life – Page 2 – Minh Quang Duong

life

Have something to do in mind? Just do it as soon as possible!

May 18, 2022by MQDuong1 Comment

Here are a few anecdotes that lead me to believe that when you have a task in mind, it’s better to just get it over with as soon as possible.

Last month, a colleague opened a work ticket. The request was not easy, but I knew if I could sit down with full focus for a few hours, I would be able to finish it. I didn’t. I let it sit there and marinate for over a month while having different projects pull my attention in various directions. Two days ago on Monday, the person sent an email asking for an update and said he needed the data in the middle of this week. I freaked out because I was going to fly out fo a conference on Tuesday, taking the rest of the week off. I had to scramble, asking multiple people for information, and work late on Monday night to complete the ticket that I should have dealt with a while ago.

Knowing full well that I would need shirts to don casual business outfits for the conference, I planned to have several professionally cleaned for the occasion. The thing is: I procrastinated on it. I thought that washing and cleaning shirts would be quick and I could delay till the last minute . The day before I flew, I took my shirts to a cleaning store in town. I received a rude wake-up call when they said they needed more time than just 12 hours for these shirts. Such a poor decision on my part led to my washing the shirts by myself and unnecessary anxiety.

This trip didn’t come at the right time. I was cat-sitting for a friend who lived 20 minutes from my apartment. Because one of the cats has to take medicines at 8am and 8pm every day, I had to live there instead of shuttling back and forth. My flight yesterday was scheduled to be at 1pm. Hence, I planned to pack in the morning, go to work for a scheduled presentation, return home and head to the airport. Well, life threw me a curveball. While I was enjoying my coffee at 6:30am, I got a text from my fellow conference attendee that our flight out of Omaha was delayed and we would not make the connection flight in Salt Lake. He said there was another flight leaving in about 1.5 hours, but of course I couldn’t make it since I had to drive home, shower, pack and leave for the airport. Had I packed before, I would have probably made that flight. The result? A lot of anxiety to arrange a replacement flight and frustration because of the delays. I finally got to my final destination at 9pm, 4 hours later than expected.

The thing is that I reaped the profits of acting right away before.

When I was in Vietnam, the first thing my wife and I did out of quarantine was to prepare for the visa application and submit it. It took a couple of days, but we finished the task without delay. It was good that we did because the Consulate took longer than we expected to renew my visa. During those 3 weeks, we were anxious, not knowing when I could book the return flight or whether I could return to the US at all. My wife admitted that it felt good that we didn’t waste time on that crucial task.

Another example is my marriage certificate. My father-in-law asked us to only get the certificate a few days before the wedding and before my departure for the US. We refused. We wanted to become married legally beforehand. It turned out that we were right. Here is what happened. To get such a certificate in Vietnam, one person has to be certified single in their district before register as married together in the other person’s district. It took me three days to receive a piece of paper confirming that I was single. It’s just ridiculous red tape in Vietnam. Then, my wife and I went to her district’s People’s Committee for the registration. First, they turned us away because there was a small omission on my paper mentioned above. So we had to spend 2 hours sorting it out. When we came back, it took a couple of more tries to finally get the paperwork in order. But trouble didn’t stop there. The person called us at 4pm later that day to inform us that since my wife moved residence once after she turned 18 years old, she had to go back to her previous place to get a document certifying that she was legally single as well. Long story short, thanks to my mother-in-law hoarding old and outdated documents, after 4 days or so, we could finally have a marriage certificate in our hands. The tricky part is that we both had to be present when they gave us the certificate. So you see, had we listened to my father-in-law, either I would have had to delay my trip to the US or we would not have had the marriage certificate we need.

Life has a funny way to punish the unprepared. There are just a lot of unforeseen curveballs and these curveballs, unfortunately, tend to happen too often and at the wrong time. Procrastination and stupidity punished me a few times and I saw the rewards of prompt actions. But I was too comfortable in the warmth of procrastination. I need to work on myself to leave that comfort zone once there are tasks to be done. If you had similar experiences, I hope this will give you some necessary push.

life

Review of my 2021

December 26, 2021January 1, 2022by MQDuong1 Comment

Here is the scorecard for my 2021.

Investing

The last couple of months wasn’t nice to my portfolio, but overall I made money in the whole year. My portfolio’s total return went from 4% in 2019 to 23% in 2020, to 40% in 2021. It’s not much, but it’s honest work and I can’t say I am too disappointed. Can it be better? Absolutely.

