Do host countries really benefit from F1 races?

Vietnam is going to hose our first ever F1 race in April 2020. It will be a historic moment for my home country since as far as I can remember, we never have an international sporting event. As an F1 fanatic, I am excited about my fellow Vietnamese getting to know the sport I love. However, do host countries usually benefit from hosting an F1 event? Let’s take a look at a few cases

The bull case

In 2017, Singapore Tourism Board announced its plan to retain the race through 2021. STB outlined its rational below:

The announcement comes against the background of a year-to-date 19% increase in ticket sales, with the weekend sales still to be included. In its first decade, the race has yielded significant economic benefits, attracting over 450,000 international visitors to Singapore and about S$1.4 billion in tourism receipts[1]. With more than 90% of the race organisation sub-contracted annually to Singapore-based companies, the race also contributes to the local economy, over and above the tourism outcomes. This event has also showcased Singapore as a beautiful, vibrant and attractive destination to over 780 million international broadcast viewers.

Source: Singapore Tourism Board

If you watch F1 often enough like I do, drivers love to come to Singapore and it’s one of the most anticipated races on the calendar. In 2018, the race attracted the second biggest crowd, only behind the inaugural race in 2008. Hence, it is safe to say that Singapore benefits from having an F1 race.

Bahrain became the first country in the Middle East to host an F1 race in 2004. Since then, it has become one of the favorite tracks of drivers and fans. According to an E&Y audit report in 2015, the race generated a net gain of $95 million for the country and added multiple jobs directly. It was also reported that the race ignited some aspects of the country’s economy. As a result, Bahrain is a beneficiary of F1’s draw.

I didn’t know much about Azerbaijan or its capital Baku until 2016 when it first joined the F1 calendar. Since then, Baku has been responsible for some of the most exciting races. In 2018, a PwC report claimed that “more than $270 million has been added to the local economy as a result of the race, $164 million of which is “direct spend” or money spent by visitors and participants”. the 2018 race attracted 94,000 attendees and was watched by millions of viewers around the world.

The bear case

  • Indian GP ran only for three years and was discontinued after 2013 due to the lack of attendance
  • Korean GP was cancelled after three years as well after failing to generate interest and money
  • Malaysian GP was stopped after almost 20 years of hosting a race since the “numbers don’t add up any more”

It is telling that two new Asian races were discontinued after 3 years due to financial infeasibility. Whether Vietnam will follow the footsteps of Singapore or become another example of the bear case category above remains to be seen. A lot will depend on the execution and whether the races will be good. For the sake of my country, I hope that we will strive to emulate the success that Singapore has had.

The President, Economy and Stock Markets

Recently, I have come across quite a few posts on social media from my fellow Vietnamese back in my country about how the current President is responsible for the economy, evidenced by the unprecedented height of stock markets.

I am not so sure about that.

First, when a President takes office, he (since the US never has a female President) inherits his predecessor’s policies and economy. Discarding the existing policies takes time. New policies take time to go into effect. Then, it takes time to measure the effectiveness of the “new” economy. Economic policies aren’t light switches. Turn them on and the lights go on. Turn them off and the darkness comes. To determine whether the sitting President is truly responsible for the economy, one must be able to determine which policies were enacted and how the policies impacted the economy. I prepared a simple chart to illustrate the issue

To truly see how Trump stewarded the economy, one must be able to compare his performance with the trajectory based on what happened under Obama. Take all the factors, build a model and see how the predicted economy would have happened had Obama still been in office. Then, compare Trump’s performance to the model’s prediction which is the dotted line in the chart.

Take a look at the red line. The stock market still grew under Trump and still hit the all-time record. But then it is below what would have happened had Obama still been in the office. In that case, would you still say Trump did a good job? On the other hand, Trump should be credited for the stock market if his performance is the green line. Not only does the stock market hit the all-time high mark, but it also outperforms the model. No doubt about his credit here.

Here is exactly where the issue becomes tricky. It’s almost impossible to build an accurate model like that given how many unpredictable variables there are. As a consequence, I really doubt anyone can say with absolute certainty that one President is responsible for the stock market’s growth or that of the economy.

Now, one can definitely argue that as long as a President is in office, he or she should take credit for the economy and stock market’s performance. It’s fair to do so. But if that’s the case, he or she should also be responsible for everything wrong with the economy or stock market. You can’t cherry pick what to take credit for and what to avoid blame for. It doesn’t work that way.

If Trump takes credit for the stock market performance, he should also be held liable for the tariffs that are said to be suffered entirely by American businesses or consumers (CNBC) or for the huge increase in federal budget deficit (by 50%) since he took office (source: Heather Long).

It’s also worth noting that stock market performance, low unemployment rate or GDP growth or all together do not equal to increased wealth for average Americans. You can have all of them and increased income inequality, meaning that most of the increased wealth goes to the rich or the 1% or 10%, not the poorer Americans. And who should be held liable for that? The one who takes credit for the economy/stock market!

I really wish my fellow Vietnamese would be more informed

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