Decoupling – A Great Tool To Analyze Business Strategies & Disruption

What is Decoupling? In an insightful working paper, Thales Teixeira and Peter Jamieson described Decoupling as “the separation of two or more activities ordinarily done in conjunction by consumers”. The separation’s purpose is to increase value for consumers by focusing on the value-creating activity while reducing exposure to the value-capturing or value-destroying one.

Breaking down a business’ success or failure is not a straightforward exercise. There are so many factors at play. The same goes for disruption. However, I believe Decoupling offers a simply yet powerful tool to analyze business strategies and disruption.

Below are a few examples of how I use Decoupling to look at companies:

  • Uber: consumers have a transportation need to go from A to B. That’s the value-creating piece. However, before Uber, there were several non-value-creating activities. If someone wanted to drive themselves, they had to physically and mentally stay alert for some time and look for a parking slot. If riders used a taxi, they had to somehow manage to get a cab and in some cases, suffer from an unhygienic car/driver. Uber decoupled the act of going from A to B in a comfortable manner from all other noises by providing consumers a way to book a decent car with just a few taps on a phone and a driver that is already vetted.
  • Aldi: at grocery stores, consumers want to buy groceries that they deem worth their money & time. That’s the value consumers need. Some stores; however, sell many more items, stack different variations for one item (cereal, milk or ground coffee, for example) and, as a consequence, have bigger stores that take time for consumers to navigate. Aldi competes and, dare I say, wins over consumers by focusing on selling good groceries on the cheap by 1/ leveraging private labels which are cheaper than national brands; 2/ eliminating activities like market research, advertising or unnecessary expenses; 3/ keeping their stores small and just acceptably decorated. They decouple affordable groceries from everything that threatens to increase costs.
  • Venmo/CashApp/PayPal: Consumers always need to send money to and receive money from other folks as quickly, cheaply and seamlessly as possible. Before the likes of Venmo, CashApp or PayPal, it was either cash on hand which necessitated an actual time-consuming meet or a check which took some time to settle. These apps decoupled the money exchange activity from the time wasters. Consumers can exchange money in almost real time.
  • AWS: every company needs IT infrastructure to operate and compete in this day and age. What they don’t need is to go out, scrap all the components, stand up an IT stack and maintain it over time, including hardware replacement and software update. AWS decouples the use of IT resources from the act of acquiring and maintaining it. Because of AWS, startups can get going quickly without saddling themselves in high expenses while big companies can leverage the cloud and scale down IT workforce.
  • AirBnb: ordinary hosts that don’t operate a resort or hotel have three essential activities: hosting, finding guests and verifying that such guests are trustworthy enough to let into their homes. Guests, on the other hand, have to travel and find a place where they can feel safe. AirBnb functions as the decoupler that allows hosts to focus on hosting and guests to focus on traveling. The brand name of AirBnb and the network effect bring one party to the other. Their review mechanism fosters the trust in the ecosystem.
  • TSMC: the production of computer chips involves design, manufacturing and assembly of chips. Each step requires different expertise and cost structure. Semiconductor shops in the past used to do everything. Then, companies like TSMC decoupled from the value chain. The Taiwan-based firm focuses on building the best fabs in the world and manufacturing chips, leaving the design and assembly to somebody else. The result is that TSMC is now the market leader in the chip manufacturing market and the indispensable player in this industry.

Decoupling works because it reduces costs for both the decouplers and consumers. From the consumer perspective, the more activities, the more costs. And I am not merely talking about monetary costs. Time spent on non-creating activities is also a significant cost. From the decoupler perspective, focusing on one link in the value chain deepens expertise, reaches economies of scale and lowers unit economics. Aldi is still one of the most affordable and best grocers out there. Remember when Uber and AirBnb used to be cheap when they had their breakthrough?

Decoupling, in my opinion, is a useful concept and powerful tool to look at businesses. Thales’ book will have more details. If you are interested in learning more, I’d recommend that you read it.

Weekly reading – 6th August 2022

What I wrote last week

Apple Q3 FY2022 Earnings

AWS, what a business!