I made some stupid mistakes with my portfolio. The first was to sell Costco. I love the business, but I was in need of some capital to invest in companies which, to me, had more potential for growth than Costco. I paid the price dearly as the stock went from $370 when I sold it back in April 2021 to $550 today. The second miss was Upstart. A good friend recommended to me when the stock was trading at $88 in January 2021. I didn’t jump on it for reasons that I still don’t fully understand. At the peak, the stock hit $390 or something and even though there was a big pull-back, I would have still made a healthy return. The third mistake is that I didn’t save enough cash on hand when the market dipped and presented great opportunity to buy.

I wrote about how Investing is hard. It really is. I am sure I will continue to make mistakes. I can’t promise that I won’t repeat the ones I made this year. What I do hope is to take my return to a new height. The good news is that I have compounding on my side.

Grade: 6/10

Books I reviewed

I read in total 15 books this year. Not bad, but not a lot either. I’ll strive to read more in 2022. Below are some of my reviews:

Richer, Wiser, Happier: How The World’s Greatest Investors Win In Markets And Life. This is the best book I read in 2021.

Obviously Awesome

Junk To Gold

Amazon Unbound

Think Again: The Power Of Knowing What You Don’t Know

The Spotify Play

Exercised: Why Something We Never Evolved To Do Is Healthy And Rewarding

Grade: 7/10

My Blog

I blogged less this year than I did in 2020. There were weeks when I only had one post, excluding the weekly reading series I always do on Saturdays, or when I didn’t write anything at all. One of the goals I have for 2022 is to increase the posting frequency while keeping the same level of quality. I am not saying that I am a good writer at all, but truth be told, what I wrote this year or in 2020 makes me cringe less than what I put out three years ago. So I’ll take that as progress and continue to work on myself as a writer. I wrote some time back about why I blog. It rang true then and it does ring true now. It helps me become a better person, a better professional and I still do enjoy the process. If you ever came across this little blog of mine and became a subscriber or left a like, you have my thanks.

My top 5 blog posts, besides the homepage:

My experience with Amazon Shopper Panel

Naval Ravikant’s take on death

Create a hover effect on Mapbox

Circadian rhythm, Melatonin, Adenosine, Caffeine and Sleep

My thoughts on Walmart Plus

Grade: 7/10

Work

2021 has been a very busy year for me at work. The pandemic has turned the team upside down with folks relocating to other cities or leaving for better opportunities. Though we tried to backfill the ones that left, the new arrivals have to take some time to acclimate to the team and the overall business. Meanwhile, the work just keeps coming. Existing business-as-usuals and new initiatives. Hence, I have had to shoulder more responsibilities and spent more time working outside the business hours more than I’d like to. But it’s not all bad news. I got promoted and had a chance to mentor interns and new teammates; which is one of the areas I really love to improve next year and beyond.

There are two main things that I want to do better in the future. The first is to sell better, whether it’s myself or my work. This year, several occasions showed me that while the work I did might be good, it didn’t come across as convincing to others as I was a lousy salesman. My self-assessment was echoed by a senior leader in the company, who was gracious enough to share his thought candidly. To be able to move up the ladder, I need to be more confident and communicate my ideas more effectively and better.

The second goal is to have a team to manage and more ownership of an entire project. I managed folks before, albeit briefly, and have been mentoring some people at work. Nonetheless, my goal in the first 2 or 3 years to have a team of my own so I can manage and lead. In addition, I don’t want just ownership of a project’s aspect. I want the ownership of an entire project that can help my company meaningfully.

Grade: 8/10

life, Random

Is Menadione – Synthetic Vitamin K safe for your pets?

December 13, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

I have a 14-month-old cat that I love so much. He has been eating Purina Pro Plan Focus – Sensitive Skin & Stomach for over a year. Lately he has seemed to be fed up with the food so I looked for an alternative last weekend. That’s when I came across the controversy of Menadione and started to read upon it. I’d like to share what I have learned so far.

What is Menadione? It’s the synthetic version of Vitamin K, an essential vitamin for humans and animals. The natural version of Vitamin K (K1 and K2) are proven to be harmless, even with high doses. Menadione, on the other hand, can cause several health issues for humans, particularly liver toxicity. In fact, the FDA has long banned the use of Menadione as a supplement for humans, a decision echoed by several studies in Europe.

Although allergic reaction is possible, there is no known toxicity associated with high doses (dietary or supplemental) of the phylloquinone (vitamin K₁) or menaquinone (vitamin K₂) forms of vitamin K. The same is not true for synthetic menadione (vitamin K₃) and its derivatives. Menadione can interfere with the function of glutathione, one of the body’s natural antioxidants, resulting in oxidative damage to cell membranes. Menadione given by injection has induced liver toxicity, jaundice, and hemolytic anemia (due to the rupture of red blood cells) in infants; therefore, menadione is no longer used for treatment of vitamin K deficiency. No tolerable upper intake level has been established for vitamin K.
Source: Oregon State University

Since Menadione is cheaper to produce, pet food manufacturers have every incentive to include this substance to make their products nutritionally complete (on the surface) and commercially cheaper. The question is whether it is legal to do so in the first place.

