the Journal they provided those details to Amazon to get their accounts reinstated, only for Amazon to introduce its own version of their products using the same manufacturer.

Source: WSJ

This is an example of under-handed and antitrust behavior that I think should be outlawed and punished. Here, Amazon used its authority and position to extract crucial information from other sellers and in turn, took advantage of the information to launch competing products. It’s one thing for Amazon to find out where sellers source their products on their own. It’s another for Amazon to leverage its position to do so. Worse, it disrupted Pirate Trading’s business repeatedly for unclear reasons and allegedly benefited its competing private label. This type of bullying behavior should be condemned and regulated.

In that sense, I don’t think it will be right for the likes of Apple to do the following to 3rd-party apps:

  • Make it hard for them to publish updates and features
  • Prevent them from being on the App Store without just cause
  • Extract proprietary information and use it against the 3rd-party apps

In short, it’s complicated and nuanced to determine whether a behavior from an established form should be punished and outlawed or whether it’s just the nature of business. My observation is that people usually jump into accusations and judgements too quickly, as well as collapse multiple issues into one. Regulations regarding antitrust in the future need to balance between letting companies, regardless of size, compete out of merits and making sure that bullying behavior is punished accordingly. That’s no small feat. That’s hard as you can by now imagine. But our society only advances when we make difficult accomplishments, doesn’t it?

Disclaimer: I own Apple, Microsoft, Spotify and Amazon stocks in my portfolio

Weekly reading – 12th December 2020

What I wrote last week

How much money could you save from drinking coffee at home?

Business

The economics of the $2B+ Christmas tree industry

Bloomberg’s profile on OnlyFans, a potential major social media on the horizon

Uber sold its autonomous vehicle arm to Aurora. This move isn’t a surprise given that Uber has been trying to offload cash-intensive and loss-making businesses in order to focus on the ones that do make money. Though there is a big write-down from $7.5 billion to $4 billion, investors may find this deal good news

CNBC has a good article on AT&T, HBO and their effort to compete with Netflix and other streamers

Inside Google’s deal with French Media

Many Google employees came out with their version of the story involved Timnit Gebru, contradicting what the company publicly said

WSJ’s profile on a few men that helped build Microsoft’s gaming business today

Online grocery slowed down in the last few months compared to the height in the summer. The basket size continued to be relatively big, compared to the same period last year and pre-Covid months.

https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/stuff/contentmgr/files/1/495948404a0913f7ced51b6524a17539/files/bmc_scorecard_nov_2020_sm.png
Source: Brickmeetsclick

Clover, which belongs to Fiserv and sells hardware & software payment solutions to small businesses, a competitor of Square, seems to have a higher GPV as well as a higher percentage of sellers with $125k in annual GPV. As Clover has more than 90% of its sellers above the $125,000 GPV threshold, the figure is far smaller for Square.

Source: Fiserv

Technology

John Gruber’s review of Apple’s latest product: AirPods Max

What I found interesting

A story on a small coffee business in Vietnam that prioritizes sustainability

Benefits of walking

The US Department of Health and Human Services published a presentation on how unhealthy Americans’ diet is. The information is informative and use, but the presentation is hilariously terrible.

The old Americans get, the more they spend time alone

Weekly readings – 29th August 2020

What I wrote

A quick thought on Uber/Lyft potentially leaving California and Apple’s fight with Epic

I applauded the NBA for taking a stand

My breakdown of Snowflake’s S-1

I also wrote about Wix, a popular website creation tool, with more than 180 million users

Business

A 3-part series on Microsoft’s acquisition of Forethought, the company that invented PowerPoint

A short story on Goodreads

In its lawsuit against the Trump Administration, TikTok reported 50 million daily active users in the US, 20.3 billion views on posts related to #BlackLivesMatter

This should sound ominous for Amazon’s rivals and the likes of UPS

Faster Than Fast: SMB Retailers Move to Shopify

A study on Gen Z’s attitude towards brands in 2020

Apple Pay can be a multi-billion dollar business

A great Twitter thread on the bull case fo Fiserv

How Roku Built Itself Into a Major Gatekeeper in Premium Streaming

A piece on Adobe’s bull case

In Defense of the IPO, and How to Improve It

Technology

India, Israel and Kyrgyzstan have the cheapest plan for every GB of mobile data in the world

A primer on Apple’s new security and privacy features in the upcoming iOS

Amazon Halo

Stuff that I found interesting

The inside story fo the $8 million heist from the Carnegie Library

New Swing State Georgia Could Decide Control of the Senate

How cute is this?