Even with a loss of $2.6 billion, Uber had a great quarter

Business

($) America’s New Energy Crisis. A worrying report on the state of the energy supply in the US. Demand continues rise and unfortunately, so do oil prices. Projects to produce green alternatives take a long time to be completed and integrated into the national grid. “As U.S. power supplies tighten, developers are struggling to build these projects quickly enough to offset closures of older plants, in part because of supply-chain snarls. Another reason: It takes longer to approve their connections to the existing electricity grid. Such new requests neared 3,500 last year compared with roughly 1,000 in 2015, according to research from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Typical time needed to complete technical studies needed for that grid approval is now more than three years, up from less than two in 2015. One renewable-energy developer, Recurrent Energy, filed more than 20 of these grid-connection requests last year in California, a state that needs more clean power to replace several gas-fired power plants as well as a nuclear plant slated for retirement in the coming years. It took the company seven years to get approval and construct a separate battery storage project in that state.”

($) JPMorgan Is Building a Giant Travel Agency. “It bought a booking system, a restaurant review company and a luxury travel agent. It is building its own airport lounges and a force of thousands of travel agents. A new website will launch in the coming months. JPMorgan estimates that its customers account for one of every three dollars spent on leisure travel in the U.S., though those customers book only a tiny amount on the Ultimate Rewards website. With the new offerings, JPMorgan executives believe the bank could capture $15 billion in bookings in 2025, five times what it handled before the recent buildup. That would make it the third-biggest travel agent in the country, based on 2021 volumes, according to industry publication Travel Weekly. The plan has risks. Travel-rewards giveaways have proved expensive for JPMorgan and other banks, and they haven’t always led to the lasting relationships the banks hoped for. JPMorgan also has important corporate partnerships with airlines and hotels that expect the bank to send customers their way. Some of those partners have already complained about the success of Sapphire taking away customers from their cards. The bank is already seeing early signs of that luxury demand. The average price Chase customers are paying for hotels is more than double the industry average, the bank said.”

From legroom to airfare: How JetBlue’s takeover of Spirit could change air travel. If you don’t know how expensive it is to travel domestically in the US, take a trip to Europe and try to fly within the continent. I was really shocked the first time I booked a domestic flight here. I am still shocked sometimes nowadays. There is competition between major airlines, but prices are still high because there is no regulatory pressure on a handful of airlines that fly customers. I don’t know if this merger will help anything. Having another major may drive air fares down. But it could as well join the fun and charge a lot.

US, Japan reaching for a 2-nm chip breakthrough. The race to secure semiconductor supply for the future amidst the political threat from China is more intense than ever. I don’t think China, regardless of whether Xi will be in charge, will give up Taiwan, home to TSMC. It’s not only because TSMC is THE fab of the most advanced chips in the world, but it’s also because China believes Taiwan belongs to them and has no rights to independence. Any nation’s leader will not fulfill their duty if they don’t think about hedging this risk. US and Japan are doing the right thing here. Better late than never.

Ad tracking rules could become much stricter in Europe; Apple’s ATT vindicated. Companies that rely on ads dollars should really pay attention. “This is the single, most important, unambiguous interpretation of GDPR so far. It backs up the approach of Apple.

($) Netflix Is Scrambling to Learn the Ad Business It Long Disdained. “One of Netflix’s goals was to secure a big “minimum guarantee”—a promise that it would get a large influx of ad revenue to limit its financial risk, say people familiar with the discussions. Netflix also hunted for a senior leader with advertising expertise, mindful that it knew little about the business of selling ads. The company approached at least two top Comcast executives for a senior role while the partnership negotiations were continuing with their employer, angering the top brass at the cable giant, some of the people said. Mr. Hastings has set lofty financial ambitions for the ad business. He and other company executives have told investors and ad industry executives privately in recent months that Netflix will eventually be able to charge advertisers about $80 for every 1,000 views of an ad by helping them target specific audience segments, people familiar with the discussions said. That would put Netflix among the most expensive destinations for ads, alongside top NFL television programming. Creating an advertising-supported tier isn’t the only about-face the company is making in its quest to revive growth. After years of treating password-sharing by customers as a marginal problem—Mr. Hastings said in 2016 he loved the practice—Netflix plans to begin charging households a sharing fee sometime in 2023.

Chip Makers Have a Message for Car Makers: Your Turn to Pay. The ever-growing demand for chips turns the negotiation tables around. Chip manufacturers now command more bargaining power than they ever have. Car producers have no choice but either put up or shut up. As every car company is now racing to bring electric vehicles and trucks to the market, they won’t shut up.