Here is what the FDA says on the matter, as recently as April 2021:

Although vitamin K is an important nutrient for animals and several sources are available, not all of those sources can or should be used in animal feed. Many have not been approved for use in the United States.
Menadione dimethylpyrimidinol bisulfite and menadione nicotinamide bisulfite are vitamin K active substances that are regulated as food additives for use in animal feed. Federal regulation 21 CFR 573.620 lays out how menadione dimethylpyrimidinol bisulfite must be used in feed. Menadione dimethylpyrimidinol bisulfite is a nutritional supplement for the prevention of vitamin K deficiency in chicken and turkey feeds at a level not to exceed 2 g per ton of complete feed, and in the feed of growing and finishing swine at a level not to exceed 10 g per ton of complete feed.
Menadione nicotinamide bisulfite is also used as a nutritional supplement for both the prevention of vitamin K deficiency and as a source of supplemental niacin in poultry and swine. Federal regulation 21 CFR 573.625 states that this substance can be added to chicken and turkey feeds at a level not to exceed 2 g per ton of complete feed, and to growing and finishing swine feeds at a level not to exceed 10 g per ton of complete feed.
Before either menadione dimethylpyrimidinol bisulfite or menadione nicotinamide bisulfite could be used in a manner different from that specified in the appropriate regulation, a new food additive petition would need to be submitted and approved by the Food and Drug Administration.
According to NRC’s publication, Vitamin Tolerances of Animals (1987), based on the limited amount of available information, vitamin K did not result in toxicity when high amounts of phylloquinone, the natural form of vitamin K, are consumed. It is also noted that menadione, the synthetic vitamin K usually used in animal feed, can be added up to levels as high as 1,000 times the dietary requirement without seeing any adverse effects in animals, except in horses. Administration of these compounds by injection has produced adverse effects in horses, and it is not clear if these effects would also occur when vitamin K active substances are added to the diet.
Source: FDA

The fine print clearly says that the FDA only allows the use of Menadione in chicken and turkey feeds. Any other use of the substance will have to be reviewed and sanctioned by the agency. The last time I checked, my cat is a cat, not a turkey or a chicken. Therefore, if a cat food label doesn’t clearly show that it’s approved by FDA, it’s safe to say that from the agency’s perspective, the product is not legal.

The lack of explicit approval from FDA doesn’t deter pet food manufacturers. These companies argue that Menadione is safe for pets because they follow guidelines from AAFCO and that the substance is used in amount that is so much smaller than what AAFCO recommends. Let’s analyze that. Firstly, AAFCO is an NGO that consists of state officials with responsibility for passing and enforcing state laws and regulations with regard to the safety of animal feeds. AAFCO sets the standards and guidelines that these officials often adopt, but the organization itself has no regulatory authority.

Second, when it comes to the role of AAFCO in this debate, it’s important to separate its opinion on Vitamin K from the one on Menadione. The organization does require that “Vitamin K does not need to be added unless the diet contains more than 25% fish on a dry matter basis“. What this requirement means is that if a diet doesn’t contain fish at all, there is absolutely no reason to include Menadione. When I found out that my cat’s chicken paste from Purina contains Menadione, I was furious. They put a controversial substance in the food even when they don’t have to! And even though Vitamin K is mentioned, AAFCO doesn’t refer specifically to Menadione as an approved source. In fact, here is what the Pet Food Committee Chair of AAFCO had to say on the matter:

Nowhere in Dr Kashani’s response did he mention that Menadione is approved for use in pet food. He clearly relies on the FDA guidelines, which, as mentioned above, only regulate the use of natural Vitamin K sources K1 and K2. Like the FDA, AAFCO only approves Vitamin K3 for poultry feed, not for pet diets. Sadly, pet food manufacturers muddy the waters and use it as a blanket excuse for their inclusion of this supplement in commercial pet products. In a response to a customer’s question, the owner of Weruva said: “according to AAFCO, cat food that contains at least 25% seafood on a dry matter basis must contain a certain level of vitamin K, and according to AAFCO, the only approved source of vitamin k is menadione“. As you can see from the screenshot below, it’s not exactly what is in the rule book.