Weekly readings – 25th July 2020

What I wrote

Slack filed an antitrust complaint against Microsoft over Teams to the EU. On the surface, I don’t think Slack is going to win the case, if the EU decides to formally launch an investigation. How Microsoft structures their Microsoft 365 offers does give customers a choice to include Teams or not, a counterpunch to the core of Slack’s complaint. I wrote my thoughts here

I also wrote about matcha, how it can beneficial to our health and why it and its accessories are expensive

Business

In investing, when truly exceptional opportunities present themselves, Charlie Munger said: use a shovel, not a teaspoon

Both strategies yield the same result: that foreign affiliate employment increased as a direct response to increasingly stringent restrictions on H-1B visas. This effect is driven on the extensive and intensive margins; firms were more likely to open foreign affiliates in new countries in response, and employment increased at existing foreign affiliates. The effect is strongest among R&D-intensive firms in industries where services could more easily be offshored. The effect was somewhat geographically concentrated: foreign affiliate employment increased both in countries like India and China with large quantities of high-skilled human capital and in countries like Canada with more relaxed high-skilled immigration policies and closer geographic proximity. These empirical results also are supported by interviews with US multinational firms and an immigration lawyer

Source: NPER

How Ben & Jerry’s Perfected the Delicate Recipe for Corporate Activism

A look at how influential Facebook is in Bangladesh

Apple’s report on their sustainability progress

Where banks really make money on IPOs

An investigative piece by WSJ that looks into accusations that Amazon used confidential information accessed through its investment arm to launch competing products.

Shopify Saved Main Street. Next Stop: Taking On Amazon

An interesting piece on what appears to be a change in strategy for Apple TV+. This streaming space is highly competitive. I look forward to how Apple will compete with other heavyweights. On a side note, I really enjoyed Greyhound. You should give it a try

Technology

Giving GPT-3 a Turing Test

A good blog post on the behind-the-scenes technology that changed air travel

A report commissioned by Apple on commission rates of other marketplaces, compared to Apple Store. It’s an interesting study and it’s definitely good to have all the facts in one document. On the surface, Apple Store’s commission rates don’t look outrageous, compared to those of other marketplace platforms. However, the debate doesn’t end only at take rates

What I think is interesting

The Last Hunter Gatherers

A great write-up on beaches in Quy Nhon and Phu Yen in Vietnam. If you visit my country, I highly recommend that you go there. Wonderful beaches, few tourists, and great sea food

For years, African countries have taken loan money for China to improve their infrastructure and economy, in exchange for the use of these countries’ vast reserve of rare metal and resources. Now, a report said that Africa is more aware of the strings attached to loans from China. For a good reason!

Slack’s complaint against Microsoft

Disclaimer: I own Microsoft stocks in my personal portfolio.

Today, Slack filed an antitrust complaint against Microsoft in the EU over Microsoft Teams. Here is what Slack says in their blog

The complaint details Microsoft’s illegal and anti-competitive practice of abusing its market dominance to extinguish competition in breach of European Union competition law. Microsoft has illegally tied its Teams product into its market-dominant Office productivity suite, force installing it for millions, blocking its removal, and hiding the true cost to enterprise customers.

Slack’s objective is to force Microsoft to unbundle Teams from Microsoft Office 365 and sell it as a separate feature. The company reportedly had been discussing legal matters concerning Teams with the US authority for a while (per WSJ), but just decided to launch a formal complaint today. Given what has happened between the EU and big tech companies, it’s not difficult to see why Slack lodged the complaint there. Last year, the EU fined Google almost 1.5 billion euros for abusive practices in online advertising. It is also looking into Apple’s antitrust behavior with App Store rules. In 2004, Microsoft was fined half a billion euros for bundling Windows Media Player into its Windows. Perhaps, Slack is banking on the fact that the precedent and the current events as of late will be favorable to them in this case.