Other stuff I find interesting

Some wonderful photos of my country taken by an award-winning photographer

US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor design. I understand that there are concerns over safety and nuclear waste, but nuclear is perhaps the best tool at our disposal to generate clean energy at scale to accommodate the ever increasing demand. I wonder how and/or if this step would help increase the use of nuclear power

Who Is Collecting Data from Your Car? An eye-opening read on the vehicle data world

Tails, You Win. Now that I think about it. Love is just pure dumb luck. The person that you fall in love with happen to love you back. If you manage to fall in love and spend the rest of your life with the same person, creating happy moments and sharing wonderful children and grandchildren, that’s as taily as tails get.

Biden wants an industrial renaissance. He can’t do it without immigration reform. As an immigrant myself, I can tell you that if I had known what I do now, I would not have come to the US. The immigration process here is very talent-unfriendly. The country pours billions of investments into technology, yet the immigration system is antiquated and undoes all the good that such investments bring. To secure the future of the US, the government needs to massively and quickly reform its immigration

Hidden menace: Massive methane leaks speed up climate change. It’s horrifying to learn that we are pumping an incredible amount of this polluter into the air while knowing that it can speed up climate change significantly.

The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China. I could hardly believe what I read. A promising battery technology took a dozen US scientists, 6 years and millions of taxpayers’ money to be developed. Then, the Department of Energy transferred the technology to a company based in China where it is currently further developed and produced

Stats

HALF of the nation’s clean power is generated by nuclear energy

Gen Z has led all generations in terms of 30-59 day credit card delinquency this year, according to Vantage Score

OnlyFans has 200 million registered users

Globally, only 9% of plastic waste is recycled while 22% is mismanaged

AWS – What a business!

AWS, AWS, AWS

The importance of AWS to Amazon cannot be overstated.

Covid-19 was a blessing to Amazon between Q2 FY2020 and Q2 FY2021, boosting its top line significantly. As the economies opened up, folks got back to the stores and the YoY comparisons were clearly tough, growth became so much harder to find. North America’s 10% YoY growth this quarter is the lowest I have seen in the last five years. International took a 12% plunge after growing 38% and 36% in the same period in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Both segments reported negative operating margin, the third quarter in a row.

Amazon's Business Segment YoY Growth
Figure 1 – Amazon’s Business Segment YoY Growth

Meanwhile, this quarter saw AWS take home $19.7 billion in revenue, brining the turnover in the last twelve months to a tad more than $72 billion. Despite a rapid increase in scale, AWS still clocked in 30% YoY consistently in the last year and a half! Although the business only made up 16% of the parent company’s revenue, AWS was responsible for all of Amazon’s operating margin when North America and International were in the red. Traditionally, AWS has been the engine powering Amazon’s profitability. Now, it carries the company’s revenue growth as well.

For good measure, AWS’s potential is as good as its current numbers. While quarterly revenue is now almost at $20 billion, AWS has long-term commitments (from contracts of at least one year in length) of more than $100 billion. These commitments have never grown less than 48% YoY since they were first reported back in 2018. If we compare this unearned revenue to the rolling last twelve month sales of AWS, the ratio grew from 75% in Q4 FY2018 to 139% currently. It means that AWS has the last twelve month sales and 39% on top of that in unearned revenue!

AWS Quarterly Revenue & Unearned Revenue Commitments
Figure 2 – AWS Quarterly Revenue & Unearned Revenue Commitments

Amazon management knows that they have a gem in possession and they are spending money to keep that gem. Let’s look at it this way. AWS sales in the last twelve months totaled $72 billion. The company is trading at $1.25 trillion today. The market capitalization is about 17.4 LTM sales. If we project the next twelve months’ sales is about $83 billion, the multiple is 15. Some argue that means we get the Retail business for free and like it or not, they may have a point!

In 2021, the company splashed $24 billion on technology infrastructure which includes support for AWS. They planned to increase total capital investments in 2022 and more than half would go to infrastructure. It’s not certain that more CAPEX would mean more growth or revenue. But it’s a positive sign that a company is willing to open its checkbook to deepen the moat of its star business.

Andy Jassy, the current CEO of Amazon and the man credited with the success of AWS, said previously that Amazon actually stumbled upon this amazing business. At the beginning of the 2000s, after working diligently to improve the internal tools that supported the eCommerce site, Amazon realized that they were really good at running infrastructure services. It took three more years of planning and preparation after such realization before the company launched what is now a highly important and lucrative business in AWS. What a serendipitous discovery!