Among the items discussed in the AAFCO meeting in August 2021 was the use of Menadione. An expert panel commissioned by AAFCO concluded that this ingredient was safe for use in pet foods. Here is the catch. The panel came to this recommendation after reading a white paper written by Purina Pet Foods, which, you may guess, is a pet food manufacturer. The white paper is miraculously deemed confidential and not available to the public eyes. This blatantly flawed process is frustrating and calls into question the recommendation of this so-called expert panel. Without knowing the rational and evidence behind the conclusion, who can say that it’s thoroughly studied and scientifically proven?

I visited a Petsmart and Petco store last weekend. There are a lot of products with Menadione. Apparently, the ingredient has been used in pet food for decades, yet the exact legality of the practice has barely been questioned. Just because something is a long-standing practice without any regulatory approval doesn’t mean that it’s legally allowed. Rules are rules. And if that’s not enough, consider this. We don’t often change our pet diets without cause. The consistent consumption of food with Menadione, albeit with a tiny dose, every day may also accumulate over the long term. And who knows? It may cause serious health issues for our pets. I don’t know about you, but I am not, in good conscience, willing to do it to my beloved cat.

life

Omicron – The new mutation said to be much more transmissible than the Delta variant

November 26, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

Some very bad news happened today. There is a new Covid-19 variant called Omicron (B.1.1.529) that is said to be highly contagious. Cases were already identified in several countries in Africa, Hong Kong, Israel and Belgium. Several governments, including the U.S government, already imposed travel restrictions to and from some of these countries. The stock market had the worst day in 2021 today. If this new mutation is as contagious as the early data suggests, we’re in for another rough ride…

I came across this blog post by Dr Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and I thought it would be helpful for anyone that wants to learn about this:

B.1.1.529 was first discovered in Botswana on November 11. It was then quickly identified in South Africa three days later and identified in two cases in Hong Kong. This morning Israel and Belgium announced that they have cases. The Belgium case was a young, unvaccinated woman who developed flu-like symptoms 11 days after travelling to Egypt via Turkey. She had no links to South Africa. This means that the virus is already circulating in communities. As of yesterday, 100 cases have been identified across the globe (mostly in South Africa). As I write this, no cases have been identified in the United States.
B.1.1.529 has 32 mutations on the spike protein alone. This is an insane amount of change. As a comparison, Delta had 9 changes on the spike protein. We know that B.1.1.529 is not a “Delta plus” variant. The figure below shows a really long line, with no previous Delta ancestors. So this likely means it mutated over time in one, likely immunocompromised, individual.
The rate in which these cases are spreading are far higher than any previous variant. Disease modeling scientist Weiland estimated that B.1.1.529 is 500% more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus. (Delta was 70% more transmissible). John Burn-Murdoch (Chief Data Reporter at Financial Times) also found that B.1.1.529 is much more transmissible than Delta.

I hope the positive notes Dr Jetelina has in the end will come through and we will not be sucked back in one more phase of this never-ending pandemic.

Food, life

A 750-year-old soy sauce secret and an iconic product design

May 16, 2021by MQDuong4 Comments

As an Asian, I love soy sauce. That’s what I grew up with and continue to use it regularly in my own cooking. So it was a pleasant surprise that I came across two very interesting clips. The first one talks about how a method to make soy sauce has survived centuries and generations in the birthplace of soy sauce in Japan. The second one discusses the iconic product design of Kikkoman. Not only is their dispenser’s design recognizable without any logo or branding, but it also bolsters customer experience.

Isn’t the world interesting? The design that we usually take for granted took the original designer, Kenji Ekuan, several years to develop. The sauce that we dip our sushi or pour on our food has been around for centuries. This is the main reason why I want to travel the world, to learn about new things.

Entertainment, life

The year the Earth changed

April 29, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

If you haven’t watched the documentary “The year the Earth changed” on Apple TV+, do yourself a favor: Subscribe and watch it! I guarantee it’s worth $5 you’ll pay, which still is less expensive than a lot of drinks at Starbucks.

The pandemic forced many of us to go into lockdowns, especially around March and April last year. The unusual pause in human activities led to a once-in-a-lifetime drop in human disturbance in the natural world. That is what this documentary is all about. The crew went to different parts of the world to record what happened to the Earth when humans paused for a change. They pieced together a beautiful story of how much the natural ecosystems benefited from our short-term retreat; which, by extension, is a condemnation of how detrimental our existence is to other species.