When I read the main part of the complain above, I was a bit surprised. My company is a bank in a highly regulated industry. We use licensed Microsoft Office 365, yet Cisco Jabber, not Teams, is our chat and video application. I don’t have a lot of confidence in our IT department to think that they can go around Microsoft and remove Teams if it’s not allowed by the Seattle-based company. In fact, if you look at how Teams is marketed, you will see that there are options to customers. There are three ways to get Teams: Office 365 Enterprise, Microsoft 365 Business and Microsoft 365 Enterprise. I know it’s not the easiest thing in the world to differentiate between the three, but here are the plans

Figure 1 – Office 365 Enterprise. Source: Microsoft

Figure 2 – Microsoft 365 Business. Source: Microsoft

Figure 3 – Microsoft 365 Enterprise. Source: Microsoft

As you can see from the three figures above, customers have at least one option in each category that allows them to use Microsoft Office 365 without Teams. To be clear, the screenshots above do not capture all features under each plan. It’s plausible that the other features which are not shown can force businesses to choose plans that only come with Teams. As a result, there are two points I want to make:

  • On the surface, the claim that Teams is forced on customers doesn’t seem true. Customers do have a choice to use Teams or not.
  • If Microsoft uses some indirect tactics to force Teams on customers, the onus is on Slack to prove it. However, the fact that companies whose products compete with Microsoft’s such as Slack, Cisco, Zoom, AirTable or Tableau, just to name a few, have a market does seem to me that it’s entirely possible to use non-Microsoft applications in addition to the popular Microsoft Office.

From Microsoft’s side, the company issued this following statement:

We created Teams to combine the ability to collaborate with the ability to connect via video, because that’s what people want. With COVID-19, the market has embraced Teams in record numbers while Slack suffered from its absence of video-conferencing. We’re committed to offering customers not only the best of new innovation, but a wide variety of choice in how they purchase and use the product.

source: Techcrunch

A big advantage that Microsoft has over Slack when selling a competing product is that the former, in most cases, already has an established relationship with customers through Microsoft Office and other products. To sign any customer, Slack has to cultivate the relationship from scratch. The task is even made more difficult when Slack has to convince potential customers to make additional investments, on top of what they already pay for Microsoft applications. Imagine if a company already pays from $5 to $35/month for every one of hundreds of employees to use Microsoft Office, in case Teams is included, there has to be a very good reason why it should incur more expenses to use Slack.

The last publicly revealed figures put Microsoft Teams and Slack at 75 million and 12 million daily active users, respectively. Microsoft revealed that in Q4 FY 2020, there were 69 organizations that had more than 100,000 users of Teams, up from 20 organizations in Q3 FY 2020. In the past, Slack insisted that Microsoft Teams isn’t a true competitor to their product; a claim that I found bewildering. It’s clear that Slack has a big problem at hand and the fact that they are formally complaining about Teams contradicts the previous claim.

I am all for competition as it benefits end users. If Microsoft deployed underhanded tactics during negotiations with companies and it’s not publicly known or if Slack can prove that the dizzying and head-scratching offerings by Microsoft indirectly force customers’ hands, by all means, I do think Microsoft should be held accountable. However, I am not convinced that it’s harmful to the end users that Microsoft can offer value through bundling and establish a direct relationship with customers more easily than Slack. Microsoft has to invest a lot of resources in building and maintaining a lot of other features, not just Teams.

The difference between the 2004 case and this, I suspect, is that Microsoft didn’t give users a choice whether they wanted to install Windows Media Player while they do with Teams, at least on the surface. My guess is that Slack’s complaint won’t go any far, but it’ll be interesting to see how this actually pans out.

What do you think about this complaint from Slack? Let me know in the comment. Have a good day and stay safe!