Amazon’s financials through charts

Amazon is the last of the big techs to report earnings. You can find its press release here. I’ll show my notes through the charts below. In short, AWS, advertising and Prime’s price hike are the only bright spots while the rest could be best characterized as concerning, if not downright disappointing. Of course, Amazon is famously playing the long game, but as FCF is significantly down while ex-AWS revenue is tremendously down, management needs to send some positive signals soon.

Revenue’s growth decelerated significantly after being boosted by Covid

Amazon's revenue and growth

International sales dipped for the first time while AWS continues its hot streak, recording more than $62 billion in revenue in 2021

North America, International and AWS revenue

Both North America and International were in the red in Q4 FY2021. AWS is the sole reason why Amazon has a positive operating margin

Amazon's operating income

North America and International have seen decreasing growth for the last three quarters. International even contracted in Q4 FY2021. AWS is impressive

North America, International and AWS's YoY revenue growth

Online Stores contracted modestly in Q4 FY2021

Amazon's business segments YoY growth

Negative TTM Free Cash Flow

Amazon Trailing Twelve Month FCF

Amazon spent $72 billion in shipping costs in 2021. It crossed $20 billion a quarter mark in Q4 2021

Amazon's shipping costs

Amazon spent more than $13 billion in Video and Music expenses

Amazon's video & music expense

Amazon through charts

Amazon’s revenue growth slowed down significantly in the last 6 months after being pulled forward by Covid-19; which may explain the timid growth of their stock price

Amazon's revenue growth

AWS is now a $56 billion annual run-rate business. This run-rate is actually based on real figures

Quarterly revenue of Norther America, International and AWS

AWS continues to be the margin machine for Amazon. International went back to the red after 5 quarters in the black

Segment and total operating margin

Advertising is Amazon’s 4th biggest revenue stream

Amazon's business segments' revenue

Advertising, AWS and Subscriptions are the top 3 growing segments of the company

Segments' revenue growth

Amazon has been investing heavily in the last 6 months, hurting their Free Cash Flow

Amazon's free cash flow trailing twelve months

Shipping costs as % of Online Stores & 3rd-party Marketplace have been increasing. The shipping cost can make it difficult for competition to catch up

Amazon's shipping costs

The Amaz(on)-ing story continues

A few days ago, Amazon released the results of their Q1 FY2021 and did not disappoint. You can find their results here. Below are some of my takeaways and charts for illustration purposes

A growing giant

This is the first quarter where Amazon’s average 4-quarter rolling net sales exceeded $100 billion. Think about the scale for a month. In other words, for the past 365 days, Amazon generated more than $1 billion per day on average. What’s more impressive is that their YoY growth has been on an upward trajectory for the past few quarters, hitting 44% in the recently reported one. That’s the kind of growth you often see at companies at a much smaller scale, not a company that is well on track to produce half a trillion dollars in sales a year.

Amazon's YoY growth in revenue

I don’t know where their next growth will come from and that may be the scary thing about this behemoth

Among the three main segments, North America is the biggest in net sales, almost double the combined figures from AWS and International. Bewilderingly, it has been growing at a higher clip than AWS in the past four quarters, lacking behind International, whose YoY growth just hit an astounding 60% in this quarter. If you look at the segments’ size, their growth figures and growth trajectory, it’s not straightforward to say which one will drive Amazon’s growth in the future. If Amazon can crack the Grocery and Last-Mile code in the US, it will be huge for their North America numbers. In terms of International, there is still a lot more to gain. Take Vietnam as an example. My country’s retail market is huge and growing fast. Yet, there is no such equivalent of Amazon. There are indeed big players such as Shopee, Tiki or Lazada, but they are eCommerce players and the breadth of their offerings isn’t as extensive as what Amazon can offer. Plus, if you ever try the apps of these companies, you’ll chuckle and say to yourself: if somebody can offer a better shopping experience, there is a lot of money to be made here. Lastly, global companies are going through digital transformation, a trend that is accelerated by Covid. It’ll be a boon to AWS’ business.

There are bull cases to make for each of these segments. I honestly cannot tell where the next growth will come from. Not because there isn’t. But because there are more than one obvious answer. For good measure, all three are now profitable. International used to be the black sheep, but it has been profitable for the past four quarters.