One example that I remember very well is how tourists to Africa endanger the lives of cheetah cubs. Cheetahs are the fastest sprinters in the world. They run fast because of their slender build. But it is exactly that build and the tendency to live individually that put them at disadvantage against other hunters such as lions or hyenas. Mother cheetahs are responsible for keeping their cubs safe and feeding them at least once every two or three days. The hunts are not always easy. Mother cheetahs may have to run very far away from their cubs to be able to catch and kill preys. Once a kill is completed, there begins a dilemma. Dragging a prey back to the cubs is a laborious task that may invite unwanted guests in hyenas and lions, against which the lonesome cheetahs stand little chance. Going back to fetch the cubs can protect the weak younglings, but mothers and children may find themselves with empty stomachs because the food will likely be stolen. Hence, mother cheetahs naturally use discreet and distinct voice to call the cubs over. They cannot make too big or too frequently a sound because danger always lurks around and the position of their powerless cubs may be compromised. Naturally, cheetahs adapt to the surrounding conditions to develop their ability to communicate with each other safely. Until humans. As tourists with all the noisy jeeps and talk make it exceedingly challenging for the cubs to listen to the call of their mothers. In the documentary, experts said that the pause in tourists to where cheetahs live increased the livelihood of cheetah cubs.

Listening to the engaging narration of David Attenborough and watching how other species’ lives amazingly became so much better without us is simply jaw-dropping. I couldn’t believe how much a disturbance we humans are. This pandemic is a blessing in disguise. No more theories. No more what-ifs. What happened in nature when we took a break was real. There is now recorded evidence that there is so much that we can and must do to protect our environment and other species.

An excellent documentary. Really thankful to those that put it together.

life, Optimism

Get back to what you love

April 3, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

Google just published a moving ads named “Get back to what you love”. Have a look. It’s been a while since I saw such a good ads from Google.

I got my 1st vaccine this week. The following day, I felt tired and my shoulder was all sore. But the soreness and tiredness didn’t last long. Two days after the dose was administered, I felt fine. After more than a year of isolation by myself in my apartment, I felt a tremendous feeling of relief. I can’t wait to get back to where we were before this nightmare started. You know, a proper haircut, meeting my friends, family & colleagues, taking a walk without a mask, eating a great meal in a restaurant freely, traveling.

You know, back to living.

I took this photo from Downtown Omaha. Folks were talking and having meals on terraces. Street artists were playing music. People were walking hand-in-hand, laughing and smiling. Car parks were crowded. I haven’t seen the area that vibrant for a very long time. According to the CDC, every state in the US has more than 25% of its population receive the 1st dose. I hope to see the herd immunity in a month or two. So that we can get back to what we love.

life, Personal Growth

Great reminders for clustered and busy minds

March 20, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

I came across a couple of things that I absolutely believe are great reminders and lessons in life, especially when our mind is often distracted by the deluge of daily information, and clustered with hours at work.

The better measure of success

When I was a kid or even in my 20s, success was solely associated with money and title. Because how success is measured is personally subjective, that approach must still ring true to some. That’s perfectly fine. But it’s important to keep in mind that it’s NOT the only approach. Liz and Mollie created a graphic below to demonstrate another point of view on success. And I agree with it. Whenever you compare yourself to another person’s title or net worth, it’s important to keep in mind that they are only two small slices of the whole pie. There are other aspects that are as, if not more, important than Title and Money. Would you still trade for bigger Title & Salary slices if the other shrank significantly? Would Title and Salary still mean as much if you hated what you do, got sick often, had bad sleep most of the time and never had time for your hobbies?

If there is anything that I want to add to the pie, it’s relationship. Relationship with friends or loved ones is highly important and it requires time and attention, both of which are limited resources, to cultivate. Sometimes, not “having a life” may be what it takes to achieve professional success and I applaud those who are willing to make that sacrifice. But personally I am at a point of my life where surrounding myself with friends, family, my cat and my girlfriend sits firmly at the top of my agenda. Hence, it’s pretty pointless to compare my situation with others’. And it’s often pointless to make any comparisons, to begin with.

Title 1: How we’re taught to measure success. Image: A pie diagram showing two equal parts, Salary and Job Title.

Title 2:
A better measure. Image: A pie diagram showing more segments, which in increasing sizes are Job Title, Salary, Free Time, Liking What You Do, Physical Health and Mental Health.

Twitter handle in top right: @lizandmollie

The Dunning Kruger Effect

The Dunning Kruger Effect is a bias in which people mistakenly overestimate their ability at something. Barry Ritholtz had a graphic that succinctly illustrates the Effect

The world’s problems are often complicated, multi-faceted and, in my opinion, can hardly be fully explained in most cases. Should the federal government provide the economic stimulus package to help out citizens in need or should it be aware of the potential federal debt and inflation? Which one outweighs the other at this moment? Would action or lack of it result in a worse scenario for the US? I don’t think anybody can say for sure. Additionally, people in Western countries, especially in the US, often claim that democracy is the best societal form. But is it? Given what is happening with voter restrictions, the spread of misinformation, the dysfunction of Congress, the income inequality and the long lines at food banks, is it really definitively better than what happens in Vietnam, Singapore or China, countries that are essentially authoritarian? Financially speaking, can anyone explain why Bitcoin has risen leaps and bounds in the last few years? What are the underlying rationales for its rise or fall?

I understand that there are scenarios where we need to “fake it till we make it”, as in we demonstrate a high level of confidence than what our competence can back up. In interviews for a new job, how can an outsider applicant be sure that he or she will do a better job than an internal candidate? How can a person be confident in succeeding in a new industry or a new environment? Yet, all of us sell ourselves hard in interviews all the time. In entrepreneurship, investors pour plenty of money in startups and make expensive bets that these startups will be able to cash all the checks that they claim they can write. I am not naive enough to think that confidence doesn’t play a role in our society.

However, if one is serious about intellectual curiosity, it’s important to beware of the Dunning-Kruger Effect and avoid overconfidence when one is not competently ready. The tricky parts are to know where one is on the curve and how to move to the right of the x-axis. Everybody has their own method. Mine include 1/constantly remembering that in most cases, nobody really knows what is going on, 2/ reading everyday to keep myself as informed as I possibly can and 3/ writing things down. The act of writing my thoughts down really helps. Often, the end result is much better than my initial thought, regardless of whether it is good enough to thousands of people out there.

One implication is that if you have a different point of view than some authority voices out there who have a better reputation, a brand name or a celebrity mark on social media, it doesn’t mean that you’re wrong and they are always right. I am a fan of Twitter as I learn a lot from the people on it, but I am often taken back by claims that some experts make with startling confidence. For instance, some chastised the AB5 law in California as a disaster, but recently the top court in UK forced Uber to recognize drivers as employees and the company followed suit, pointing out that the extra expenses would not raise fare. In another instance, some experts called GDPR a disaster as it would help incumbents like Google or Facebook and reduce competition. Well, the WSJ yesterday said that Amazon, Google and Facebook are now responsible for 90% of the US’s digital ad market. The US doesn’t have GDPR, yet there is a triopoly. Also, it’s difficult for me to believe that analysts think that they can run companies better than insiders who have a lot more information. Yet, I have seen many who make declarations with overwhelming confidence on social media all the time.

We’re nobodies in the grand scheme of things

A couple of days ago, Business Insider published a picture of the Milky Way, which took a Finnish astrophotographer 12 long years to put together. Just look at the magnificence and grandness of the picture below

It took over a decade and 1,000 hours of photography to create this picture of the Milky Way — Source: Business Insider

When viewed from outer space, we will look extremely small, like a peck of dust on Earth. Imagine how would you describe each of us when Earth itself looks extremely small in the Milky Way? Microscopic is the best adjective I can come up with, but that doesn’t even come close to doing the scenario justice. Plus, most of us don’t make it past 100 years of age. Yet, the Earth is millions of years old and the Milky Way is much much older than that. What if there is a civilization out there that is so advanced that our current one looks like BC to them? Whenever I think about life from this perspective, it’s easy to get me grounded. And that often helps with avoidance of the Dunning-Kruger Effect or of the thinking that success is just about money and title.

Business, life

Take-aways From Berkshire Hathaway 2020 Shareholder Letters

February 27, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

Shareholder letters, when written well, are a great source of knowledge, wisdom and interesting things. Berkshire Hathaway’s is one of those letters. Today, the company, which is based in Omaha where I currently reside, published its 2020 letter. I read it with a hot cup of coffee and pleasure, and now I want to share my take-aways in this post. You can read the letter in full here

You don’t always win every year, but being patient and having a long-term horizon matters

On the second page of the letter, readers can see the annual and compounded return of Berkshire Hathaway for the last 55 years. The firm didn’t always have a positive return every year. Far from it. It fluctuated greatly from one year to the next, from 28% return this year to -32% the following year. If these professional capital allocators who have more years of investing than my years of living don’t have a positive return every year, I think I shouldn’t set that bar for myself or neither should you. The main thing is that Berkshire had a compounded annual return of 20% in the last 55 years, meaning that the overall gain is some 2.8 million percent, a ridiculous return. Everyone prefers getting rich fast, but in the long term, it is likely better to be patient and have a long term horizon. The results will come, if you do it right.