Amazon's North America, International and AWS YoY growth in revenue

Amazon's North America, International and AWS 4-quarter revenue rolling average
Amazon's North America, International and AWS Operating Margin

Advertising and 3rd party are growing fast, but don’t sleep on physical stores

Among the business lines, 3rd party and advertising, both high-margin, were the fastest growing with the former growing at 64% YoY and the latter at 70% in this quarter. At $80 billion annual run-rate, 3rd party is highly impressive, growing at 64% YoY. Amazon doesn’t break down 3rd party for domestic and international markets, but it’s not strange to think that as Amazon gains foothold in more overseas markets, more merchants will want to get on the platform. Meanwhile, advertising almost reaches a run rate of $25 billion, growing 4x in the last 3 years. Impressive as it is, there is still plenty of room to grow, both domestically and internationally. As Amazon’s online stores attract millions of buyers, advertisers will be interested in promoting their products or services on a platform where the intention to buy is high.

Amazon's business lines' revenue growth

Even though physical stores’ growth doesn’t look particularly great, don’t sleep on them. Physical stores were first reported by Amazon in 2017. They are relatively new and I consider them strategic investments from the company. Amazon will not be able to compete with Walmart in groceries’ scale and the network of stores as well as fulfillment centers across the country. Hence, they will likely use technology and efficiency in delivery as competitive advantages. Hard to pull off, cashierless stores will save Amazon on personnel costs and provide a differentiated shopping experience for customers. They may also play a role in Amazon’s network of middle and last mile delivery. Eventually, customers may still receive cheaper groceries from Walmart, but some may be more interested in a different shopping experience and expedited delivery from Amazon.

In the United States, we’re delivering out of our Whole Foods stores, and we’ve engaged — we’ll be allowed to pick up a greater expansion of pickup at Whole Foods stores. Amazon Fresh became a free Prime benefit, as you know, in the late part of 2019. And customers really adopted it and continue to see strong growth. So I think on the fresh stores, it’s a little too early. The stores themselves, we’re confident that the Just Walk Out technology that will be a boon, a benefit to customers.

Source: Amazon’s CFO from Q1 FY 2021 Earnings Call

Bezos is stepping down and Amazon is in a great shape

Arguably few have made headlines this week more than Jeff Bezos, the founder and current CEO of Amazon. The company announced yesterday that Bezos was stepping down in Q3 this year and is going to be replaced by Andy Jassy, the boss of AWS. While it is surprising, I hardly find the news shocking. Bezos hasn’t been on the company’s earnings calls for years. He appeared in front of Congress last year, showing that he didn’t know in details the company that he founded and is still running. To be clear, I don’t blame him. If he doesn’t spend much time in the office yet rather spends it on other projects that interest him and the company still does exceptionally well, why not? In his letter to the whole company, Bezos said:

I’m excited to announce that this Q3 I’ll transition to Executive Chair of the Amazon Board and Andy Jassy will become CEO. In the Exec Chair role, I intend to focus my energies and attention on new products and early initiatives.

As much as I still tap dance into the office, I’m excited about this transition. Millions of customers depend on us for our services, and more than a million employees depend on us for their livelihoods. Being the CEO of Amazon is a deep responsibility, and it’s consuming. When you have a responsibility like that, it’s hard to put attention on anything else. As Exec Chair I will stay engaged in important Amazon initiatives but also have the time and energy I need to focus on the Day 1 Fund, the Bezos Earth Fund, Blue Origin, The Washington Post, and my other passions. I’ve never had more energy, and this isn’t about retiring. I’m super passionate about the impact I think these organizations can have.

Source: Amazon

If you’re more interested in the strategic direction of the company and side projects, why not giving opportunity to someone else who is hungry for the top job and to manage the day-to-day operation. Plus, I don’t imagine he enjoyed being called to testify in front of Congress, especially when the regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies has intensified. And I think Amazon is in a great shape to continue to grow with the new CEO. Here is why:

Amazon recorded $125 billion in sales in Q4 FY2020, making its four-quarter rolling average revenue now almost $100 billion. For Q1 FY2021, Amazon’s guidance is to generate between $100 and $106 billion in revenue. More impressively, the quarterly revenue grew at least 37% YoY each. In terms of major business segments, North America is still the biggest piece of the pie, yet it still outgrows International and AWS. The latter is now a $45 billion run-rate business. Looking deeper at the business lines, Online Stores, 3rd Party Marketplace and AWS are still the three biggest, but the fastest growing is Advertising, which stands at the run rate of $21 billion. In terms profitability, Amazon used to run in the red with International. Not any more. International has been profitable for the last 3 consecutive quarters, making all three major business segments of Amazon profitable.