Having an investing philosophy

Once in a while, I ran across some FinTwit folks who questioned the wisdom of holding large cap stocks such as Apple or Amazon. You know, the familiar big names across industries. These people claimed that to earn an outsized return, investors should look somewhere else where the fish isn’t fished as often. That may be true, but in the age of information, it’s really hard to get information that others can’t. What is harder to possess is patience and willingness to adopt a long term horizon. Back to Berkshire Hathaway, the company said that its Apple position was likely its 2nd most important asset. I mean, if these people upon whom thousands of investors entrust their savings choose Apple and earn excellent returns, why shouldn’t anyone, provided that they did their homework?

Berkshire’s investment in Apple vividly illustrates the power of repurchases. We began buying Apple stock late in 2016 and by early July 2018, owned slightly more than one billion Apple shares (split-adjusted). Saying that, I’m referencing the investment held in Berkshire’s general account and am excluding a very small and separately-managed holding of Apple shares that was subsequently sold. When we finished our purchases in mid-2018, Berkshire’s general account owned 5.2% of Apple.
Our cost for that stake was $36 billion. Since then, we have both enjoyed regular dividends, averaging about $775 million annually, and have also – in 2020 – pocketed an additional $11 billion by selling a small portion of our position.
Despite that sale – voila! – Berkshire now owns 5.4% of Apple. That increase was costless to us, coming about because Apple has continuously repurchased its shares, thereby substantially shrinking the number it now has outstanding.

To Charlie and Warren, I think they don’t care about being a contrarian like so many aspire to be. What they want to be is to be right with their allocation of capital, as it is their fiduciary duty to shareholders. If we can get excellent returns, will it matter if those returns come from a tech giant or a company few heard of? Nah. So if you are only comfortable with the companies you know, don’t listen to the “advisors” who seem to be more eager to be “contrarian” (whatever that means) than to be right.

On page 4 of the letter, Warren and Charlie laid out their investment philosophy. They prefer owning a piece of a great business to 100% of that business. Their reasoning is that great businesses are rarely available for the taking, and even if they are, they will be greatly expensive. Owning a piece of a great business is cheaper, more profitable and cheaper. Berkshire Hathaway’s favorite companies are good to great businesses with a competent leadership that retain most of their annual earnings. As the investees grow their businesses over time, Berkshire’s ownership becomes more valuable. Over a long period of time, the growth in value will be aided by the 8th wonder of the world, compound interest. It may sound easy, but it isn’t. Identifying great businesses to buy is a challenge in and of itself. Sitting on those investments patient for a long period of time is not an easy task either.

What’s out of sight, however, should not be out of mind: Those unrecorded retained earnings are usually building value – lots of value – for Berkshire. Investees use the withheld funds to expand their business, make acquisitions, pay off debt and, often, to repurchase their stock (an act that increases our share of their future earnings). As we pointed out in these pages last year, retained earnings have propelled American business throughout our country’s history. What worked for Carnegie and Rockefeller has, over the years, worked its magic for millions of shareholders as well.

Admittedly, I learned a lot from Charlie and Warren in terms of investing. I try to read up as much as possible about a business and if I like what I read, I buy the stock and try not to sell it. The decision not to sell isn’t driven by my financial determination that a stock has more upside to go. That piece, I still have to learn, even though I don’t find it easy. Instead, my choice to keep stocks over time is mainly driven by my laziness. I don’t want to get up every day and day trade. Plus, I believe that once I own a piece, a very small piece of a great business, it will be more beneficial to keep the ownership as long as possible. A lesson from the two wise old men.

Work ethic

Charlie is now 97 years old and Warren is 90 years old. They are still actively managing their firm, making investment decisions and interacting with shareholders, either through letters like this or a meeting. In the letter, they talked about the story of Nebraska Furniture Mart and its founder, Mrs B, which is one of my favorite business stories:

The company’s founder, Rose Blumkin (“Mrs. B”), arrived in Seattle in 1915 as a Russian emigrant, unable to read or speak English. She settled in Omaha several years later and by 1936 had saved $2,500 with which to start a furniture store. Competitors and suppliers ignored her, and for a time their judgment seemed correct: World War II stalled her business, and at yearend 1946, the company’s net worth had grown to only $72,264. Cash, both in the till and on deposit, totaled $50 (that’s not a typo).
One invaluable asset, however, went unrecorded in the 1946 figures: Louie Blumkin, Mrs. B’s only son, had rejoined the store after four years in the U.S. Army. Louie fought at Normandy’s Omaha Beach following the D-Day invasion, earned a Purple Heart for injuries sustained in the Battle of the Bulge, and finally sailed home in November 1945. Once Mrs. B and Louie were reunited, there was no stopping NFM. Driven by their dream, mother and son worked days, nights and weekends. The result was a retailing miracle.
By 1983, the pair had created a business worth $60 million. That year, on my birthday, Berkshire purchased 80% of NFM, again without an audit. I counted on Blumkin family members to run the business; the third and fourth generation do so today. Mrs. B, it should be noted, worked daily until she was 103 – a ridiculously premature retirement age as judged by Charlie and me.

Mrs B worked daily till she was 103. Charlie and Warren are in their 90s and still working. I mean, I find it inspiring. Sometimes, I feel old whenever I think about the time when I was 16, even though I am just approaching 31. But these great examples remind me that I still have a few decades to work and enjoy life. Such a reminder can be hugely valuable.

Business, life

What I like about Apple Fitness+

January 28, 2021by MQDuong1 Comment

Apple Fitness+ is a new service from Apple that is dedicated to helping customers work out more. The service is paired exclusively with Apple Watch, meaning that you need at least an Apple Watch 3 to use it. You can read more about Apple Fitness+ here. The normal subscription is $10/month. Like every other subscription, there is a one-month trial for new users. There is also an option of buying the service through a bigger bundle Apple One. Here is my experience with the service.

I used my free month in December and got hooked. I like the service enough to pay $10 for this month, a move that I don’t do very often. As many of you can relate, I don’t enjoy getting changed, preparing my clothes & a towel, driving to a gym and driving back. Now that the cold and slipper winter is upon us and we’re still in the middle of a pandemic, I have even less motivation to jump through those hoops just for a workout, no matter how important regular exercising is. With Apple Fitness+, I can work out in my living room and even my bedroom whenever I feel like. So that’s a plus.

There are other ways to work out at home without Apple Fitness+ and $10/month. I even wrote about a channel called The Body Coach TV that I really like. What other benefits does Apple Fitness+ offer? Choices! In addition to different workouts, there are clips of different lengths; which adds to the variety that helps spice things up. There are days when I am in a mood for a 30-minute HIIT, and there are days when I only have energy for a 10-min yoga, a 10-min core and a 10-min stretching & breathing. Make no mistakes. Exercise is often repetitive and boring. Our energy level isn’t at a high level every; therefore, we need all the help that we can get to exercise regularly.

Apple Fitness+: New online exercise service for Apple Watch | Macworld — Source: MacWorld

Having different types of exercises under one app is also valuable. I used to finish a 20-min HIIT and spend several minutes on YouTube trying to find a breathing and stretching clip that I liked. With Apple Fitness+, it usually takes me about 5-10 seconds. What they call “mindful cooldown” lies in the app with different clips that last from 5 to 10 mins and different trainers. I do think that this is a subtle strength of Apple Fitness+. We measure how many clicks it takes for a customer to finish a banking application. The same mentality should be applied here. Apple Fitness+ brings down the friction that stands between users and more exercises. These mindful cooldowns or yoga don’t burn as much energy as HIIT, but together with other types of exercises, they spur users to move more, close rings and in turn, get more motivated to get a workout in the next day. The rings on the phone act similarly to a list of tasks. The more rings you close, the better and motivated you feel to do it again the next day. Even when your energy level is low, you can still close rings with lighter exercises and keep the momentum alive.

Another thing I like about Apple Fitness+ is the setup. As a guy living alone in my apartment during a pandemic, I crave for a sense of community though I don’t desperately seek out people to meet. While I train with Apple Fitness+, for about 30-40 minutes a day, I get that bit of sense of community with the trainers. The number of trainers is limited to three; which is enough to make users feel that they have companions in a meaningful way. So far I have enjoyed the music curated and played in the clips. The curators know when to up the beat and when to give us silence, especially during the meditation periods.

Which brings me to what I like the most about it. I have started my days in the last few weeks with some yoga, stretching and meditation on Apple Fitness+ and I feel really great. I feel connected to my mind and body more through these exercises. As somebody who reads a lot and tends to work on a lot of things at the same time. I often catch myself unfocused and distracted in the busy world. These few minutes of connecting with my mind and body make me feel different and relaxed to the point that I really look forward to the next workout. Of course, I can search YouTube for free clips, but as I mentioned, I haven’t found anything that can offer consistency in style and variety in content like Apple Fitness+.

All in all, I don’t think that there is anything ground breaking about Apple Fitness+. If you look for some never-been-done-before reasons to like it, there is none. What makes it appealing to me is a combination of little things put nicely together to create a pleasant user experience. Pleasant enough to make me shell out $10/month.