Furthermore, Amazon in Q4 FY2020 posted $31 billion free cash flow TTM, which is only slightly less than 50% of their operating cash flow TTM. It implies a heavy CAPEX back into the business. Also, Amazon, on average, spends about $15 billion a quarter on shipping costs, which constitutes around 23% of the combined sales of its Online Stores and 3rd Party Marketplace. While it’s a lot of money, if it helps Amazon achieve great services and customer satisfaction in multiple markets, it will be a tough challenge for anyone who wants to compete with them.

In my view, the results that Amazon boasted are nothing, but highly impressive. The company has a stellar reputation with consumers and owns the relationship. That’s why it can sell advertising, subscriptions, its own goods and goods of other parties. There are still a lot of room to grow. Not only can it still gain market share in the retail market in the US, but it can also expand internationally into more countries and continue its current profitability overseas. AWS can still grow, especially when Covid-109 has spurred companies to become digital. The brand, the scale and the infrastructure that Amazon put in place are gigantic advantages that aren’t easy for challengers to overcome. The culture that Bezos has instilled in the last 27 years is still there and even though he is passing the CEO torch, he is still around to take actions, if necessary.

Amazon's revenue and YoY growth
Figure 1 – Amazon’s 4-quarter rolling average in Revenue and quarter YoY Growth
Amazon Business Segments' Revenue
Figure 2 – Amazon’s Business Segments’ Revenue
Amazon's business segments' revenue
Figure 3 – Segment Revenue
Amazon's Operating Margin
Figure 4 – Amazon’s Operating Margin
Figure 5 - Amazon's Free Cash Flow TTM
Figure 5 – Amazon’s Free Cash Flow TTM
Amazon's Shipping Costs
Figure 6 – Amazon’s Shipping Costs

Weekly readings – 31st October 2020

What I wrote last week

Though AWS slowed, Amazon didn’t

My thoughts on Apple after their latest quarter and the last fiscal year

Business

Take-away lessons during the first 6 months of a Shopify employee. I find the read helpful, particularly the importance of understanding decision-makers’ attitude

From McDonald’s to Google: How Kelsey Hightower became one of the most respected people in cloud computing

Expensify CEO emailed his 10 million customers and asked them to vote for Biden. Though there are some who disagreed with him, they appreciated the openness. This is an example of how it should be done

Technology

Google announced Google One, a bundle that includes a VPN service, 2T of storage on Google Gmail & Drive and other benefits. Currently only available to Android devices in the US

Waymo made an unprecedented move to detail their behind-the-scene work on autonomous vehicles, including crashes and near-misses

What I found interesting

A story of a Uighur at a Chinese concentration camp

A study conducted by a Swedish university concluded that the Republican party has moved towards autocracies for the last 20 years

Brazil’s plan to exploit Amazon responsibly is in danger

A very eloquent, balanced and well-written endorsement for Joe Biden from The Economist

Just a hard breaking story from a Covid survivor in Texas

Though AWS slowed in growth, Amazon didn’t

Amazon continues to amaze me with another blow-out quarter in Q3 FY2020. Their total net sales increased by 37% compared to the same period a year ago, reaching $96 billion, while Operating Income increased by 96% from $3.2 billion in Q3 FY2019 to $6.2 billion this quarter. It’s an extraordinary growth for a company that generated more than $1 billion a day in net sales this quarter. Their gross margin in general didn’t change much from a year ago, but their operating margin increased by almost 200 basis points from 4.5% in Q3 2019 to 6.4% in Q3 FY2020. While the high level margin doesn’t look impressive, the devils are in the details if we look closer at their segments.

If we look at Norther America, International and AWS, all three were profitable this quarter with International, traditionally a money loser, being in the black for the second quarter in a row. AWS continues to be responsible for most of Amazon’s operating income as it carries a sweet 30% operating margin, compared to a meagre low single-digit from the other segments. Interestingly, AWS’s growth was the slowest among the three segments, recorded at 29%, compared to 39% of North America and 37% of International.

Source: Amazon

If we look at the results at a deeper level, specifically at the breakdowns into Online Stores, Physical Stores, AWS, 3rd party marketplace, Advertising and Subscriptions, the only area with negative growth in revenue is Physical Stores. 3rd party marketplace, Advertising and Online Stores notched the biggest growth, in that order, followed by Subscriptions and AWS. Regarding Subscriptions, Amazon reported that Prime now has 150 million subscribers with the service coming to its 20th country in Turkey.

Internationally, the number of Prime members who stream Prime Video grew by more than 80% year-over-year in the third quarter, and international customers more than doubled the hours of content they watched on Prime Video compared to last year.

Source: Amazon Q3 FY 2020

Even though Amazon is the master of operating at scale, innovating and squeezing efficiency from every step, I do think the expansion of Prime internationally helps with the increased performance of the International segment which has been profitable in two consecutive quarters. Of course, the decision makers at Amazon have data to see which markets can be improved by launching a high-margin subscription that makes customers stick around longer and shop more. So I wouldn’t surprised if Prime played a role in bolstering the profitability of Amazon’s International segment. So far, there are only 20 countries where Amazon Prime is available. When that number gets bigger, I predict that Amazon will be even bigger and more profitable than it already is; which is both admirable and scary.

When it comes to Amazon, advertising is unlikely the top 3 or 5 services that come to mind. Nonetheless, the segment brought in almost $5.4 billion this quarter, at the growth rate of a whopping 51%. To put that in consideration, neither Pinterest, Twitter nor Snapchat recorded even $1 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter (all of these companies reported results this month). Even Microsoft’s search advertising revenue this quarter was at only $1.8 billion, down from about $2 billion from the year before. As Amazon has an excellent relationship with customers (in general) and customers, when searching, already have intention to buy, this advertising business will not stop here. In fact, I do think it will continue to grow nicely in the future. A short while ago, I wrote about Amazon Shopper Panel, a new initiative by Amazon. The service will compensate shoppers if they send the company 10 eligible non-Amazon at-store receipts every month. This initiative, if done well, will empower Amazon with an unparalleled understanding of consumers, down to even the line items of a receipt. This understanding will bolster their advertising machine even more.

Source: Amazon

Amazon admitted that 2020 has been a big year for capital investments. The company aims to grow its fulfillment and logistics network by 50%, plowing around $12-13 billion in CAPEX this quarter or over $30 billion so far in 2020. That is an extraordinary amount of money allocated in growing assets. Not many companies even have that kind of numbers in revenue, let alone CAPEX. On top of that, Amazon reported that its shipping costs reached $15 billion this quarter. Fulfillment and shipping are hard as they are resource-intensive and require a mastery in operations to achieve the necessary efficiency. Any competitor that wishes to challenge Amazon needs to have a pocket deep enough to absorb these expenses; which constitutes a competitive advantage for the biggest e-Commerce player in the US. In the end, how many companies in the world could claim they generated $55 billion in trailing 12-month (TTM) Operating Cash Flow or $29 billion in trailing 12-month free cash flow?

In short, the business looks to be in a fantastic shape with amazing growth at a massive scale. Plus, there is plenty of room to grow for Amazon in the future with International expansion, Prime in more markets and advertising. Jeff Bezos is now a $200 billion man. I won’t be surprised if he reaches $300 billion in net worth in the future.

Weekly readings – 12th Sep 2020

What I wrote

Three documentaries that I think will intrigue and interest you intellectually

Business

FT’s interview with Reed Hastings that gave some insights into Netflix’s culture

Contactless penetration in the US is around 5-6% while that in non-US markets is around 66%, according to Visa

Bessemer Venture Partners shared their internal memos on several investments, including those in Wix, Shopify or LinkedIn

Although interested viewers need to become a Disney+ subscriber and have to pay $30 for premier access to watch Mulan, the movie reportedly garnered $33 million in its opening weekend

An extensive investigation in Nikola and its CEO

WSJ’ profile of Alphabet CEO – Sundar Pichai

The Athletic says it hits 1 million subscribers after surviving sports shutdown

For a company whose most users are female, Pinterest has a working culture designed to instead favor men

A brief profile of Andy Sassy, the CEO of AWS

Though it has made significant strides in automated driving, owners should not rely on Tesla’s driver assistance features to necessarily add safety or to make driving easier, based on Consumer Reports’ extensive testing and experience. 

Most features within Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability suite worked inconsistently, including the Autopark self-parking system that has been around for several years.

Source: Consumer Report on Tesla

Technology

TikTok revealed some details regarding their highly regarded algorithms

A brief overview of the new changes to the App Store guidelines

What I found interesting

The True Story of Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore

An excellent study on the impact of Covid-19 policies on the economic recovery

US households spent only 40% of the first and only stimulus check so far. Some used up the check while others didn’t use it at all